Editors note: Today Scott Solomon guest blogs for WaiverSharks, shooting from the hip about why he feels you should consider passing on many top MLB Fantasy Baseball Closers when drafting your 2010 Fantasy Baseball team.
No doubt, many MLB Closers dance to a different beat. But does this look like a man you want to anchor your 2010 Fantasy Baseball team around?
By Scott Solomon
If you read any fantasy guide – almost all of them will tell you closers are a volatile bunch and to be careful. But when you see closers start to fly off the board it’s hard to avoid the instinct of jumping into the fray.
We are here to tell you - DON’T DO IT!!!
They aren’t going to help your team. Head to Head leagues are all about one thing: making the playoffs. It’s ok to give up a stat like saves in the early part of the year. You want to stay close to .500 through the first couple months and concentrate on that waiver wire – frequenting Waiversharks.com to guide you the right way.
My league is setup as a Yahoo! 6X6 head-to-head league with 10 keepers. 25 man rosters. For the purpose of this analysis I consider keepers rounds 1-10 and the 11th round is effectively the first round.
Last year in my league 264 saves came from 13 waiver pickups – for an average of 20.3. Compare that to the 15 guys picked in rounds 11-17 who only accounted for 363 – or an average of 24.2. Rounds 18-25 are where you can really pick up some value. 5 guys from those rounds ended up producing 173 saves for an average of almost 29/guy.
Admittedly there were many other setup guys/ fantasy baseball closers picked in those rounds, but that’s the time of the draft where you can really take some chances. You should really be counting on a keeper or early round draftees to contribute to your team. Why waste a valuable pick when you can get equal value on the waiver wire or taking a flier on a late round guy.
What about keepers?
You can see in the chart below how little effect fantasy baseball closers selections have on the outcome of a team. (Keepers considered a 5th round pick, waiver wire 30th round) If anything, the earlier pickers fared worse!
There were 150 saves from 6 keepers for an average of 31.66. If you are lucky enough to have top 5 closer with a long history of injury free seasons, you might as well hold on to him – he’s not going to hurt you. But temper that with avoiding the mid-round guys. And avoid taking more than 2 fantasy baseball closers. Last year two teams selected 4 closers, they finished 9th and 11th. .
Not good.
Three teams selected/or kept 3 closers – both made the playoffs but that was probably overkill. One of those teams kept the zany and multi-talented Jonathan Papelbon – which was a fine move, but then selected Big Broxton and new Tigers
closer Jose Valverde in the 11th and 14th round respectively – those two accounted for 61 saves.
Through the course of the season they were able to pick up both Andrew Bailey and Fernando Rodney for a total of 63 saves. They ended up losing in the championship round – they probably would have been better off picking a different position in the 11th and 14th round.
Another 3 closer team kept Mariano Rivera and Joe Nathan and then followed up with Francisco Cordero in the 14th round. They made the playoffs easily but had an early exit in the first round losing 8 to 4– especially with Tommy Hanson and Clay Buchholz still on the board. Closers had zero effect. The league winner selected 3 closers – including Mike Gonzalez in the 15th round.
What did he get for that?
10 measly saves! And only 1 after the all-star break! It’s tough to criticize because the guy won the league, but he added little value to his team by selecting a closer in the 15th round. He was able to find much better value in the 16th and 18th rounds (Brian Wilson and Frank Francisco) and the waiver wire (Carlos Marmol).
The conclusion is these teams added zero value by selecting a third closer!
The third place team selected 2 guys (Jason Motte in round 15 – a lot of help there) but found a lot of value with 26 saves from Leo Nunez in round 19 (thanks to a Waiversharks.com tip). The fourth place team selected 1 closer in the 18th round. He finished the regular season first overall but then was blown out in the 2nd round 9-2. Again – closers had little effect on the outcome.
The fifth place team selected 2 closers as well. (Chris Ray in the 13th, and Devine in the 17th) Both of these busts contributed nothing, but he was able to find significant value on the waiver wire with David Aardsma and Ryan Franklin and then through a trade. The 7th place team didn’t pick a closer – however he started the first 8 weeks of the season with a .368 winning percentage - So, hardly the fault of a not drafting a closer.
Editor's Interesting “bad karma” final thought:
Will those who draft K-rod in the early rounds get stung in 2010?
Why must you beseech me!!!!!?????
It may not be equivalent to the videogame Madden Football
, or Sports Illustrated cover
curse – but now that Frankie Rodriguez is our main page bobblehead
- Fantasy gurus everywhere may want to begin summoning the Gods of the waiver wire to drop them another answer! After all, both former WaiverSharks cover bobbles – the Pirates
Zach Duke, and the A’s Daric Barton hardly went on to Hall of Fame seasons since they adorned Bobblehead Daze!
Keep checking back daily as all sorts of MLB bobble heads
And that’s not all! When the Ports play host to the Rancho Cucamonga Quakes on Saturday July 17th, once again the first 1000 fans will receive another really cool bobblehead – this time the (SGA) stadium giveaway is of the Stockton Ports center fielder Grant Desme!
 
If Better off Ted ends up cancelled after two seasons, it would be an absolute travesty. I found Season One to be VERY good – especially if you dig fast paced, quirky comedies. BOT the second season has only gotten Better (off Ted) with nearly every witty line in each episode being a well crafted zinger!
Too bad, because the entire leading cast is dynamite. Portia del Rossi in particular may even bring home some Emmy hardware if this show is allowed to continue to grow. Even actors with smaller roles, like Veridian Dynamics Dr. Bhamba played hilariously by Maz Jobrani have really turned this show up a few more notches this past season.
