Editors note: Today Scott Solomon guest blogs for WaiverSharks, shooting from the hip about why he feels you should consider passing on many top MLB Fantasy Baseball Closers when drafting your 2010 Fantasy Baseball team.

No doubt, many MLB Closers dance to a different beat. But does this look like a man you want to anchor your 2010 Fantasy Baseball team around?

By Scott Solomon

If you read any fantasy guide – almost all of them will tell you closers are a volatile bunch and to be careful. But when you see closers start to fly off the board it’s hard to avoid the instinct of jumping into the fray.

We are here to tell you - DON’T DO IT!!!

They aren’t going to help your team. Head to Head leagues are all about one thing: making the playoffs. It’s ok to give up a stat like saves in the early part of the year. You want to stay close to .500 through the first couple months and concentrate on that waiver wire – frequenting Waiversharks.com to guide you the right way.

My league is setup as a Yahoo! 6X6 head-to-head league with 10 keepers. 25 man rosters. For the purpose of this analysis I consider keepers rounds 1-10 and the 11th round is effectively the first round.

Last year in my league 264 saves came from 13 waiver pickups – for an average of 20.3. Compare that to the 15 guys picked in rounds 11-17 who only accounted for 363 – or an average of 24.2. Rounds 18-25 are where you can really pick up some value. 5 guys from those rounds ended up producing 173 saves for an average of almost 29/guy.

Admittedly there were many other setup guys/ fantasy baseball closers picked in those rounds, but that’s the time of the draft where you can really take some chances. You should really be counting on a keeper or early round draftees to contribute to your team. Why waste a valuable pick when you can get equal value on the waiver wire or taking a flier on a late round guy.

What about keepers?

You can see in the chart below how little effect fantasy baseball closers selections have on the outcome of a team. (Keepers considered a 5th round pick, waiver wire 30th round) If anything, the earlier pickers fared worse!

There were 150 saves from 6 keepers for an average of 31.66. If you are lucky enough to have top 5 closer with a long history of injury free seasons, you might as well hold on to him – he’s not going to hurt you. But temper that with avoiding the mid-round guys. And avoid taking more than 2 fantasy baseball closers. Last year two teams selected 4 closers, they finished 9th and 11th. .

Not good.

Three teams selected/or kept 3 closers – both made the playoffs but that was probably overkill. One of those teams kept the zany and multi-talented Jonathan Papelbon – which was a fine move, but then selected Big Broxton and new Tigers closer Jose Valverde in the 11th and 14th round respectively – those two accounted for 61 saves.

Through the course of the season they were able to pick up both Andrew Bailey and Fernando Rodney for a total of 63 saves. They ended up losing in the championship round – they probably would have been better off picking a different position in the 11th and 14th round.

Another 3 closer team kept Mariano Rivera and Joe Nathan and then followed up with Francisco Cordero in the 14th round. They made the playoffs easily but had an early exit in the first round losing 8 to 4– especially with Tommy Hanson and Clay Buchholz still on the board. Closers had zero effect. The league winner selected 3 closers – including Mike Gonzalez in the 15th round.

What did he get for that?

10 measly saves! And only 1 after the all-star break! It’s tough to criticize because the guy won the league, but he added little value to his team by selecting a closer in the 15th round. He was able to find much better value in the 16th and 18th rounds (Brian Wilson and Frank Francisco) and the waiver wire (Carlos Marmol).

The conclusion is these teams added zero value by selecting a third closer!

The third place team selected 2 guys (Jason Motte in round 15 – a lot of help there) but found a lot of value with 26 saves from Leo Nunez in round 19 (thanks to a Waiversharks.com tip). The fourth place team selected 1 closer in the 18th round. He finished the regular season first overall but then was blown out in the 2nd round 9-2. Again – closers had little effect on the outcome.

The fifth place team selected 2 closers as well. (Chris Ray in the 13th, and Devine in the 17th) Both of these busts contributed nothing, but he was able to find significant value on the waiver wire with David Aardsma and Ryan Franklin and then through a trade. The 7th place team didn’t pick a closer – however he started the first 8 weeks of the season with a .368 winning percentage - So, hardly the fault of a not drafting a closer.

Editor's Interesting “bad karma” final thought:

Will those who draft K-rod in the early rounds get stung in 2010?

Why must you beseech me!!!!!?????

It may not be equivalent to the videogame Madden Football, or Sports Illustrated covercurse – but now that Frankie Rodriguez is our main page bobblehead - Fantasy gurus everywhere may want to begin summoning the Gods of the waiver wire to drop them another answer! After all, both former WaiverSharks cover bobbles – the Pirates Zach Duke, and the A’s Daric Barton hardly went on to Hall of Fame seasons since they adorned Bobblehead Daze!

FANTALYTICS – VOLUME 5

Joakim Soria vs Mariano Rivera

By Adam Forsyth

Welcome to the latest version of FANTALYTICS! Subscribe to Fantalytics RSS Feed

In this edition, we will look at two premier closers at opposite ends of their careers. One in the twilight of his career with his name firmly placed amongst the greatest of all-time, and one young buck looking to establish himself, and slowly etch his name in the premier granite of fantasy elite closers.

On the surface, both are present day top-tier options, and while one closes for a team that many consider World Series favorites, the other closes for a team that will probably continue to battle to avoid being basement dwellers. This has become a position that they have comfortably settled in for over a decade – which may make some think that this case is a classic “Open-Close” type battle. However, here at Waiversharks.com we believe that there is always more underneath the surface of the ocean and if you look deep into the dark blue waters, you’ll open yourself up to a whole new fantasy world.

FANTALYTICS takes pride in making sure that every nook and cranny is investigated before putting our seal of approval and will take no case lightly. I welcome you all to remove your pre-conceived notions and enjoy the read before understanding this edition entitled: The Case of the Closer – Old vs. New.

The Case for Joakim Soria

At only 24-years of age, The “Mexicutioner” has risen above the expectations of the baseball world, which includes the two teams that previously owned his rights prior to settling in Kansas City. I’m sure that while the Dodgers are fine now with Jonathan Broxton closing out games and San Diego isn’t concerned with giving Heath Bell a shot at replacing Trevor Hoffman; however, both teams couldn’t foresee the impact and confidence that the dynamic Chicano exudes on the mound. It’s safe to say that after swiping him in the Rule 5 draft of 2006, Soria’s stock has taken a tremendous jump.

Read More....

Sleepers: NL CENTRAL

HOUSTON ASTROS

DIVISION RANK : 1 (MLB RANK : 9)

Closer – Jose Valverde – I’m not sure how anyone else felt about Jose after his impressive 47 save campaign, but he followed that up with another stellar season of 44 saves. While his peripherals were up across the line for the most part, his K/BB ratio improved slightly. Concern can be raised for the amount of long balls that he tends to give up, but overall Valvarde has moved into the top third of the leagues closers.

Grip on Closers Role – Extremely Firm

Injury Concerns – Minimal

Next in Line – LaTroy Hawkins, Doug Brocail

Waiversharks.com Deep Sleeper Candidate – In a bullpen followed by average arms, it wouldn’t necessarily be crazy to consider Fernando Nieve as a longshot. He at least has decent enough stuff to be given a shot ahead of the veterans mentioned above. At 26, it is time for Nieve to make the club out of the spring and with a tad of experience in the last year or so closing out games at AAA Round Rock, Fernando may be a short-term solution for a desperate Astros team.

Even Deeper…The baseball world may not know much about Samuel Gervacio at the moment, but we soon may have our eyes opened to this 24-year old Dominican prospect. With 23 saves over the past two minor league seasons, he has racked up 200 big K’s over 151.1 innings. Deep? Perhaps, but with impressive lines like that, tied in with the fact that he doesn’t walk an absurd amount of batters, nor give up the big hit (only 10 HR’s allowed over the same timeframe) Gervacio may be the answer upon the expiration of Valverdes’ contract at the end of this season.

CHICAGO CUBS

DIVISION RANK : 2 (MLB RANK : 12)

Closer – Carlos Marmol – There is no questioning the goods of his stuff; however, Marmol may be best suited remaining a set-up man in the Windy City . With Kerry Wood flying the coop, Marmol is the likeliest candidate to inherit the job on a team that is anticipating a big season. Expect lots of K’s and batters looking silly swinging aimlessly, it will surely come down to the mental toughness of the 26-year old to determine how many games he can close out. With the under-rated Kevin Gregg in the wings, it should make a good case for the competition to garner the title of Cubbies’ closer.

Grip on Closers Role – Firm

Injury Concerns – Slight

Next in Line – Kevin Gregg, Jeff Samardzija

Waiversharks.com Deep Sleeper Candidate – Neil Cotts is a solid if not under-valued lefty that can provide the Cubs with the depth that they will require in order to go on a deep playoff run. He can be a workhorse if necessary and provide the team with a dependable back-up plan if the bad stuff hits the fan.

Even Deeper…Without too much in their system, the Cubs are more than likely dependant on attracting free-agent arms to close out games, or with acquiring solid arms via trade. Out of all of their developing arms the one that could be a future closer in our eyes is Stephen Vento. A raw 22-year old pitching prospect, he has only reached high A-ball and notched up 17 big saves along the way. A few years away for sure Vento; if handled properly, could become a legitimate major league arm.

CINCINNATI REDS

DIVISION RANK : 3 (MLB RANK : 13)

Closer – Francisco Cordero – Many knock his ability to be considered a valuable closer, even on a sub-par Reds roster, he has shown that he isn’t a flash in the pan. With mid to upper 90’s fastballs and a solid slider to depend on, Cordero has been dependable racking up 211 saves over his last eight professional seasons. At 33-years old, expect him to increase his save total of last year, and resting on a plus-40 save season.

Grip on the Closers Role – Extremely Firm

Injury Concerns – Minimal

Next in Line – David Weathers, Arthur Rhodes

WaiverSharks.com Deep Sleeper Candidate – Question marks abound in Cincy with a few older arms being depended on and not many other options, look for Jared Burton to possibly step up and make some noise. Effective when the ball was handed to him in various situations it may be a nice opportunity to see how he handles the pressure in a major league game with three outs remaining.

Even Deeper…Making his way through the minor league system Josh Roenicke has been given the opportunity and performed well in locking down 43 games in three seasons and whiffing 160 batsmen in 131.2 innings. He may not be the prototypical closer type, but he has paid his dues along the way. At 26, it may be the year that Roenicke can contribute at the major league level.

PITTSBURGH PIRATES

DIVISION RANK : 4 (MLB RANK : 14)

Closer – Matt Capps – Another box-type closer that has a solid arm and intimidating presence to his advantage, Capps may not get the amount of save opps’ that most teams provide, but he usually makes good on his attempt. After dealing with an injury shortened 2008 season, Capps will return to his role and provide the Bucs’ with the type of stuff that will rest their mind when entering the late innings with a lead. May never be a 40+ save type closer, but he will comfortably settle in at 30-37 saves each year, pending health.

Grip on the Closers Role – Extremely Firm

Injury Concerns – Fair

Next in Line – John Grabow, Tyler Yates

Waiversharks.com Deep Sleeper Candidate – Take a look at Romulo Sanchez and you can see the type of goods that he has are closer worthy. At 24, this big Venezuelan righty has an opportunity if Capps gets derailed again, as the Bucs’ bullpen has as many question marks as the Riddlers’ jacket. Without an overly powering fastball, Sanchez surprises with his control and ability to work the count. May not stand out, but is simply effective in his effort.

Even Deeper…Jesse Chavez is the name that comes to mind when thinking about the Pirates future closer. Thrown into the role last year at AAA-Indianapolis, Chavez impressed by holding hitters at bay (.225 BAA) and punching out more than one batter per inning (70 K’s in 68.2 inn.) and getting a taste of the majors and keeping that rate constant (16K’s in 15 inn.) Chavez and many of the other young arms have an opportunity to make the team should they impress in spring training and while he hasn’t wowed anyone with his showing in winter ball in the Dominican League, Chavez will be ready.

MILWAUKEE BREWERS

DIVISION RANK : 5 (MLB RANK : 15)

Closer – Trevor Hoffman – Can the old man continue to add to his storied career and major league record career saves mark? The Brewers hope so and after the Eric Gagne experiment exploded in their face, they signed the 41-year old in hopes that he could at least be serviceable, since they have struggled to find a replacement for Francisco Cordero. Bernie Brewer hopes to celebrate along with the thousands of inebriated fans leaving Miller Park should the “Hells Bells” afficienado be able to get the three final outs with some sense of regularity.

Grip on the Closers Role – Firm

Injury Concerns – Fair

Next in Line – David Riske, Jorge Julio

Waiversharks.com Deep Sleeper Candidate – Where does Carlos Villanueva stand in the Brewers plans? I for one, believe that his name may be one that comes up when discussing a potential closing candidate. Let’s be honest, Hoffman wasn’t horrible, but wasn’t terrific either. Villanueva has worked hard and limited his walks to improve his K/BB ratio to more than 3:1, all the while keeping the rest of his peripherals in check. I expect big things in 2009, who’s to say that adding closer to his title isn’t possible?

Even Deeper…Omar Aguilar is a potential closer in the making. Resembling former Brewer Salomon Torres, Aguilar has closed out 26 big games over the past two minor-league seasons while sitting down 135 batters over 121.2 innings of A and AA-ball. Many believe that he is on the cusp of being on the opening day roster, and we couldn’t agree more. Expect Aguilar to get a legitimate shot at contributing to the Brewers movement.

ST. LOUIS CARDINALS

DIVISION RANK : 6 (MLB RANK : 26)

Closer – Chris Perez – Could be Perez, could be Franklin . For the sake of who we think it will be, we’ll go with the younger, more closer type arm of Perez. Injury riddled in 2008, Perez seemed to take the closer reins and be running with it, but hit a wall. The off-season controversy hasn’t resolved who Tony LaRussa will call on come the ninth, but we feel even if it does end up being Perez, he could only hold on for a limited amount of time.

Grip on the Closers Role – Paper Thin

Injury Concerns – High

Next in Line – Ryan Franklin, Brad Thompson

WaiverSharks.com Deep Sleeper Candidate – Perez could fall in the ranks and have rookie Jason Motte roll right on by. Motte certainly has the goods to be an effective closer, with a solid debut in 2008. Expected to begin the year as potentially a set-up man, Motte can pitch his way into the closer’s role before the All-Star break. Expect several Cards’ to get the chance to pad their saves stats in what may be a long season in Missouri .

Even Deeper…What is not to love about Noel “Fernando” Salas? This heat-throwing righty pitched incredible in the 2008 season for AA-Springfield and ran up some impressive stats. A 6.25 K/BB ratio is impressive at any level, and while he has a tendency to give way to the long ball (12 HR’s allowed) he racked up 25 saves. To his credit, Salas still has some work to do, but the raw talent is definitely there. The expectation is to have him step up to AAA-Memphis this spring, where they will definitely give him every chance to close out games for the Redbirds.

National League: NL WEST

LOS ANGELES DODGERS

DIVISION RANK : 1 (MLB RANK : 8)

Closer – Jonathon Broxton – Big Box Brox as I like to call him. Broxton is an intimidating 6 foot 4 inch 290 pound fire-baller and has the opportunity to throw his name into the top-tier of closers at the tender age of 24. Broxton was born to close out games and should be able to give the Dodgers as many wins as they give him opportunities.

Grip on the Closers Role – Extremely Firm

Injury Concerns – Minimal

Next in Line – Guillermo Mota, Hong-Chih Kuo

Waiversharks.com Deep Sleeper Candidate – Cory Wade showed that he belongs with the big club after waiting patiently for the opportunity. The slender 25-year old is ready to take the next step and could even enter the season as a set-up man for Broxton should he have a solid spring.

Even Deeper…Josh Roenicke has raised through the minor league ranks and could be a true darkhorse if given the opportunity in La-La Land. He has had solid statistical back to back seasons and may be a threat to take one of the six or seven bullpen spots out of the spring training.

SAN FRANCISCO GIANTS

DIVISION RANK : 2 (MLB RANK : 16)

Closer – Brian Wilson – After many questions were posed as to whether or not he could handle the pressures of being the teams closer, Wilson locked up 41 games for a sub-par Giants team. He may not be the most flashy, but the man that shares his name with a Beach Boy, you’ve got to say he gets the job done.

Grip on Closers Role – Firm

Injury Concerns – Minimal

Next in Line – Bob Howry, Jeremy Affeldt

Waiversharks.com Deep Sleeper Candidate – Sergio Romo was extremely effective last year in his first exposure to major league quality bats. His WHIP of 0.71 and BAA of .138 are more than impressive. Over the 34 innings that he got into action he didn’t give up a hit in more than two-thirds of the games (20 of 29). Wilson has gone through injuries before and should either of the aforementioned vets struggle this 25-year old California native may step in and exceed all expectations.

Even Deeper…With 54 saves over the last two minor league seasons, it appears that the Giants are grooming Daniel Otero as their next lockdown game ender. At 24-years old, he needs to take a major step though to show that he is ready, as he has been toiling in A-Ball to this point. Expect him to at least begin in AA with the Connecticut Defenders and perhaps with a strong showing, reaching AAA at some point. He is still at least a season or two away from any MLB action.

COLORADO ROCKIES

DIVISION RANK : 3 (MLB RANK : 19)

Closer – Huston Street – Considered more of a finesse pitcher than prototypical closer, Street will look to build on his return to form late in the 2008 season after losing his closer’s role in Oakland. Never overpowering, Street depends on a mix of pitches and speeds to stun batters. Expect him to stay sharp as he knows that Corpas is more than capable of the job at hand, which should help him pitch his best. Injuries are always a concern, but Street should be 100% healthy coming into the ’09 season.

Grip on Closers Role – Loose

Injury Concerns – High

Next in Line – Manny Corpas, Taylor Buchholz

Waiversharks.com Deep Sleeper Candidate – Ever since being dealt to Colorado, it seems that Jason Grilli has found his stuff again. While he continues to walk batters at an alarming rate, he still reaches the upper 90’s with his fastball. Tigers fans won’t be happy to hear that he is succeeding; however, on a youthful team such as Colorado, he may have found his niche.

Even Deeper…Steven Register doesn’t provide anything flashy. He doesn’t necessarily strike out too many batters, but he doesn’t walk a lot either (close to a 3:1 K/BB ratio). He does have a tendency of giving up a lot of home runs but has slowly started to keep that in check as well. There is one thing that he does well though and that is pick up saves. After closing out 37 games in 2007 at AA-Tulsa, Register stepped up to AAA ball and locked down 16 games for Colorado Springs over the 2008 season. He could be a sneaker and find his way onto the Rockies roster at some point.

SAN DIEGO PADRES

DIVISION RANK : 4 (MLB RANK : 20)

Closer – Heath Bell – Entering his first Opening Day in being a full-time closer, Bell is a power pitcher that is generally a two pitch pitcher. He won’t surprise too many batters and has been hittable over his career. The Padres are hoping that he is able to make a smooth transition from the MLB save king Trevor Hoffman era. We’ll try to stay optimistic, but it may be a bumpy ride.

Grip on the Closers Role – Firm

Injury Concerns – Minimal

Next in Line – Clay Meredith, Justin Hampson

WaiverSharks.com Deep Sleeper Candidate – Mike Adams could be a guy that would be able to step in and provide a solid game-stopper. An impressive 3.89:1 K/BB ratio shows that he hits the strike zone with consistency and with four seasons under his belt, he may be ready to heed a promotion.

Even Deeper…Greg Burke may be able to make a jump this year, as he has been more than solid in the Padres system the past two seasons. A converted starter, Burke made a smooth transition in 2008 by accumulating 23 saves while striking out 92 in 84 innings of work. Hopefully getting into that many games won’t wear him down and he can make the jump to the big club in 2009 or 2010.

ARIZONA DIAMONDBACKS

DIVISION RANK : 5 (MLB RANK : 22)

Closer – Chad Qualls – After taking over mid-season for a struggling Brandon Lyon, Qualls was either effective and lights out, or very hittable and ultimately forgettable. Arizona’s success may have something to do with how their bullpen fares, but don’t expect too much from Qualls as he has typically been hittable throughout history. With a serviceable threat in Jon Rauch on board, Qualls reign as closer may be short lived.

Grip on Closers Role – Loose

Injury Concerns – Slight

Next in Line – Jon Rauch, Tom Gordon

Waiversharks.com Deep Sleeper Candidate – With the recent free-agent signing of Tom Gordon the D’Backs won’t be hesitant I’m sure to try different options should Qualls struggle. We know that Rauch would be able to do the job, but I see Tony Pena as a real sleeper option here. Hard-throwing 25-year old righty has six career saves and could be another option for Bob Melvin to test along the way.

Even Deeper…With 45 saves over the past 2 seasons, Reid Mahon is being touted as next closer for the D’Backs. While he looked slightly out of place in his first exposure at AAA-Tucson he should make the jump this year and get more seasoning. Arizona can take their time as they have more than enough options already in place to allow this kid the ability to develop properly.

NATIONAL LEAGUE: NL EAST

NEW YORK METS

DIVISION RANK : 1 (MLB RANK : 3)

Closer – Francisco Rodriguez  - After shattering the individual season saves record by recording an incredible 62 games saved, K-Rod jumped ship and went for some money signing in New York. The pressure will be a tad different, and switching numbers (Johan Santana wears number 57) to number 75 may have a mental effect. Just kidding…But don’t expect 62 more saves, a more down to earth 42-48 saves wouldn’t be a surprise though.

Grip on Closers Role – Extremely Firm

Injury Concerns – Minimal

Next in Line – J.J. Putz, Pedro Feliciano

Waiversharks.com Deep Sleeper Candidate – Another piece in the JJ Putz deal, Sean Green may have the ability to close out some games should this totally revamped bullpen collapse beyond recognition. Green is the most likely roster candidate to get a shot to close out a game here or there (vulture saves count too!!!) should injuries take place, or in situations where K-Rod and Putz are unavailable. With this being said only the deepest of deep fantasy drafts should a name like Sean Green be called out.
 
Even Deeper…The Mets have a great looking back end of the bullpen at the moment. Currently they have lots of hard throwing arms that are used to working lots of innings which may hurt a young developing closer. Regardless, 22 year old Eddie Kunz could be their next developed closer. At 6 foot 5 inches, 265 pounds, he is an intimidating hurler that has racked up 34 saves in the last two seasons. His K/BB ratio could improve, but they won’t have to rush him to get him in the majors as they have at least three years of the explosive K-Rod to depend on.

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES

DIVISION RANK : 2 (MLB RANK : 4)

Closer – Brad Lidge – Pure power pitcher, brings it every night. A perfect season last year after being run out of Houston due to mental lapses and struggles, Lidge obviously gets the last laugh. I have always been a big fan and when you can get nearly 100 K’s from your closer, and solid all-around stats, you can deal with a mental lapse here and there.

Grip on Closers Role – Extremely Firm

Injury Concerns – Minimal

Next in Line – Ryan Madson, *J.C. Romero (Suspended first 50 games)

Waiversharks.com Deep Sleeper Candidate – If the Phillies want to test drive anyone that is currently on their 40-man roster, I think that they should give Joe Bisenius an opportunity. Bisenius has above average goods and a near 2:1 K/BB ratio through his five minor league seasons. At 26 he is mature enough to handle situations and could be a nice addition in deep drafts.

Even Deeper… Dynasty leaguers could take a chance on Sam Walls. While Walls was phenomenal in A-Ball, he became slightly erratic in making the jump to AA last year. Expect another year or two of grooming but with a 0.81 ERA, nearly 3:1 K/BB ratio, .152 BAA and a WHIP under 1.00 he will more than likely spend the entire season up a level in preparation for the next jump.

ATLANTA BRAVES

DIVISION RANK : 3 (MLB RANK : 21 )

Closer – Mike Gonzalez – A great arm that has been mangled in recent history to various injuries. Gonzo’s strange delivery that definitely strains his pitching arm is also part of his effectiveness. He has shown that he can be lights out in a closers role, so his success is merely determined by how healthy he can remain.

Grip on the Closers Role – Stable

Injury Concerns – Fair

Next in Line – Rafael Soriano, Buddy Carlyle, Boone Logan

Waiversharks.com Deep Sleeper Candidate – While Manny Acosta isn’t a shocking name, Bobby Cox tested him with success in closing out 3 games last season, so he has had an opportunity in getting the final out. Not an overly powerful pitcher, Acosta would need to work on his control to be given a true shot, as you don’t get too many chances if you can either put the ball in play, or hit the strike zone.

Even Deeper… Luis Valdez accumulated 28 saves last season, while running up a 10.66 K/9INN rate. A flame thrower by trade, Valdez also has a tremendous slider that he can depend on when he needs to throw a strike. Working his fair in winter league ball in his native Dominican Republic, expect another season or two in order to fine tune, but he could be closing Braves games before you know it.

FLORIDA MARLINS

DIVISION RANK : 4 (MLB RANK : 27)

Closer – Matt Lindstrom – What can you really expect from Lindstrom that he hasn’t already shown. He’s a decent pitcher, with decent stuff and who knows, maybe he’ll turn into another Kevin Gregg? Regardless, the Marlins will need a solid bullpen to hold on to games as their starting rotation will keep them competitive. Expect Lindstrom and committee to be used as I’m not sold on him being the only hurler to get the opportunity to close games in Florida.

Grip on the Closers Role – Loose

Injury Concerns – Slight

Next in Line – Leo Nunez, Scott Proctor

WaiverSharks.com Deep Sleeper Candidate – What happened to Taylor Tankersley last season? After showing some strong stuff in the previous two seasons, the Tank took a dramatic step back in his dependability and we at WaiverSharks.com believe that he’s still got enough in the Tank at the tender age of 25 to bring it all back together. Almost anyone in the Marlins ‘pen could be considered a sleeper at this point, but - if anyone,  it could be the University of Alabama southpaw that steps up and grabs the role.

Even Deeper… If anyone in the Marlins system were to make a jump to potentially close games, it would have to be Chris Mobley. Great control, high K/BB ratio of nearly 4.5/1 and an impressive BAA (.224) makes this 25 year old appealing. Mobley's been closing out games within the minor leagues for a couple of seasons now, and with an old closer in AAA, expect him to make a jump this year. He could very well find his way on the major league club at some point.

WASHINGTON NATIONALS

DIVISION RANK : 5 (MLB RANK : 30)

Closer – Joel Hanrahan – Probably the most loose grip on a closers role as you can get this year, Hanrahan had a brief audition last year racking up nine saves; however, he also blew four saves as well. The Nationals will more than likely continue to struggle, and a solid back end of the ‘pen is necessary to collect as many wins as possible. Challengers will rise which will hopefully help the performance, but I see Hanrahan as a more effective set-up man.

Grip on the Closers Role – Loose

Injury Concerns – Slight

Next in Line – Steven Shell, Saul Rivera

Waiversharks.com Deep Sleeper Candidate – Hmmm, you could probably pick any other name in the bullpen, but if I had to select just one “sleeper” candidate to potentially close out games in D.C. I’d have to pick Mike Hinckley. He was very impressive in his debut last season not giving up 0 runs in 13+ innings and showing great control with 3:1 K/BB ratio. Don’t expect anything phenomenal from this motley crew of potential closers.

Even Deeper… Incredibly,  the Nationals have a fairly thin set of pitching prospects which exposes an even more limited stock of closer prospects. If there is one player that sticks out, I’d have to say 24-year old Adam Carr is that name. Slithering his way through the system, he hasn’t been given a shot at the bigs, but perhaps this is the year. He has good control, throws four pitches and has closed out games the past three seasons. Selecting a deep sleeper in this situation is like a needle in a haystack, so use this information with caution.

AL CENTRAL

MINNESOTA TWINS

DIVISION RANK : 1 (MLB RANK : 2)

Closer – Joe Nathan – Watching Joe Nathan entire a game, usually means that it’s lights out for the opposition. Can you believe that this guy was dealt for AJ Pierzynski (oh…along with Boof Bonser and Francisco Liriano!!! OUCH!)

Grip on Closers Role – Extremely Firm

Injury Concerns – Minimal

Next in Line – Jesse Crain, Matt Guerrier

Waiversharks.com Deep Sleeper Candidate – Jose Mijares. This 24-year old left looked solid in a brief audition as a late call-up in September. Without a need to drive a push for a young arm to develop, this Venezuelan can potentially step in as a set-up man while the Twins wait for super set-up man Pat Neshak to get healthy again.

Even Deeper…An arm in the system to watch belongs to (William) Ricky Barrett. Keeping hitters at bay with an impressive .218 BA last season, while racking up 81 big K’s in 70 innings, this lefty has been seasoning his skills in Venezuela for winter ball in hopes of making the big club. If he does; he’ll have a huge mountain to climb, but could one day be a go-to guy for Gardenhire’s Gang.

CHICAGO WHITE SOX

DIVISION RANK : 2 (MLB RANK : 5)

Closer – Bobby Jenks – The box topped Jenks has been extremely effective in his tenure as game ender on the South Side of the Windy City . Expect that to continue through the 2009 season. A couple of nagging injuries and a team-wide sub-standard season held the 275 pounder to only 30 saves, expect a return to a plus-40 save season.

Grip on Closers Role – Extremely Firm

Injury Concerns – Slight

Next in Line – Octavio Dotel, Scott Linebrink

Waiversharks.com Deep Sleeper Candidate – Ehren Wasserman. Shift aside the 7.78 ERA in his second stint of MLB ball and take a deeper look at this 28-year olds minor league stats and you will be impressed. He has shown flashes and had success at every stage thus far in his pro career and is capable of being a surprise piece in a stellar bullpen. He accumulated 7 saves at AAA Charlotte last year, while racking up 42 K’s in 39 innings. With so many weapons, a major falling out would have to occur to get a true shot, but Wasserman is definitely a serviceable option should they need him.

Even Deeper…Jon Link. At 24, Link was able to close an impressive 35 saves in Birmingham (AA) last year, to show that like the Sox, he has plans to challenge Jenks in the near future. Success in the minors doesn’t always translate into MLB success, but this year he should be making the jump to AAA ball and could perhaps be a mid-season call-up.

KANSAS CITY ROYALS

DIVISION RANK : 3 (MLB RANK : 7)

Closer – Joakim Soria – “The Mexicutioner” in my opinion would be ranked even higher if the Royals could get their stuff together and put together more save situations. Expect Soria to continue his rise to the upper-echelon of closers in ‘09

Grip on the Closers Role – Extremely Firm

Injury Concerns – Minimal

Next in Line – Kyle Farnsworth, Joel Peralta

Waiversharks.com Deep Sleeper Candidate – Neal Musser. At 28 this could be a make or break season. He hasn’t looked out of place when with the big club, but with the addition of guys like Kyle Farnsworth and Doug Waechter it appears that the chances are limited that he will truly get a legitimate shot.

Even Deeper… Devon Lowery. This 25 year old righty will make a move this year and could shock some by launching his way up the depth charts. He didn’t get a good enough chance to show if he belongs as a late call-up last season, but we expect some serious growth out of him in ’09.

CLEVELAND INDIANS

DIVISION RANK : 4 (MLB RANK : 18)

Closer – Kerry Wood – The oft-injured former starter brought back some of the lustre with a solid breakout campaign in the role of closer with the Cubbies in 2008. Expect more of the same and by that I mean when he’s not on the DL, he’ll be solid…It’s just a matter of it being more than a 50/50 situation.

Grip on the Closers Role – Firm

Injury Concerns – Extremely High

Next in Line – Rafael Perez, Jensen Lewis

WaiverSharks.com Deep Sleeper Candidate – Jon Meloan. Acquired in the Casey Blake deal, this one-time “future Dodgers Closer” has a real opportunity to make the Indians Opening Day roster and cause a ruckus. Still at only 24, the future is bright for the big Texan. Ideal closer size of 6’3” and a mix bag of tricks, depending on how they treat groom him, he could be the solution if Wood runs into trouble.

Note: WaiverSharks also just got word that prospect Adam Miller could also be heading to the pen. Perhaps this will help rejuvenate and kick start his injury plagued career. He certainly possesses the velocity to be closer, but let’s see how this experiment goes this spring.

Even Deeper…Definitely a project, but the Tribe seems to like what they see so far in Dominican Republic native Luis Perdomo. A hard-throwing slender righty with a style similar to Mariano Rivera, he’s contributed seasons of 81 and 82 K’s in the last two seasons while plowing through the A ball rankings.

DETROIT TIGERS

DIVISION RANK : 5 (MLB RANK : 25)

Closer – Fernando Rodney – It doesn’t seem that the Tigers are willing to fully hand over the reins of their closer role to the mentally shakable Rodney. In his two previous auditions, Rodney has struggled with pitch count and allowing baserunners. Expect a slight move prior to opening day and Fernando in a more comfortable set-up role.

Grip on the Closers Role – Loose

Injury Concerns – Fair

Next in Line – Brandon Lyon, Freddy Dolsi (and of course Joel Zumaya, pending return from another injury)

Waiversharks.com Deep Sleeper Candidate – Ni Fu-Te. While not much is known about the Taiwanese lefty that many consider the equivalent of Hideki Okajima, the Tigers ‘pen has some definite question marks. Should Lyon, or Rodney display signs of inability to close out games on a consistent basis, don’t expect Jim Leyland to sit around and stumble through another disastrous season as his future in the D may be put into scope. Fu-Te has some experience in closing out games and while he doesn’t have necessarily overpowering stuff, he has a couple of things under his belt that make him valuable…Most importantly, control of his pitch location.

Even Deeper…Ryan Perry. Drafted last year, many expect him to be the next big arm in what has quickly become a decimated stock of young power arms. While Perry definitely has the stuff, he surely will need some continued seasoning as he has only one pro season under his belt. Hopefully ownership won’t rush him through and have another power arm that blows out and runs its’ course prematurely. (See Matt Anderson and soon to add to the list, Joel Zumaya)

AL WEST

In 2007, Brian Fuentes lost his closer role to Manny Corpas while pitching for the Colorado Rockies.  Could Jose Arredondo give Fuentes a case of deja vu in 2009? 

LOS ANGELES ANGELS of ANAHEIM

DIVISION RANK : 1 (MLB RANK : 10)

Closer – Brian Fuentes – A unique style of pitcher comes to a team that had a love affair with their energetic closer. Tough gig for sure, but Fuentes is probably breathing a sigh of relief as he has been brought in to be “The Guy” and will have success in a division of all new closers.

Grip on Closers Role – Extremely Firm

Injury Concerns – Slight

Next in Line – Scot Shields, Jose Arredondo

Waiversharks.com Deep Sleeper Candidate – At 30 years old, I don’t necessarily think that Jason Bulger will have a breakthrough type season; however, with 16 saves last year in AAA Salt Lake, he put together enough street cred to have his name thrown into the hat as a potential underdog for a different look bullpen in Anaheim…er, I mean Los Angeles? Um, what are they again? The other two names in my “Next in Line” section above (Shields & Arredondo), will surely get a shot ahead of Mike Scoscia taking a chance; however, without a deep set of closer types ready to step in, Bulger could get some consideration.

Even Deeper…Another Rodriguez??? Can we really call him R-Rod yet? Regardless, the Angels may be grooming a familiar name to close out games in the future. Rafael Rodriguez took a huge step in the right direction, finishing with a stellar 1.86 ERA through 53.1 innings, which he is hoping shapes his path to the major leagues. While we cannot expect him to be as dominant as K-Rod, he still may be the next closer in line.

OAKLAND ATHLETICS

DIVISION RANK : 2 (MLB RANK : 17)

Closer – Joey Devine – What should poolies expect from career long “Closer of the Future”? Well, on a decent A’s team, I’d say that he could be one of the biggest bargains, or one of the biggest busts. The A’s could go with Devine out of the gate and shift to Ziegler or vice versa, so keep a close eye on Spring Training notes. One way or another, one of these closers could rack up 35+ saves with ease, as the A’s tend to create an abundance of save opportunities.

Grip on Closers Role – Loose

Injury Concerns – Slight

Next in Line – Brad Ziegler, Santiago Casilla

Waiversharks.com Deep Sleeper Candidate – Jerry Blevins. Billy Beane has a knack for turning nothing into something and an even greater ability to find diamonds in the rough. With an impressive debut in 2008 (after a cup of coffee in the majors in 2007) Blevins proved that he belonged. Not terribly overpowering, Blevins uses a variety of pitches and his ability to put balls into play to his advantage. At 6’6” he has the ability to approach the plate using different angles to keep batters on their toes, as displayed in his impressive line of 3.11 ERA, a .230 BAA and a great 1.19 WHIP.

Even Deeper…An intimidating bear looking savage by day and a closing machine by night, Gary Carignan has the stuff that makes most teams swoon. Leave it to the A’s for finding this gem in the fifth round after being passed in the amateur draft twice out of UNC. 28 saves last year in A and AA ball, a 12.15 K/9 ratio would rank him up there with the big boys and at only 22, the sky could be the limit. Keep your ears open for this kid, as we think he’s got a bright future ahead of him.

TEXAS RANGERS

DIVISION RANK : 3 (MLB RANK : 28)

Closer – Frank Francisco – Loved for his ability to throw a 2-seam steel chair, the Rangers famed felon is the number one arm in what could be the leagues nastiest (and I don’t mean that in the “good” way either) bullpens. Expect a revolving door at best, unless Francisco shows he can handle it.

Grip on the Closers Role – Loose

Injury Concerns – Minimal

Next in Line – C.J. Wilson, Kazuo Fukimori

Waiversharks.com Deep Sleeper Candidate – Who doesn’t love a flame throwing chubby closer? Rod Beck fans unite!!! Texas minor leaguer Warner Madrigal isn’t your prototypical closer, but he surely has the stuff. A 3:1 K/BB ratio shows that he has no problem with control, and with 35 total saves over the past two seasons (including one in the majors last year), the 6’, 215 pounder has been in line to step up to a greater challenge. This couldn’t be a better year to be in line for the Texas Rangers closer position as he may just get his chance.

Even Deeper…While there may be much to chuckle at in the Rangers bullpen, there is one bit of laughter that may provide more than stress relief. Cue Andrew Laughter and his ability to pitch out of jams. With a system full of potential, the Rangers need some of their kids to step up and step into the big leagues, and we think that this kid may be the one that gets the last laugh.

SEATTLE MARINERS

DIVISION RANK : 4 (MLB RANK : 29)

Closer – Mark Lowe – Hmmm, how does this guy get the ball in the ninth after struggling to find his place in the Mariners bullpen? Trade away J.J. Putz and promise Fantalytics trial number one former closer Brandon Morrow a spot in the rotation and you have what most will call a battle for the right to close a minimal amount of games in Seattle next year. Don’t expect Lowe to hold on all year, as he will probably be replaced after a couple of blown saves only which he will know only adding even more pressure. Yikes…Tough gig for a kid with decent stuff.

Grip on the Closers Role – Paper Thin

Injury Concerns – Minimal

Next in Line – Ray Corcoran, Tyler Walker, Miguel Batista

WaiverSharks.com Deep Sleeper Candidate – With a ballooned ERA many would wonder why Jared Wells has been called upon so frequently during his minor league career. Wells has the stuff, but is a good pitching coach away from having it all come to fruition. The Mariners bullpen definitely has questions marks, perhaps this is a year that a guy like Wells can strike while the pan is hot.

Even Deeper…In a bleak and questionable system that could have used Aaron Heilmann, but chose to dish him without ever throwing a pitch in a Seattle uniform, it appears that at some point, the M’s will need a kid like Shawn Kelley to pan out. At 24 years old, he has been slowly gaining notoriety within their system and could get a legitimate shot at making the big club come Opening Day.

WaiverSharks team member, Adam Forsyth, tackles the zany and volatile world of the Closers position for our Preseason 2009 Rankings - beginning here with the American League - East Division.

Keep your ear to the ground for his remaining MLB Closer break downs, as well as a New WaiverSharks exclusive feature -

"FANTALYTICS"

1. Papelbon (AL E 1)             16. B. Wilson (NL W 2)
2. Nathan (AL C 1)                17. Devine / Ziegler (AL W 2)
3. K-Rod (NL E 1)                 18. Wood (AL C 4)
4. Lidge (NL E 2)                   19. Street (NL W 3)
5. Jenks (AL C 2)                   20. Bell (NL W 4)
6. Rivera (AL E 2)                 21. Gonzalez (NL E 3)
7. Soria (AL C 3)                    22. Qualls (NL W 5)
8. Broxton (NL W 1)             23. Sherrill (AL E 4)
9. Valverde (NL C 1)             24. Percival (AL E 5)
10. Fuentes (AL W 1)           25. Rodney (AL C 5)
11. Ryan (AL E 4)                  26. Perez (NL C 6)
12. Marmol (NL C 2)             27. Lindstrom (NL E 4)
13. F. Cordero (NL C 3)        28. Francisco (AL W 3)
14. Capps (NL C 4)                29. M. Lowe (AL W 4)
15. Hoffman (NL C 5)           30. Hanrahan (NL E 5)

AMERICAN LEAGUE

AL EAST

BOSTON RED SOX

DIVISION RANK : 1 (MLB RANK : 1)
Closer – Jonathan Papelbon – Paps is a shut’em down closer at the back end of one of baseballs’ most feared bullpens. He’s as secure of a closer as you are going to get in todays day and age.
Grip on Closers Role – Extremely Firm
Injury Concerns – Minimal
Next in Line – Takashi Saito, Hideki Okajima
Waiversharks.com Deep Sleeper Candidate – Ramon Ramirez, 27.
Acquired in the Coco Crisp deal from the Royals, Ramirez was added to provide some depth to the relief staff. What he provides is a power arm capable of continuing his career as a strikeout per inning pitcher. Ramirez will be there if the wheels fall off, or should the injury bus set-up shop in front of Fenway Park. However, I’d expect the Sox ‘pen to be nothing short of phenomenal this season.

Even Deeper…If all of the above fail to step up to the mark, look for Chris Smith to see some opportunities as an up and coming reliever in the Red Sox system.

NEW YORK YANKEES

DIVISION RANK : 2 (MLB RANK : 6)
Closer – Mariano Rivera – Now that this lifetime Yank has signed on for another contract, he should be able to help make it a smooth transition to the new Yankee Stadium, in an ultra-competitive division.
Grip on Closers Role – Extremely Firm
Injury Concerns – Slight
Next in Line – Damaso Marte, Edwar Ramirez
Waiversharks.com Deep Sleeper Candidate – Mark Melancon, 23.
Returning from Tommy John surgery, Melancon may be on the path to being the heir apparent to the empire that Mo has created. Don’t expect too much out of this kid yet. But it may be good, in deep keeper leagues, to take a chance. My assumption though, is that he will go down to AA for more seasoning, and perhaps shuffle his way up to AAA ball.

Even Deeper…I’d also look into Alfredo Aceves, who did well in the rotation last year and may get an opportunity if Mariano and company go down.

TORONTO BLUE JAYS

DIVISION RANK : 3 (MLB RANK : 11 )
Closer – B.J. Ryan – This big burly lefty should return to form, after an up and down season in his return in 2008 from Tommy John surgery. With durability an issue, I’m sure that the Jays will be careful in not pushing him to pitch in multiple inning situations.
Grip on the Closers Role – Extremely Firm
Injury Concerns - Fair
Next in Line – Jeremy Accardo, Jason Frasor
Waiversharks.com Deep Sleeper Candidate – Jesse Carlson, 28.
This hard throwing lefty has the stuff to be dominant. He showed the Jays brass that his name can and should be included in the mix should anything go wrong within the bullpen. With a WHIP slightly over 1.00 (1.03) through 60 games last year, Carlson showed signs that he doesn’t like to waste a batter, all the while maintaining nearly a strikeout per inning. (55K’s in 60.0 INN)
 
Even Deeper…Brandon League could also be considered here, as he was once thought to be the “Closer of the Future” for the Jays.

BALTIMORE ORIOLES

DIVISION RANK : 4 (MLB RANK : 23)
Closer – George Sherrill – When Chris Ray went down last year, Sherrill stepped in and proved his worth. The Orioles closer job is his to lose. Minus a tremendous setback, or a rise against from Ray, Sherrill and his flat-brimmed cap will be a common sight locking down games.
Grip on the Closers Role – Stable
Injury Concerns – Slight
Next in Line – Jim Johnson, Chris Ray
WaiverSharks.com Deep Sleeper Candidate – James Hoey, 26.
Should this guy get a hold on his control issues, he could be someone that the O’s can depend on to close out games. He’s got a knack for getting the big out, and can throw a strike when necessary. It would take a lot for him to get the opportunity; however, only in the deepest of leagues would a manager call out Hoey’s name. That is, unless you are counting the holds category.

Even Deeper…Brandon Erbe, and his 98 MPH fastball, sounds like a guy that might be able to take this job, if not late this year, next year.

TAMPA BAY RAYS

DIVISION RANK : 5 (MLB RANK : 24)
Closer – Troy Percival – Percy was dependable when put in the position to end games last year. The Rays did however, need to use a committee approach late in the year when he went down with injuries.
Grip on the Closers Role – Stable
Injury Concerns – Extremely High
Next in Line – Dan Wheeler, Grant Balfour
Waiversharks.com Deep Sleeper Candidate – David Price, 23.
Alright, we know that he is penciled in as the 5th starter in their rotation, however, stranger things have happened. The Rays pitching is a definite strength, and, should Price falter a bit as a starter, I wouldn’t be shocked if Joe Maddon pulls a trick out of the bag, and puts the youngster out in a difficult position. C’mon, he tried it in the limelight of the MLB playoffs, why not in the grind of a 162 game season?

Even Deeper…Jacob McGee is a lefty that lead the minors in K’s in 2006 (as a starter). Problem is, he doesn’t seem to have the stamina to go past 5. With his great stuff that can be compared to a young B.J. Ryan, I smell a closer.