FANTALYTICS – VOLUME 11
AN EARLY PEAK INTO HOT FIRST BASE PROSPECTS FOR 2010
Skip To: Justin Smoak vs. Chris Carter vs. Yonder Alonso vs. Matt LaPorta
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As the season dies down and the fantasy playoff push is in full swing, most leagues trade deadlines have come and gone. The waiver wire is either shut down for the year or as thin as Alexei Ramirez after losing five pounds of water weight during a day/night doubleheader. We here at Waiversharks.com can only think of what the next season will bring and if I can be so frank as to say, we can’t wait for 2010 to come.
It isn’t due to anything other than pure geeked out excitement over the potential that the 2010 rookie crop has to offer and that we love to provide our readers with the early insight to get your mouth dripping with excitement, just like ours…
Dripping with anticipation as if you were sitting in front of a luscious Steak ‘n Shake Pepper Melt sandwich (sorry for the reference; however, I experienced this for the first time last week on a road trip through Ohio and can only pray that Canada can get their act together to bring this quality and cost-friendly burger joint north of the border…I digress) ready to pounce.
It’s hard to accept the end of another great fantasy season; so we don’t want to go down easy. Four heavy hitting first base prospects are under review in this edition of FANTALYTICS in which we will hopefully not let you down.
In honor of the recent cancer diagnosis of long-time Detroit Tiger radio play-by-play Hall of Famer Ernie Harwell, we are going with four guys that can easily earn the call, “That ball is loooooong gone”.
So dig in, get your pencils sharp, and by the way…wipe of the drool left on the table. It’s FANTALYTICS TIME!
The Case for Justin Smoak
After the abysmal start and first-half regression experienced by last years’ manic masher Chris Davis, Justin Smoak had the world at his fingertips and was looking to fit into the Rangers plans for their 2010 opening day roster at first base, if not even a spot when the rosters open up September 1st. Smoak was certainly taking care of business in the Texas League with AA-Frisco, belting away at a .328 clip, popping six HR’s, knocking in 29 runs and with more walks than strikeouts (39 to 35) he was proving on his own that a promotion was certainly in order.
However, en route to the next level, the 6-foot, 4-inch switch-hitting Smoak took a step back in his progression and while it may seem disappointing to see a slump in his performance, it could end up being a blessing in disguise. You see, since Davis was re-called, he has performed better and seemed more comfortable at the plate. Not destroying the ball, (hitting a decent, but unspectacular .267) much more importantly he has reduced his whiffs by nearly a full AB (2.26 AB/K prior to demotion to 3.21 AB/K) in the process.
It has enabled the pressure to be taken off of this 22-year old South Carolina native, as the shift to AAA-Oklahoma City hasn’t been without its’ challenges. The “Smoaker” may have been intimidated, anxious or just plain not ready as the noise became louder and louder that he was bumped up in the ranks. In his nearly 200 AB’s in AAA, his average has deflated down to .244 and he is also showing limited power, with only 4 HR’s and 11 doubles. On the brighter side of things, poolies should revel in the fact that his comfort level at the plate hasn’t been interrupted as he has been able to maintain a solid OBP of .363.
A keen eye for a big switch-hitting bat such as this kid doesn’t pop up every year, so the excitement level of the heights (and distances for that matter) that his bat can bring still outweigh the positive over the negative. While his progression may have been slightly delayed, the Rangers will surely find a spot in their line-up at some point in 2010 for this masher with great plate presence.
The Case for Chris Carter
Don’t let his current struggle to adjust to AAA pitching fool you. The clout previously on display by this future big league base rounder is indeed for real.
Laughing his way through the minor leagues with power numbers that make fantasy owners wake up in the middle of the night screaming his name, this one-time Chicago White Sox prospect (that has been involved in two big major league deals: first, straight up for Carlos Quentin to Arizona, only to be shipped as part of the Dan Haren deal two short weeks later) has multi-position ability on defense, which should only speed up his path to the desperate for power A’s line-up, hopefully for the 2010 season.
The potential for a roster spot must be imminent, as expressed in the “Ode to the A’s” Deep, Deeper and Dynasty article posted a short time ago, the A’s are hard pressed when it comes to offensive production. While I am certain that there is no need to rush him and the thunderbolt he calls a bat, has been in the minor leagues for five years of seasoning and knowing this, the intimidation he brings to the dish would only benefit the other sticks around him.
Sure, my man-love for this 22-year old product of Redwood City, California (how appropriate) may be a little bit on the early side, as he hasn’t had more than 50 AB’s at the AAA level; however, his 39 bombs in 2008 speak volumes for me in achieving credibility, as do his totals throughout his career.
This year, the ball hasn’t been flying off with the same regularity; (only 27 HR’s at post-time) on the other hand, the 42 doubles and two triples certainly make up for any loss of over the wall delights. Oh, and did we mention that, for a slightly big guy (not huge, but just right at 6-4, 220 pounds) he has got decent wheels as well? 13 swipes can certainly translate into the potential for double digit steals at the major league level.
Yes, he’ll probably whiff more than anyone on this list. But, he also takes more free passes than anyone on the list as well, which almost forces you to call the categories a push. Breathe easy, owners feeling the case of another Jack Cust coming on, as his career minor league BA is a respectable .289 through over 2000 AB’s.
It will be hard to provide reasons as why he won’t get a legitimate shot to impress at the next level come 2010, and considering the reduced performances coming out of O-Town the last three seasons, a surge of power could be what the doctor ordered.
The Case for Yonder Alonso

Similar to the potential of the previous 2008 first-round selection (Smoak was selected 11th overall, while the Reds snatched up Yonder four picks earlier at 7) this former Miami Hurricane’s ceiling of potential is sky high.
At only 22-years of age, Alonso has drifted his way up to AA-Carolina after brief stops in rookie ball and A-Ball allowed him to tear up the competition. Proving that he is leaps and bounds above the level, which only continued the trend experienced in his three years racking up stats in his illustrious college career, Alonso appears to be on a slick crash course to competing for a 2010 opening day roster spot.
Yes, Joey Votto is securely holding onto the first base spot; however, don’t you think that the Reds would and should be tempted by adding an additional left-handed power bat to their line-up? The resurgence of Jonny Gomes, and the acquisition of Wladimir Balentien certainly fogs up their plans of what they can do in the outfield slightly; however, moving forward smart owners realize that the Reds can only sit back and watch his production for so long before giving him a rightful shot.
Hitting .297 this season and showing glimpses of power, the launching pad known as the Great American Ballpark and their fans in the right field seats may soon be awed with his raw power. A clean, sharp stroke at the dish and a very selective eye (Alonso ranks on several prospect lists as having one of the best eyes in the minors) contributes to his success and while he doesn’t walk a lot (only 38 BB’s this season) he doesn’t strike out much either (44 K’s) and makes good, solid contact seemingly every at-bat, which allows him to be a successful run producer and all-around team player.
His limiting speed will take away some extra base potential, but it’s hard to ignore a player that can contribute with round trippers, batting average and OBP with the consistency and level of this Florida native.
The Case for Matt LaPorta
More than likely considered for a corner outfield spot than at first, in an all of the sudden young and inexperienced Indians line-up, this important piece of the C.C. Sabathia deal with the Brewers has been playing with confidence since being called up again in late August and given every day at-bats.
This was after struggling at the plate in his first major league exposure early on in the season.
Perhaps it was the confidence builder experienced in AAA-Columbus that was the required medicine to rid him of the funk. One way or the other, LaPorta may not spend another second on the buses of the minor leagues with the way he has played after the Indians cleaned house. While the opportunity opened up partly due to the youth movement being experienced in Cleveland , the main reason is symbolic to the dedication in this 24-year old blue chipper to stick to his guns and use his tremendous work ethic to make himself and his swing that much better.
So, 17 HR’s, 23 doubles and two triples later (in 338 AAA at-bats) LaPorta has looked comfortable in his return to the big club by hitting .286 and looking more comfortable when digging in.
Unfortunately; in his time with the Tribe, LaPorta doesn’t tend to walk with much regularity (five BB’s in 110 plate appearances) which affects his OBP, and may ultimately affect his positioning in the line-up where he has been a staple in slots six through eight with frequency. No doubt, Matt LaPorta still needs to further his plate discipline.
(Maybe he needs to be more like his Aeros Bobblehead which is shown “chillin” with a bottle of water!)
Although he has a power bat that may be more suitable for a prime three-spot, or even hitting clean-up, he must improve his ability to ring fear in pitchers and create more free passes. It will be critical in his development moving forward and in contributing to more inflated fantasy numbers.
FANTALYTICS FINAL CALL
It’s hard to put a group like this together and say that one above the other will shine brighter when no one really knows who if any will be everyday players in 2010. I shall open up the window from the 31st floor of a skyscraper and step out onto the ledge and declare that each of these four will at some point make a contribution to the big club next season, if not by making the opening day rosters.
All four situations are favorable to the players and their level of success to this point indicates that room must be made to see what they’ve got.
Also note that of the four teams that have their rights, only Texas has more than 63 wins and could be considered as a potential playoff team, meaning that an injection of youth may be imminent regardless of the current dynamics of their roster.
With that being said, we are 99.9 percent positive that Matt LaPorta will be there to shine everyday in Cleveland , so out of the other three, I’d say that Chris Carter is a close second at 85 percent. For those reasons, I see those two as the leading candidates for consideration in my final call.
Time to step off of that ledge and take a swan dive into the abyss known as fantasy predictions and make my final call, and it is none other than the Oakland A’s farmhand, Chris Carter. Editors note: Yeah Baby! Stockton Ports represent! (I think Scott just likes the cool assortment of Stockton Ports Bobbleheads that were offered the past few years!)
Chicks, kids, grown men…heck, even most major leaguers dig the long ball and when it comes to the first base slot of a major league roster, and more importantly a fantasy squad, power is the utmost at this distance thirsty position.
Free-swinging aside, Carter has a situation set up for him in Oakland that can allow for long-term success. Ah yes, the A’s could obviously use a presence, but more importantly, a face to serve as their franchise savior and while this may be a bit premature, I truly feel that of all of their solid prospects, Chris Carter may be the one counted on to revive a franchise in need of a kick in the pants.
He may look out of place at first; however, once he figures it out and puts in the kind of work required off of the field, the production on the field could be phenomenal.
So, sit back and enjoy as each and every one of these kids has the right to become worthy in the eyes and computers of fantasy managers coming in 2010, as for now, it’s Chris Carter that will lead the charge.
Fearless 2010 season foreshadow of: 320 AB, .273 AVG, 23 HR, 71 RBI, 6 SB