The Case for Clayton Kershaw

The meteoric rise of Clayton Kershaw certainly got off to a rocky, if not extremely frustrating start in 2009. The left-handed Texan slumbered through a 0-2 start in April with a uninspired 7.29 ERA. The Dodgers could have at that point decided to explore options for the kid, as at only 21 years of age and through slightly less than 30 starts, he hadn’t fully proven that he could handle the mental side of the game. He had yet to show the same swagger and confidence displayed at every level of the game to that point of his career.

LA decided to stick with Kershaw in their rotation, and he turned in what can be acknowledged as a pretty good season.

While that 8-8 record reflects satisfactory performance, a little digging shows that “Kersh” really shone at times and simply dominated at others! document.write(’Joe Torre‘); seemed to handle Kershaw delicately, never letting him exceed seven innings on only one occasion, and keeping a keen eye on his pitch count. While this may have contributed to his lowly win-loss totals, it seemingly kept him fresh all year as he made 30 starts and tossed for 171 innings total.

Kershaw was phenomenal in months that start with ‘J’, by going 5-2 in 11 starts, with a 1.39 ERA and mowing down 62 batsmen at a nearly 1/IP clip.

While I realize in this battle, both are stuck in what seems to be a light-hitting division, this former first round pick has the benefit of tossing against two of the lightest hitting rosters in the bigs (Padres and Giants). While that doesn’t always end up being the case, it is at least worth mentioning that more than ½ of the Dodgers season games are to be played in the friendly confines of Dodger Stadium, Petco and AT&T, along with the plus of playing 20+ times versus those squads definitely bodes well for his confidence and continued growth.
Needless to say, we can expect C.K. to fine tune his 2009 stat line, and improve on the .500 win-loss record and strongly place his name alongside some of fantasy’s best SP offerings.

The Case for Matt Cain

Largely forgotten after a ho-hum 2008 season, that saw his confidence get rattled, Matt CainMatt Cain stormed back with vengeance and utter destruction for opposing hitters. Led by career low ‘s in walks, ERA and WHIP, Cain’s resurgence also contributed to new found career highs in complete games, innings pitched and most importantly, wins.

Now, Cain didn’t bomb his 2008 Giants season, it just seemed as if he had a “one step forward, two steps back” type campaign. He shelled that stigma early by going six innings or deeper in all but three of his starts. (one of those, he left the start with an injury and missed his next start, so it really could be only two!)

Needless to say, Cain is a huge part of the intimidating rotation set forth by the city by the Bay, as they will surely cause headaches and heartache for the competition. Cain would have had an even more impressive line had he not had an erratic September, as he seemed to wear down as the season did.

One way or the other, he pitches extremely well at home, and doesn’t have any glaring tendencies on the road, so he is not just a measure of a pitchers’ park. Cain re-established himself as a worthy fantasy number two option and should he continue to develop with the same dedication shown to his craft, the only knock can be his need to put together a start to finish that doesn’t taper off after the all-star break.

Cain has the fortune of being a teammate of two-time Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum, which takes the pressure and expectations off a bit. He isn’t going to be expected to be a slump-breaker, which bodes well for the 25-year old native of Dothan, Alabama .

The Giants are a work in progress no doubt, but with sure-fired young arms like Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, Jonathan Sanchez and Madison Bumgarner in the mix, they’ll give you little to no break from some nasty stuff.

Fantalytics Final Call

So, what are we looking at here? A fine young left-hander that is entering that magical third season. One that many fantasy slappies (including myself…) believe is the put-up or shut-up season, directing the future of their statistical performance. A 25-year old hard throwing righty who is finally putting it ALL together for an light hitting roster with oodles of potential.

Truth be told, either of these arms would make me tingle with delight should I be perusing my post draft day results; however, I am speaking with the guy that has both of them staring right back in his face, saying…”Who do I take here? I need another strong SP, do I take Clayton, or Cainer?” To that guy, I say…Go with the Dodgers Kershaw.

The fact of the matter is, the dominance that C.K. showed in the mid-months in the bright lights of L.A. is simply a glimpse into the type of goods this kid brings to the table. Plus, a lefty in a light hitting division, full of pitcher friendly parks is only screaming out to me even louder that he is the ultimate choice.

While Matt Cain is no slouch, I simply don’t like how he hasn’t been able to go wire to wire with good numbers and always seems to have an anomaly or two in his season. That is the type of stuff that fantasy gurus try to avoid at all costs.

It’s very difficult to predict the hot streak - and to always pounce on a player at just the right moment, so I’ll always take the guy that is steady year round. While it’s too early to guarantee that this version of the famous Kershaw Knives will be able to cut loose from the pack of rising MLB pitching stars.

The fact that this particular Kershaw knifed himself through adversity - and a rough start to the 2009 MLB season, speaks volumes for both this kids character, and make-up.

Clayton Kershaw’s Fearless Forsyth Foreshadow :
(32 Starts) 186 IP, 15W, 208K, 89BB, 2.86

by Adam Forsyth

Let me first take the opportunity in welcoming back faithful FANTALYTICS readers to another exciting season of the palm sweating, mind numbing, panic attack inducing decisions that we all love (and sometimes end up hating…) to make in fantasy baseball.

I would also like to welcome aboard any FANTALYTICS “virgins” that may be skimming the pages for the first time. With most teams’ spring training just around the corner; as pitchers and catchers start reporting as early as Feb. 17, it’s time to dig in for another 162 game schedule of rollercoaster fun!

Just a recap for those newbies, as well as those dedicated “FANTIES” that require a refresh of just what we’re trying to do within the pages of this periodical, FANTALYTICS is a WaiverSharks.com exclusive that brings you deep into the world of tough choices and hard line comparisons. We’ll provide reasoning, numbers; and of course opinions, supporting or opposing the skill-set of the options that you won’t find anywhere else!

We promise not to waste our time or yours for that matter, in comparing a pair of perennial MVP candidates. To be quite honest, too many sites spend their time doing that and we enjoy the fact that we choose to set the trends and not follow them.

It’s time to dust off those baseball hats (even you six fans in D.C.!!!) because the boys of summer are heading back to the field!

By Adam Forsyth

Allright, MEAT…Give him your heat!

There’s TWELVE DAYS OF CHRISTMAS, TWELVE APOSTLES, THE DIRTY DOZEN, HECK there’s even TWELVE MONKEYS.

We just couldn’t leave off at #11, so here’s three MLB young guns who can really crank the numbers up on the radar:

FANTALYTICS – VOLUME 12 / THE FINAL 2009 FANTALYTIC

We understand that the fantasy focus has changed gears to the world of the NFL, as well as (to a much smaller scale) the NHL. It’s unfortunate to admit, but with football in full swing, and the NHL opening up training camps and pre-season play, along with the fact that most playoffs for baseball leagues have entered their final innings, we have to close the curtains on another great season of fantasy baseball. However, with 11 editions of FANTALYTICS in the books, the superstitious side of me took over and I just had to complete the circuit by adding a twelfth and final edition to what has been a sterling season of fun, passion and prediction.

document.write(’ Enter a very interesting, and in our eyes at least – a much hotter topic than “Bradgelina!” We anticipate plenty of intrigue when pitchers and catchers report next February, for Spring Training 2010 - which should be a most interesting season for first year arms. With several options at enormous impacts being the reality, we take into view three premiere prospects that will soon take the fantasy world by storm. Two right handed power-pitching studs, and a lefty that is about to turn the Giants into an extremely tough team to play against.

On a side note, I hope that you have enjoyed reading FANTALYTICS as much as I have in writing them, and hope that I have provided you with some insight, entertainment and an opinion that may have contributed in making your fantasy season a joy. I truly love them bringing to you and look forward to another exciting seasons’ worth in 2010.

With that being said, it’s time to buckle up folks as the final FANTALYTICS of 2009 is upon us!!!

The Case for Neftali Feliz

As previously written in a Shallow and the Deep, the sky is the limit for this dynamic flame-thrower who has done nothing but impress in the final third of the 2009 season as part of the Rangers bullpen. While the Rangers playoff hopes appear to be dangling by a thread, none of the blame can be attributed to the performance of this young, slender Dominican native as he has been outstanding in all but one appearance.

What’s even more impressive of this 21-year old has been his ability to maintain composure. While he hasn’t been placed in too many situations that would be considered as high-pressure, he has shot down the opposition with the style and dominance of a long-time veteran of the game. This audition has surely placed a message to Rangers ownership and management that come 2010, the name (and arm of for that matter) Neftali Feliz belongs in their rotation. A transition to the rotation isn’t always as seamless as many would think or hope; however, Feliz has a naturally gifted arm that makes his pitches look effortless.

His statistics are outlandish, keeping pace with the efforts expressed in our first article on him, by striking out 35, while giving up only five walks for a 7:1 ratio. Oh, and did I mention that hitters are swinging a .121 AVG. against him, totaling a WHIP of an obscene 0.60! Look, I understand that these stats are a representation of 26.2 IP; however, we can’t ignore how intriguing this kid has been. We should all be so blessed to have a kid at this age come through for our home teams, and pray that for some reason, it’s due to the fact that teams haven’t been able to do enough homework on him.

To this point, in a strange twist resisting to follow the norm, only Oakland has been able to touch him up a bit with his ERA swelling when he faces the usually light hitting A’s.

Ah yes, 2010 will be a big season for this hard-thrower, as if you haven’t heard of him yet, you certainly will.

The Case for Madison Bumgarner

With a name like Madison Bumgarner, it’s kind of hard not to um…garner attention. Fortunately for this this left-handed talent, the attention thrust his way has been nothing but love. Now, in 2010 it’s time for some fantasy love as he will more than likely play into the starting rotation of what is turning into a very impressive starting five.

Recently called-up following the celebration of his 20th birthday, after a near full season of downright supremacy at the High-A and AA level, this North Carolinian got his first career start against a shallow Padres line-up on September 8th. While he didn’t dominate per se, he did pitch fairly well going 5.1 innings in a no-decision, while giving up five hits, striking out four and giving up only two runs. (both solo bombs off the bats of Chase Headley and Kevin Kouzmanoff)

Bumgarner throws a lot of strikes and uses a nice blend of speeds to keep hitters on their toes. He’s not afraid to come inside and displays a huge amount of confidence in his stuff as he can throw his fastball, change-up and breaking ball with effectiveness and consistency. Surely at only 20 years of age, he will continue to develop and if he is managed properly, he could become part of the best rotations baseball has ever seen. With Tim Lincecum already hitting the scene, the oft “forgotten in the mix” Matt Cain, (and his 13 wins, and 2.71 ERA) Jonathan Sanchez, with his “I’m incredible since throwing my no-hitter” attitude, as well as a seemingly re-born Barry Zito (and his impressive 3.94 ERA with 10 wins), the Giants are a truly interesting team for the upcoming season.

The Giants may however decide to hold off another season and let “The Bummer” develop and continue his authority against the lesser beings that the minor leagues offer, and rather prep him for a full-time role (pending injury to any of their top-tier performers) in 2011. That is the only concern that I have in stamping my approval for him being “The man” in this list, as his ETA may be pushed, only hindered by a lesser necessity, and not obviously based on talent.

The Case for Stephen Strasburg

After finally signing “The Next Great Pitching Talent” to his first major league contract, many thought that they’d be seeing him throw on the threads of the Nationals prior to the closing of the 2009 season. Smartly, the Nats’ (not that those words have ever really belonged in the same sentence…OUCH!) chose to hold off on this “once in a lifetime” phenom until the opening of next season, and instead will display his goods in the Arizona Fall League once the MLB season closes.

The unfortunate truth is that should he fail even slightly, or not turn into the dominant top-tier ace of the rotation that he has been projected to be, it may be considered a failure. The pressure is certainly on him at this point and that is a tough pill to swallow for many. I see this kid from San Diego, as having the typical California persona though and that speaks well for his transition. He will be able to handle this and the fact that he will be doing it for the cellar dwelling Nationals can only help the evolution. Imagine if this were taking place in the Bronx, putting on the pinstripes how overwhelming the pressure would be?

While the attendance figures in D.C. will more than likely double (or even triple…) when Stras toes the hill, the expectation will be an exciting boost to a franchise that is in desperate need of enhancement. The ability to be a franchise savior will challenge him to be at his best and the desire to become a winner will hopefully overshadow the fact that he will never ever have to worry about another payday in his life. Throwing 102 MPH isn’t a gift that many can brag about. In fact, you can count on one hand the amount of professional arms that can do it with consistency; however, throw in the fact that he has a deceiving curveball, defying slider and slow-moving change, his ability to mix speeds and inability to miss the plate as his accuracy is extremely impressive. He basically controls the game with his stuff and that is something that can’t be said about too many young prospects prior to understanding how to pitch. We should all be excited and not give into the hype and cast him off. Give him a shot and simply watch and enjoy.

FANTALYTICS FINAL CALL

Unfortunately, one of these studs cream rises to the top higher than the others and while I usually hate to go along with what the rest of the world suggests, always attempting to be bold, confident and cocky in my own prophecies. This season, I have gone against the trend with success, some failure, and some near embarrassment, but I wouldn’t change a thing with how I have foreshadowed the season.

However; on this occasion, I must be a lemming and select none other than Mr. Stephen J. Strasburg as my dynamic, most impactful “young gun” heading into the 2010 season. Yes, it is about as shocking as me boldly prognosticating that Brandon Inge will never, EVER hit over .250 again in his career. Or, suggesting that Chipper Jones will never, EVER get 500 AB’s ever again! Or that while Todd Helton did in fact put together a decent season, his relevance in the world of fantasy can only be considered mildly interesting.

I know, I know, I feel like a schmutz, unfortunately, even if this guy turns out half as good as he was en route to being the most sought after first overall pick in the history of baseball, it will still be quite a career to write about. Yes, many “sure-fire”, “can’t miss” arms have come our way (see Mark Prior) and most have failed. I’m fully confident that this hard-throwing dynamo will continue to seek and achieve success at the highest level of competition. Even playing for the smelly Nats’ in the nations’ capital, Stras will outpitch, outwit and outlast the other two names in a battle of “Survivor” proportions.

N.L. Rookie of the Year candidate? Definitely. Future N.L. Cy Young winner? My magic 8-ball is strongly suggesting that this is likely. Of course I’m having fun, but to be realistic, the kid from San Diego State University is in fact about as real deal as you can get. Kudos to the other lads in their attempt to dethrone the Rookie stud arm of 2010, but coming up short in this competition may be a bit more drastic than in years past.

Fearless Forsyth 2010 Season Foreshadow : (25 Starts) 156 IP, 11W, 182K, 49BB, 3.07ERA, 1.11WHIP

Editors Note: This brings to close another fun filled season of fantasy baseball advice and predictions.

Once again Cubbies fans need to take solace in the fact that even though you’re once again not #1 this year…

There’s always next year! …The End.

FANTALYTICS – VOLUME 11

AN EARLY PEAK INTO HOT FIRST BASE PROSPECTS FOR 2010

Skip To: Justin Smoak vs. Chris Carter vs. Yonder Alonso vs. Matt LaPorta

document.write(’As the season dies down and the fantasy playoff push is in full swing, most leagues trade deadlines have come and gone. The waiver wire is either shut down for the year or as thin as Alexei Ramirez after losing five pounds of water weight during a day/night doubleheader. We here at Waiversharks.com can only think of what the next season will bring and if I can be so frank as to say, we can’t wait for 2010 to come.

It isn’t due to anything other than pure geeked out excitement over the potential that the 2010 rookie crop has to offer and that we love to provide our readers with the early insight to get your mouth dripping with excitement, just like ours…

Dripping with anticipation as if you were sitting in front of a luscious Steak ‘n Shake Pepper Melt sandwich (sorry for the reference; however, I experienced this for the first time last week on a road trip through Ohio and can only pray that Canada can get their act together to bring this quality and cost-friendly burger joint north of the border…I digress) ready to pounce.

It’s hard to accept the end of another great fantasy season; so we don’t want to go down easy. Four heavy hitting first base prospects are under review in this edition of FANTALYTICS in which we will hopefully not let you down.

In honor of the recent cancer diagnosis of long-time Detroit Tiger radio play-by-play Hall of Famer Ernie Harwell, we are going with four guys that can easily earn the call, “That ball is loooooong gone”.

So dig in, get your pencils sharp, and by the way…wipe of the drool left on the table. It’s FANTALYTICS TIME!

The Case for Justin Smoak

After the abysmal start and first-half regression experienced by last years’ manic masher Chris Davis, Justin Smoak had the world at his fingertips and was looking to fit into the Rangers plans for their 2010 opening day roster at first base, if not even a spot when the rosters open up September 1st. Smoak was certainly taking care of business in the Texas League with AA-Frisco, belting away at a .328 clip, popping six HR’s, knocking in 29 runs and with more walks than strikeouts (39 to 35) he was proving on his own that a promotion was certainly in order.

However, en route to the next level, the 6-foot, 4-inch switch-hitting Smoak took a step back in his progression and while it may seem disappointing to see a slump in his performance, it could end up being a blessing in disguise. You see, since Davis was re-called, he has performed better and seemed more comfortable at the plate. Not destroying the ball, (hitting a decent, but unspectacular .267) much more importantly he has reduced his whiffs by nearly a full AB (2.26 AB/K prior to demotion to 3.21 AB/K) in the process.

It has enabled the pressure to be taken off of this 22-year old South Carolina native, as the shift to AAA-Oklahoma City hasn’t been without its’ challenges. The “Smoaker” may have been intimidated, anxious or just plain not ready as the noise became louder and louder that he was bumped up in the ranks. In his nearly 200 AB’s in AAA, his average has deflated down to .244 and he is also showing limited power, with only 4 HR’s and 11 doubles. On the brighter side of things, poolies should revel in the fact that his comfort level at the plate hasn’t been interrupted as he has been able to maintain a solid OBP of .363.

A keen eye for a big switch-hitting bat such as this kid doesn’t pop up every year, so the excitement level of the heights (and distances for that matter) that his bat can bring still outweigh the positive over the negative. While his progression may have been slightly delayed, the Rangers will surely find a spot in their line-up at some point in 2010 for this masher with great plate presence.

The Case for Chris Carter

Don’t let his current struggle to adjust to AAA pitching fool you. The clout previously on display by this future big league base rounder is indeed for real.

Laughing his way through the minor leagues with power numbers that make fantasy owners wake up in the middle of the night screaming his name, this one-time Chicago White Sox prospect (that has been involved in two big major league deals: first, straight up for Carlos Quentin to Arizona, only to be shipped as part of the Dan Haren deal two short weeks later) has multi-position ability on defense, which should only speed up his path to the desperate for power A’s line-up, hopefully for the 2010 season.

The potential for a roster spot must be imminent, as expressed in the “Ode to the A’s” Deep, Deeper and Dynasty article posted a short time ago, the A’s are hard pressed when it comes to offensive production. While I am certain that there is no need to rush him and the thunderbolt he calls a bat, has been in the minor leagues for five years of seasoning and knowing this, the intimidation he brings to the dish would only benefit the other sticks around him.

Sure, my man-love for this 22-year old product of Redwood City, California (how appropriate) may be a little bit on the early side, as he hasn’t had more than 50 AB’s at the AAA level; however, his 39 bombs in 2008 speak volumes for me in achieving credibility, as do his totals throughout his career.

This year, the ball hasn’t been flying off with the same regularity; (only 27 HR’s at post-time) on the other hand, the 42 doubles and two triples certainly make up for any loss of over the wall delights. Oh, and did we mention that, for a slightly big guy (not huge, but just right at 6-4, 220 pounds) he has got decent wheels as well? 13 swipes can certainly translate into the potential for double digit steals at the major league level.

Yes, he’ll probably whiff more than anyone on this list. But, he also takes more free passes than anyone on the list as well, which almost forces you to call the categories a push. Breathe easy, owners feeling the case of another Jack Cust coming on, as his career minor league BA is a respectable .289 through over 2000 AB’s.

It will be hard to provide reasons as why he won’t get a legitimate shot to impress at the next level come 2010, and considering the reduced performances coming out of O-Town the last three seasons, a surge of power could be what the doctor ordered.

The Case for Yonder Alonso

Similar to the potential of the previous 2008 first-round selection (Smoak was selected 11th overall, while the Reds snatched up Yonder four picks earlier at 7) this former Miami Hurricane’s ceiling of potential is sky high.

At only 22-years of age, Alonso has drifted his way up to AA-Carolina after brief stops in rookie ball and A-Ball allowed him to tear up the competition. Proving that he is leaps and bounds above the level, which only continued the trend experienced in his three years racking up stats in his illustrious college career, Alonso appears to be on a slick crash course to competing for a 2010 opening day roster spot.

Yes, Joey Votto is securely holding onto the first base spot; however, don’t you think that the Reds would and should be tempted by adding an additional left-handed power bat to their line-up? The resurgence of Jonny Gomes, and the acquisition of Wladimir Balentien certainly fogs up their plans of what they can do in the outfield slightly; however, moving forward smart owners realize that the Reds can only sit back and watch his production for so long before giving him a rightful shot.

Hitting .297 this season and showing glimpses of power, the launching pad known as the Great American Ballpark and their fans in the right field seats may soon be awed with his raw power. A clean, sharp stroke at the dish and a very selective eye (Alonso ranks on several prospect lists as having one of the best eyes in the minors) contributes to his success and while he doesn’t walk a lot (only 38 BB’s this season) he doesn’t strike out much either (44 K’s) and makes good, solid contact seemingly every at-bat, which allows him to be a successful run producer and all-around team player.

His limiting speed will take away some extra base potential, but it’s hard to ignore a player that can contribute with round trippers, batting average and OBP with the consistency and level of this Florida native.

The Case for Matt LaPorta

More than likely considered for a corner outfield spot than at first, in an all of the sudden young and inexperienced Indians line-up, this important piece of the C.C. Sabathia deal with the Brewers has been playing with confidence since being called up again in late August and given every day at-bats.

This was after struggling at the plate in his first major league exposure early on in the season.

Perhaps it was the confidence builder experienced in AAA-Columbus that was the required medicine to rid him of the funk. One way or the other, LaPorta may not spend another second on the buses of the minor leagues with the way he has played after the Indians cleaned house. While the opportunity opened up partly due to the youth movement being experienced in Cleveland , the main reason is symbolic to the dedication in this 24-year old blue chipper to stick to his guns and use his tremendous work ethic to make himself and his swing that much better.

So, 17 HR’s, 23 doubles and two triples later (in 338 AAA at-bats) LaPorta has looked comfortable in his return to the big club by hitting .286 and looking more comfortable when digging in.

Unfortunately; in his time with the Tribe, LaPorta doesn’t tend to walk with much regularity (five BB’s in 110 plate appearances) which affects his OBP, and may ultimately affect his positioning in the line-up where he has been a staple in slots six through eight with frequency. No doubt, Matt LaPorta still needs to further his plate discipline.

(Maybe he needs to be more like his Aeros Bobblehead which is shown “chillin” with a bottle of water!)

Although he has a power bat that may be more suitable for a prime three-spot, or even hitting clean-up, he must improve his ability to ring fear in pitchers and create more free passes. It will be critical in his development moving forward and in contributing to more inflated fantasy numbers.

FANTALYTICS FINAL CALL

It’s hard to put a group like this together and say that one above the other will shine brighter when no one really knows who if any will be everyday players in 2010. I shall open up the window from the 31st floor of a skyscraper and step out onto the ledge and declare that each of these four will at some point make a contribution to the big club next season, if not by making the opening day rosters.

All four situations are favorable to the players and their level of success to this point indicates that room must be made to see what they’ve got.

Also note that of the four teams that have their rights, only Texas has more than 63 wins and could be considered as a potential playoff team, meaning that an injection of youth may be imminent regardless of the current dynamics of their roster.

With that being said, we are 99.9 percent positive that Matt LaPorta will be there to shine everyday in Cleveland , so out of the other three, I’d say that Chris Carter is a close second at 85 percent. For those reasons, I see those two as the leading candidates for consideration in my final call.

Time to step off of that ledge and take a swan dive into the abyss known as fantasy predictions and make my final call, and it is none other than the Oakland A’s farmhand, Chris Carter. Editors note: Yeah Baby! Stockton Ports represent! (I think Scott just likes the cool assortment of Stockton Ports Bobbleheads that were offered the past few years!)

Chicks, kids, grown men…heck, even most major leaguers dig the long ball and when it comes to the first base slot of a major league roster, and more importantly a fantasy squad, power is the utmost at this distance thirsty position.

Free-swinging aside, Carter has a situation set up for him in Oakland that can allow for long-term success. Ah yes, the A’s could obviously use a presence, but more importantly, a face to serve as their franchise savior and while this may be a bit premature, I truly feel that of all of their solid prospects, Chris Carter may be the one counted on to revive a franchise in need of a kick in the pants.

He may look out of place at first; however, once he figures it out and puts in the kind of work required off of the field, the production on the field could be phenomenal.

So, sit back and enjoy as each and every one of these kids has the right to become worthy in the eyes and computers of fantasy managers coming in 2010, as for now, it’s Chris Carter that will lead the charge.

Fearless 2010 season foreshadow of: 320 AB, .273 AVG, 23 HR, 71 RBI, 6 SB

FANTALYTICS – VOLUME 10

Wandy Rodriguez (30) vs. Scott Richmond (29) vs. Randy Wells (26)
vs. J.A. Happ (26) vs. Jeff Niemann (26)

The other day I was going over the statistics of this season, in attempts to determine what I can do to make a push for the Fantasy League playoffs, when something sort of jumped out at me. With the real season at slowly climbing over the 100 games played mark, I recognized that there are an unusually high number of pitchers over the age of 26 that are experiencing their first taste of success.

Now, many may argue a name or two out of the five that I have selected for this edition of FANTALYTICS; however, truth be told, I easily could have added several other names.

This season has been an interesting one with many premiere SP disappointments (ah-hem…Cole Hamels, Francisco Liriano, Rich Harden, Carlos Zambrano, Scott Baker to name a few) and unfortunately for wide-eyed pre-season daydreamers, the list could go on and on. That isn’t even taking into consideration the always annoying injuries that derail any hopes of a successful campaign that tend to affect many managers long term plans. (see Brandon Webb, Jake Peavy, John Lackey, Scott Kazmir, Dice-K for quick reference)

Thankfully, surprise success stories can assist savvy fantasy managers, willing to take chances; so, in honor of that I have decided to throw the names of these roster saving heroes into a hat for this, the 10th edition of FANTALYTICS.

For some that are experiencing DL angst and are sitting on the fantasy playoff fence, hopefully this edition will open up another window of opportunity as it is tough to pry a Roy Halladay, or Tim Lincecum type at this stage of the season. Our hopes are to give you the gusto to potentially add one of the names on this list which may provide your squad with the boost that is necessary to surpass the competition, giving your team that well earned shot at post-season glory.

The Case for Wandy Rodriguez

At 30 years of age, Wandy is the “senior” of this group and arguably a name that may not belong in contention of a late bloomer as he has experienced limited success in previous seasons. However, I beg to differ.

Despite the occasional Astros throwback uniform night, Rodriguez has still managed his greatest success as a starter this year with a 10-6 record, a sub 3.00 ERA (2.63 at post time) and is holding opponents to a .242 batting average against. Another impressive stat is his WHIP, which has dropped to 1.21 (career 1.41 prior to 2009) as he has limited some of the big innings that he used to give up.

Unfortunately playing for a team that has been battling the .500 mark the entire season, Rodriguez is playing with purpose as he has been effective, chalking up 16 quality starts out of his 22 starts thus far.

While his ERA is still nearly a full run lower when pitching in his home park, (2.12 vs. 3.20) gone is the stigma of being a liability on the road. (we shouldn’t bring up the 2007 season, but I wouldn’t be able to sleep tonight if I didn’t…2.94 home ERA, to go with his 6.37 ERA on the road) He has improved his K/BB ratio and currently is sitting around the 3:1 mark, making him even more valuable to fantasy owners.

Exposing a flaw in Wandy’s game would have to be his continued knack for giving up the long ball. While not at an extremely alarming rate, the righty started the season out extremely effective in giving up only one big knock through May; however, since then has given up 14 in his last 11 starts. It will be critical to keep that number under wraps in order for him to finish strong for what has been a very strong fantasy season.

The Case for Scott Richmond

Who the heck is Scott Richmond some of you may say? With limited coverage to some on lower level fantasy standouts north of the border, this 29-year old Canadian righty had only 5 professional starts to his credit prior to the 2009 season.

With DL visits becoming “the cool thing to do” in T.O., Richmond issued a “look at me” to owners worldwide when he was granted the opportunity and he has shown more than anything that he can handle the challenge. With a very impressive 1.20 WHIP, (as a starter) Richmond has been steady when his turn in the rotation comes up, even if his 6-5 record doesn’t shout success. His 3.69 ERA (once again, as a starter) should at least pique your interest.

The Vancouver native has gone six innings deep in all but five of his 14 starts, and has yet to give up more than seven hits in an outing. While eliminating his three appearances in spot relief lowers his statistical line, it proves that he is a much more effective starter that requires the chance to find his groove.

Now, we all know that Scott Richmond isn’t a household name, and that his two starts against AL East opponents resulted in losses; however, if used as a number five, or even as a streaming spotter, Richmond’s value continues to rise like fresh baked bread.

Moving forward, even the most optimistic must recognize that as the season winds down, inner-division series frequency typically increases. This simply means that Richmond down the stretch will likely seem more tough match-ups against the Red Sox, Yankees and Rays which could hurt his fantasy value as the season comes to a close.

The Case for Randy Wells

Lou Pineilla has voiced his opinion in praising the 26-year old “Windy City Savior” suggesting that he fears where the Cubbies would be without the contributions of the burly righty. Sitting at 8-4 with an ERA under 3.00 (currently 2.73) Wells has been a pleasant surprise on a team that has been hot and cold all season long. Experiencing power droughts and scoring issues off and on since opening day, the Cubs pitching staff has had to deal with their own rollercoaster ride.

With each member of the Cubbies rotation having dealt with nagging injuries, including multiple DL-stints, it’s been a real blessing to have Randy Wells ready to take the ball every time he has been called upon. Steady and consistent, the Illinois native has 13 quality starts to his credit, out of his 16 starts.

It appears that Wells’ tireless work to garner control of his pitches has finally broken through, as he is holding opponents to a .249 BAA, while flashing an extremely impressive 1.14 WHIP through 100+ innings.

The knock on Wells prior to this season was his flair for giving up the long ball; however, in giving up a respectable nine round trippers this season, there doesn’t seem to be the same level of concern.

On the flip side, a glaring concern has to be his inability to get hitters out with RISP. Currently his 7.71 ERA with RISP must draw attention, while furthermore a 14.46 ERA with RISP w/2 outs indicates that he hasn’t been able to close the deal in ending an inning, or limiting the damage. Imagine if he were able to have or use an out pitch to his benefit just how more impressive his line would be. Give him time, he may just get there.

The Case for J.A. Happ

It is unfortunate that we are catching Happ shortly after experiencing the first two losses of his season; fortunately, he put to rest murmurs of a negative streak with his second CG gem against the Colorado Rockies. The Illinois native gave up only four hits, while punching out 10 Rockies hitters en route to his eighth win of the season. This Phillies stud lefty has seamlessly stepped into a rotation in need and is garnering strong consideration for an NL R.O.Y. nomination.

After the injury to Brett Myers brought panic to the City of Brotherly love, J.A. shifted from the bullpen where he was mostly effective, to a rotation spot and hasn’t looked back since. Even after the deadline acquisitions of an aging Pedro Martinez and reigning AL Cy Young winner (and fellow lefty) Cliff Lee, a strong case for Happ to remain in the rotation throughout their push to the playoffs has been made. In fact manager Charlie Manuel and GM Ruben Amaro gave the Phils’ #43 a vote of confidence in assuring that his spot in the rotation is secure.

It could be due to the fact that he has tossed 12 quality starts in the 15 he has toed the mound thus far. One of the reasons for such success is that he is extremely tough on lefties while wringing up 6.73K/9IP this season allowing him to get himself out of any jams that he has positioned himself in.

Experiencing somewhat of a reverse “Wandy Rodriguez Syndrome”, (while not as dramatic) Happ has been much more effective in road starts. With a 3.77 home ERA, along with 1.36 WHIP versus an eye-popping 1.47 ERA and 0.88 WHIP as a starter; however, don’t buy into forcing an “only start him on the road” mentality, as the Northwestern product is just fine.

It may just be a representation of the opponents faced ( St. Louis , Baltimore , Boston at home, compared to Arizona , Florida , San Diego and Washington on the road). One way or the other, it is still imperative that Happ improves this statistical anomaly to be fully respected.

The Case for Jeff Niemann

At 6-foot, 9-inches, and darn near 300 pounds, Jeff Niemann is an intimidating force to be reckoned with when stepping on the mound. The former first rounder (4th overall in 2004) has come into his own in Tampa this season, when it was expected that another top-tier Rays starter would grab the world by storm in 2009.

Now, it’s not that David Price hasn’t been serviceable, truth be told, if anyone on the Rays gets recognition for AL R.O.Y. this season, it should be this big Texan.

Leading the Rays starters in both wins and ERA, Niemann has kept the Tampa Bay boat afloat with his cutting edge goods, and his ability to mix speeds and locations to effectively keep batters on their toes. With two complete game shutouts to his credit this season, Niemann has gone deep into games more often than naught, and has 13 quality starts to his name this season (through 19 starts).

Now, it’s not that we wouldn’t expect this from a high pick such as Niemann, it’s just that in this factory of pitching currently based in Tampa , at 26, and it may have been felt that he was a lost foot soldier, seeking only the opportunity to be the man. Fortunately for the Rays, 2009 has been that opportunity.

Hindering the gentle giant is his lackluster inner division performance. I know it’s the AL East, arguably the most difficult in baseball; however, it’s just that being in that tough division, if you struggle as a SP, you will certainly struggle to find long-term success. Simply stated, he’ll need to perform much better in his remaining starts within the division to fully justify the recognition that he has garnered throughout the first 100 or so games of 2009.

FANTALYTICS FINAL CALL

With all this being said a decision has to be made. Who is worthy of being the top banana in this bunch of late-blooming potassium filled fruity crop? With the statistics stacked up, compared and reviewed, is there anyone that is a clear and deserving champion of the Hardy Mums? (Re: late blooming wildflower…sorry for the reference)

While you have to respect what they each has brought to the table this season, helping their teams overcome rotation concerns and injuries, it has been a pleasant surprise in watching them grow and develop their own arsenal. It is always a manager’s hope when they make a pick-up of someone that may be flying under the radar to develop into one of these stories, seizing the opportunity and we can only hope that moving forward they continue the success that the steam in their choo-choo train has chugged up thus far.

Needless to say, for the remainder of this season, (along with a keen eye on the 2010 season), I truly feel as if J.A. Happ is the leader in this brigade of belated pitching talents. Philadelphia is the defending World Series champion and even without Brett Myers in the fold, have one of the strongest groups of starting pitchers in the National League.

It has only gotten stronger with their deadline acquisitions and moving through the push for the playoffs, expect Happ to continue to be in the thick of things.

With a comfortable lead in the NL East, the Phillies will be tough to catch and should be a force in a playoff series.

Happ has the kind of stuff that makes a SP tough to hit off of, as he uses a dynamic change of speeds and has an arm angle that promotes natural deception which makes him tough to hit.

While he may not have the ‘K’-fficiency of Rodriguez, the control of Wells, the intimidating presence of Niemann, or the intangibles of Richmond, what Happ is, is a nice, neat total package that will make him fantasy worthy for many seasons to come.

Fearless Forsyth Foreshadow : (10 Starts) 72.1 IP, 6W, 68K, 19BB, 2.79 ERA, 1.09 WHIP