FANTALYTICS – VOLUME 6

Welcome back for another round of FANTALYTICS.

This time we will be reviewing a pair of middle infielders with oodles of upside, in their own unique way. One is a big fish in a small pond, er…market, the other a lanky sock in a drawer full of power?  What the heck does that mean?

Anyways, both bring a different approach to the game, both to the plate and on the field for that matter and I am here to provide you with the positives and negatives to make the choice that fits your fantasy line-up best.

The Case for Dan Uggla

Hitting out of the five spot in a decent Marlins line-up may not seem lucrative to most, but Uggla has thrived and has definitely found a niche in the sunny state.  Uggla has become a reliable power option at a position with few power options to pick from.  He has shown that he can be depended on for around 100 runs, 30 dingers and 90 RBI’s consistently ranking in the top-three among major league second basemen since becoming an everyday player.

While his average is nothing to get excited about though he isn’t a .282 hitter like his rookie season, nor is he the .245 hitter in his follow up season. He is more like the one from last season, settling in at around the .260 mark. Please take note that due to his aggression at the plate (3.85AB/K) the knock in his average is in fact just part of the deal in owning him.

The Case for Alexei Ramirez

This White Sox sophomore has taken a hold of the SS position and while he struggled to get his first hit this season, (singled in his 15th AB) lately he has been showing signs that he is able to battle his way out of a slump (hitting .352 in his last 5 games). This awakening is great news for the White Sox, as a sophomore slump was the last thing that their anemic at times offense needed.

One note of concern is that it took 56 at-bats to hit his first long ball of 2009 after hitting 21 in last seasons’ breakout.  While he may not be expected to hit 20+ HR’s at the major league level every season, the drastic power outage can be considered worrisome to fantasy owners worldwide.  Even in his struggles to this point of the season, he hasn’t been striking out at an alarming rate which gives me the confidence that he will continue to work out of his slump and get back on track for better overall numbers.

FANTALYTICS FINAL CALL

While Ramirez has found a home at short this season, he still boasts multi-position eligibility from last seasons’ shuffle ‘round (2B, SS, 3B and CF), which makes him even more appealing. On the other hand many believe that owning a player like Uggla, who brings a dangerous K rate, forces the addition of a pure hitter to compensate for his low AVG., and can even scare away many of owners.

Don’t be too harsh because Ramirez probably won’t be a career plus .300 hitter either, and while both have above average power, Uggla will provide better physical numbers by leaps and bounds. Even with the boost in speed, Ramirez is still a second fiddle to the rare power contribution from a middle infield position.

With that being said, I personally am not sold on Alexei Ramirez yet, and while I may regret the decision…my personal vendetta against believing in Ramirez must be heard. Even though I find his position flexibility appealing, the power numbers of Uggla are just too tempting. Add to the fact that the White Sox depend on the long ball too much, and hitting 8th in a line-up full of power will affect his peripherals.

LUCKILY FOR UGGLA, DEFENSE ISN’T TAKEN INTO ACCOUNT…

On the other hand Uggla is a sneaky run producer (both scoring and driving them in), who has successfully scored an average of 105 runs on an always underestimated Marlins offence. Uggla is creeping his way up year after year in homers and could eventually be a 35+ HR per year type, which would put him in the elite of the games’ all-time second basemen.

FANTALYTICS – VOLUME 5

Joakim Soria vs Mariano Rivera

By Adam Forsyth

Welcome to the latest version of FANTALYTICS! Subscribe to Fantalytics RSS Feed

In this edition, we will look at two premier closers at opposite ends of their careers. One in the twilight of his career with his name firmly placed amongst the greatest of all-time, and one young buck looking to establish himself, and slowly etch his name in the premier granite of fantasy elite closers.

On the surface, both are present day top-tier options, and while one closes for a team that many consider World Series favorites, the other closes for a team that will probably continue to battle to avoid being basement dwellers. This has become a position that they have comfortably settled in for over a decade – which may make some think that this case is a classic “Open-Close” type battle. However, here at Waiversharks.com, we believe that there is always more underneath the surface of the ocean and if you look deep into the dark blue waters, you’ll open yourself up to a whole new fantasy world.

FANTALYTICS takes pride in making sure that every nook and cranny is investigated before putting our seal of approval and will take no case lightly. I welcome you all to remove your pre-conceived notions and enjoy the read before understanding this edition entitled: The Case of the Closer – Old vs. New.

The Case for Joakim Soria

At only 24-years of age, The “Mexicutioner” has risen above the expectations of the baseball world, which includes the two teams that previously owned his rights prior to settling in Kansas City. I’m sure that while the Dodgers are fine now with Jonathan Broxton closing out games and San Diego isn’t concerned with giving Heath Bell a shot at replacing Trevor Hoffman; however, both teams couldn’t foresee the impact and confidence that the dynamic Chicano exudes on the mound. It’s safe to say that after swiping him in the Rule 5 draft of 2006, Soria’s stock has taken a tremendous jump.

He is a hard-throwing right hander that can pitch on consecutive nights and making 62 and 63 appearances in his first two full seasons which shows he is durable enough to withstand the daily grind that the MLB season brings.Soria looked even more comfortable in his first full season as closer in 2008 by getting the final out in 57 of his 63 games that he appeared, while racking up 42 saves along the way. This mark ranked third in the majors behind the record-setting performance 62 saves of Francisco Rodriguez and Jose Valverde’s 44 in Houston .

What’s impressive of Soria save total is the fact that only one of his saves was that of the cheap variety. By that, I mean out of all of his saves only one was tabbed by pitching less that 1.0 inning. This isn’t a low-blow to the eight that K-Rod accumulated in such a fashion, but more symbolic of how lights out Soria was.

Typically, Soria will enter the game at the beginning of the ninth and refuses to give the opposition any hope, as his 1.60 ERA, 0.86 WHIP and .169 BAA line clearly indicates. Furthermore, Soria was effective from his opening series against the Tigers straight through to his end of the season, without ever having back-to-back complications and only blowing three of his 45 save opportunities. (Valverde and K-Rod each blew seven save opportunities)

Some fantasy managers may be cautious to include him with the likes of Papelbon, Rivera, K-Rod and Nathan in the upper-echelon of closers and while they have reason to be cautious with the volatility of the closer position, I argue the fact that confidence plays a big part, as well as opportunity.

The Royals may not have the best team in the game, and may not win more than 75-80 games year after year, but when they have a lead of three runs or less heading into the final third of the game, the value of a great closer is expressed in the reaction the opposition has in their desperate attempts to score to avoid facing the closer.

Kansas City may not be taken seriously; however, with a weapon like number 48 coming out of the ‘pen to close out a game, the batters tend to tighten their grip and accept their fate more often than naught. For this simple fact alone, I have to believe that the Royals are headed in the right direction on the shoulders of the young talent, and on the arm of their closer.

The Case for Mariano Rivera

Umm, he’s Mariano Rivera. Case closed.

Seriously though, Mo has shown tremendous durability throughout his 14-year career with the Yankees and 2008 was no different. In fact for the Rivera’s arm has been salvaged the last few seasons without being depended on to close out games by pitching multiple innings at an alarming rate. With his 39 saves ranking him seventh in the majors, minus a shaky July (a whopping…3.27 ERA) Rivera didn’t have an ERA worse than 1.88 in any other month of the season. His dominance didn’t end there though, as the numbers for hits allowed by month were as follows: 4, 7, 6, 11, 9 and closed out with a 4-hit September. With only one blown save opportunity, a 1.40 ERA, 0.67 WHIP and a 12.8K/BB ratio, it’s hard to say that he is whimpering his way through his golden years.

Typically, there is always concern with a hard-throwing 39-year olds health, simply succumbing to the aches, pains, strains and discomfort over a long 162 game schedule; however, Joe Girardi can fully trust that Rivera will be honest in his health and won’t press him to pitch on consecutive nights, or much more than one inning unless completely necessary. I expect Rivera to continue his dominance and keep the pace with his standard incredible stats.

A transition to the new digs across the street from “The House That Ruth Built” may require fans to bestow as “The House that Mo Built” with Rivera having the opportunity to change the recent melancholy results from the last eight seasons since their last World Series win of 2000, by leading the Yankees to playoff glory.

Don’t consider that statement as a prediction, but while it’s understood that Derek Jeter is in fact the captain of the Yankees, it’s hard to deny that as Mariano Rivera goes, so do the Yankees. The fan favorite will undoubtedly bring his ‘A’ game to the hill each and every time, and continue to close out games en route to chasing the career saves mark currently held by the active but dwindling Trevor Hoffman.

Entering the second season of his three-year/$45-million deal, Rivera is currently 72 back of the new Brewers closer. Should Rivera sit close once the 2010 season comes to a close, perhaps one last contract to reach the monument at 41-plus years old will be necessary. One way or the other, the magical career of “The Panama Express” is chugging along full-steam ahead into 2009 and showing no signs or need for any repairs.

FANTALYTICS FINAL CALL

Two hard-throwing closers from sunny destinations? A classic showdown of old versus new? Comparable 2008 statistics?Teams on opposite ends of the spectrum?

I’m sure many readers (Yankees fans included) are wondering how this can go any way other than to stick with the dependable one, safely sticking with the RP with a long and proven track record.So, here goes.With the way the 2008 season panned out for Joakim Soria, “The Kid” certainly showed glimmers of “The Professor” in his knack for closing out games.

And on the flip-side, “The Professor” showed glimmers of “The Kid” in his resiliency and ability to dominate, throwing hard all season long and confusing hitters with the consistency of all seasons past.

So, how does FANTALYTICS recommend one over the other? Who should you have taken in your draft when Jonathan Papelbon, Francisco Rodriguez and Joe Nathan are off the table? Do you go with “Mo” or with “Jo”?

Most projection lists and average draft ranking have faithfully slid the dependable Rivera in their top three or four spot of closers; however, I feel that the lower ranked (typically sixth or seventh in most rankings) Joakim Soria is actually the way to go. I have all the confidence in the world that we aren’t dealing with a one-hit…er, 1-year wonder. Joakim Soria is and will be the real deal for many years to come. Be it a single year, keeper, or dynasty league, Soria (and the Royals for that matter) will continue to improve, as well as rise through the ranks of the MLB.

Furthermore, you can expect the Royals to play in many tight games which further increased his effectiveness and create a more impactful quantity of save opportunities for the slender Mexican phenom.The statistics will be tight for sure; however, with father time waiting to catch up to the Panamanian closing legend, durability may become the Achilles heel of this conversation and ultimately affect the outcome of this decision.

Taking risks and winning the small battles are what winning at fantasy baseball usually comes down to. Taking a “risk” on Soria is like cashing a check written by Bill Gates…It’s going to clear.

FANTALYTICS – VOLUME 4

By Adam Forsyth

Ah yes, FANTALYTICS is back in session!

This time we are taking a look at a pair of outfield gems in different time-zones. Heck, different countries for that matter. One shags fly balls in right field for the Toronto Blue Jays; the other covers the grounds in centre field wearing Dodger Blue. Both are good defensively and have speed to burn.

Neither is noted for out of this world type power, but both can still knock the ball out of the park with consistency. Any fantasy manager would be proud, happy and settled should they be fortunate enough to land either one of these middle-of-the-lineup gems but we want to pass on the 411 on who will give you more for the upcoming season.

In this edition, we take a look at two dynamic outfielders on route to stellar careers. Sit back, relax and put your mind at ease, as we’ll break down this scenario and make sense of an extremely tough call.

Alex Rios vs. Matt Kemp, in today’s edition of FANTALYTICS, will not disappoint the most savvy of fantasy managers in providing the comfort for you, the owner, to make the necessary moves to climb atop the heap in your league.

The Case for Alex Rios

After increasing his home run and RBI totals from year to year (peaking at 24 and 85 respectively in 2007) Rios’ power numbers dipped a bit, even though he accumulated a similar number of at-bats as his career high season.

Rios did improve his status in a couple of other categories, with the most notable improvement being his jump in stolen bases and attempts. Rios had averaged 15 swipes per season, with a career high 17 coming in the same magical 2007 season, but ran his way to 32 steals (through 40 attempts) and an impressive 80% success rate.

His power totals disappointed many fantasy managers, as they were expecting the growth in his power to continue on a gradual incline. Minus the great display that he put on at the All-Star game in New York during the HR Derby, Rios seemed to eliminate all focus on power for the majority of the season.

The 28-year old kept a clean .291 batting average, which falls in line with his career .288 average. Even though he didn’t go yard with enough frequency, he still had plenty of extra base power, as 38% of his 185 hits went for more than a single bag, which is slightly higher than his career average of extra base hits of 35% prior to the 2008 season.

With Vernon Wells already showing signs of being in and out of the Jays line-up due to various injuries, it’s anyone’s guess who the tall Puerto Rican sensation will receive protection from in the free-swinging core of young batsmen that Cito Gaston will push out each night. With players like rookie Travis Snider, second-year outfielder Adam Lind whiffing at a steady rate, and the rest of the line-up being filled with lesser powered, or light-hitting dependable types, it could come down to Rios being expected to generate his own offense on a regular basis and be relied on more heavily to be the generator that pushes the Toronto offense.

Rios will continue to develop into a solid fantasy option. I expect his power numbers to jump up by at least 50 percent, and get into a more comfortable range of being noted as a 25-30 HR-100+ RBI-30+ steal player. The decent power and good speed combination is always difficult to find in the world of fantasy players, so to get those types is always the first instinct for a sharp manager.

The multi-category OF’s are much higher regarded than those that contribute in only one or two areas, so while Rios continues to establish himself as one of those dependable three and four category guys, he’ll keep moving up and up the ranks, and will likely ease his way into being considered the most valuable everyday Blue Jay.

The Case for Matt Kemp

In working his way up to the 2008 season, Matt Kemp has finally established himself as the everyday center fielder for the Los Angeles Dodgers. After a very successful minor league career that saw him post a .306-27-90-23 season in 2005, Kemp made the jump at the end of the following season, getting into 52 games, and saw even more action in 2007 that saw him get into 98 games.

The slow introduction has paid off immensely, as the Dodgers have now got a valuable player on their hands. Kemp has a nice blend of speed, decent pop, and baseball knowledge that makes him seem older than the age on his birth certificate suggests. At 24, Kemp brings true 25/35 type numbers to the table. With the recent re-signing of Manny Ramirez to the Dodgers fold, and surrounded by a smorgasbord of talent, this Dodger line-up will only add to the value of Kemp, allowing the Oklahoma native to grow even more by seeing better pitches in each and every at-bat.

Currently penciled in the lower end of the line-up, it wouldn’t be outlandish to see them capitalize on his speed a bit more and have him slide up the line-up to see more AB’s as he progresses.

Kemp was extremely consistent throughout the entire 162 games last season, and wasn’t a victim to the slump. Surprisingly his power numbers were ballooned at the usually pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium, as he hit 14 of his 18 bombs, which could just mean that he is a fan of home cooking! One way or the other, the Dodgers line-up can be considered one of baseball’s most well-rounded trios, and Matt Kemp is a big part of that. Kemp is a big part of the Dodgers plans moving forward. With a nucleus of young talent, surrounded by a selection of experienced talent, the rise of the Dodgers is on schedule.

FANTALYTICS FINAL CALL

Yet another tough call for FANTALYTICS as there isn’t much not to like in either of these two talented outfielders. For those in split outfield leagues, both have multi-position eligibility (CF and RF for either), and comparable lines across the board to this point. They both have tremendous upside, and are both still developing their entire skill set en route to being statistical leaders on their teams for many years to come.

So, who gets the edge and why?

I wrestled with this Final Call almost as much as Kemp VS Torrealba!

I have, after much unsettled sleep however, come to the conclusion that Matt Kemp is the winner in this close race of thoroughbreds.

Three years the elder, Rios is going to have a tough go this season, being depended on to be the catalyst and the primary power source. With Vernon Wells in and out of the line-up due to injuries, and surrounded by rookie and young talent, it may be too much to ask for. It simply may not equate to the monster season that the Jays will need to stay competitive.

On the other hand, Kemp is wedged in a line-up where protection is a given, and star-power is overflowing, with the top-to-bottom who’s who putting the Dodgers in the upper echelon of MLB offensive juggernauts. While Kemp and Rios are both significant five-tool contributors, the upside of the difference in age makes Kemp’s statistics even more impressive, as he has achieved the status and propelled himself to the top of the outfield food chain in the fantasy ranks.

I’d expect quality numbers from Rios this year, as he is sure to maintain pace in being a dependable 25/25 player.

With Kemp, I can say without concern that the sky is the limit. He has the raw power, and is blessed with wheels. Kemp could hit 30 long balls, while swiping 35+ bags with regularity, as soon as 2009. With the Jays being in a tough AL East, and facing rotations like the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays with regularity, the Dodgers schedule proves much more friendly and will only further push the divide on these two blue-chip studs.

I’ll lay it on the line and push the Dodger OF’s line to be along the lines of: 100-.305-28-105-37 and sleep well tonight.