FANTALYTICS – VOLUME 4

By Adam Forsyth

Ah yes, FANTALYTICS is back in session!

This time we are taking a look at a pair of outfield gems in different time-zones. Heck, different countries for that matter. One shags fly balls in right field for the Toronto Blue Jays; the other covers the grounds in centre field wearing Dodger Blue. Both are good defensively and have speed to burn.

Neither is noted for out of this world type power, but both can still knock the ball out of the park with consistency. Any fantasy manager would be proud, happy and settled should they be fortunate enough to land either one of these middle-of-the-lineup gems but we want to pass on the 411 on who will give you more for the upcoming season.

In this edition, we take a look at two dynamic outfielders on route to stellar careers. Sit back, relax and put your mind at ease, as we’ll break down this scenario and make sense of an extremely tough call.

Alex Rios vs. Matt Kemp, in today’s edition of FANTALYTICS, will not disappoint the most savvy of fantasy managers in providing the comfort for you, the owner, to make the necessary moves to climb atop the heap in your league.

The Case for Alex Rios

After increasing his home run and RBI totals from year to year (peaking at 24 and 85 respectively in 2007) Rios’ power numbers dipped a bit, even though he accumulated a similar number of at-bats as his career high season.

Rios did improve his status in a couple of other categories, with the most notable improvement being his jump in stolen bases and attempts. Rios had averaged 15 swipes per season, with a career high 17 coming in the same magical 2007 season, but ran his way to 32 steals (through 40 attempts) and an impressive 80% success rate.

His power totals disappointed many fantasy managers, as they were expecting the growth in his power to continue on a gradual incline. Minus the great display that he put on at the All-Star game in New York during the HR Derby, Rios seemed to eliminate all focus on power for the majority of the season.

The 28-year old kept a clean .291 batting average, which falls in line with his career .288 average. Even though he didn’t go yard with enough frequency, he still had plenty of extra base power, as 38% of his 185 hits went for more than a single bag, which is slightly higher than his career average of extra base hits of 35% prior to the 2008 season.

With Vernon Wells already showing signs of being in and out of the Jays line-up due to various injuries, it’s anyone’s guess who the tall Puerto Rican sensation will receive protection from in the free-swinging core of young batsmen that Cito Gaston will push out each night. With players like rookie Travis Snider, second-year outfielder Adam Lind whiffing at a steady rate, and the rest of the line-up being filled with lesser powered, or light-hitting dependable types, it could come down to Rios being expected to generate his own offense on a regular basis and be relied on more heavily to be the generator that pushes the Toronto offense.

Rios will continue to develop into a solid fantasy option. I expect his power numbers to jump up by at least 50 percent, and get into a more comfortable range of being noted as a 25-30 HR-100+ RBI-30+ steal player. The decent power and good speed combination is always difficult to find in the world of fantasy players, so to get those types is always the first instinct for a sharp manager.

The multi-category OF’s are much higher regarded than those that contribute in only one or two areas, so while Rios continues to establish himself as one of those dependable three and four category guys, he’ll keep moving up and up the ranks, and will likely ease his way into being considered the most valuable everyday Blue Jay.

The Case for Matt Kemp

In working his way up to the 2008 season, Matt Kemp has finally established himself as the everyday center fielder for the Los Angeles Dodgers. After a very successful minor league career that saw him post a .306-27-90-23 season in 2005, Kemp made the jump at the end of the following season, getting into 52 games, and saw even more action in 2007 that saw him get into 98 games.

The slow introduction has paid off immensely, as the Dodgers have now got a valuable player on their hands. Kemp has a nice blend of speed, decent pop, and baseball knowledge that makes him seem older than the age on his birth certificate suggests. At 24, Kemp brings true 25/35 type numbers to the table. With the recent re-signing of Manny Ramirez to the Dodgers fold, and surrounded by a smorgasbord of talent, this Dodger line-up will only add to the value of Kemp, allowing the Oklahoma native to grow even more by seeing better pitches in each and every at-bat.

Currently penciled in the lower end of the line-up, it wouldn’t be outlandish to see them capitalize on his speed a bit more and have him slide up the line-up to see more AB’s as he progresses.

Kemp was extremely consistent throughout the entire 162 games last season, and wasn’t a victim to the slump. Surprisingly his power numbers were ballooned at the usually pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium, as he hit 14 of his 18 bombs, which could just mean that he is a fan of home cooking! One way or the other, the Dodgers line-up can be considered one of baseball’s most well-rounded trios, and Matt Kemp is a big part of that. Kemp is a big part of the Dodgers plans moving forward. With a nucleus of young talent, surrounded by a selection of experienced talent, the rise of the Dodgers is on schedule.

FANTALYTICS FINAL CALL

Yet another tough call for FANTALYTICS as there isn’t much not to like in either of these two talented outfielders. For those in split outfield leagues, both have multi-position eligibility (CF and RF for either), and comparable lines across the board to this point. They both have tremendous upside, and are both still developing their entire skill set en route to being statistical leaders on their teams for many years to come.

So, who gets the edge and why?

I wrestled with this Final Call almost as much as Kemp VS Torrealba!

I have, after much unsettled sleep however, come to the conclusion that Matt Kemp is the winner in this close race of thoroughbreds.

Three years the elder, Rios is going to have a tough go this season, being depended on to be the catalyst and the primary power source. With Vernon Wells in and out of the line-up due to injuries, and surrounded by rookie and young talent, it may be too much to ask for. It simply may not equate to the monster season that the Jays will need to stay competitive.

On the other hand, Kemp is wedged in a line-up where protection is a given, and star-power is overflowing, with the top-to-bottom who’s who putting the Dodgers in the upper echelon of MLB offensive juggernauts. While Kemp and Rios are both significant five-tool contributors, the upside of the difference in age makes Kemp’s statistics even more impressive, as he has achieved the status and propelled himself to the top of the outfield food chain in the fantasy ranks.

I’d expect quality numbers from Rios this year, as he is sure to maintain pace in being a dependable 25/25 player.

With Kemp, I can say without concern that the sky is the limit. He has the raw power, and is blessed with wheels. Kemp could hit 30 long balls, while swiping 35+ bags with regularity, as soon as 2009. With the Jays being in a tough AL East, and facing rotations like the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays with regularity, the Dodgers schedule proves much more friendly and will only further push the divide on these two blue-chip studs.

I’ll lay it on the line and push the Dodger OF’s line to be along the lines of: 100-.305-28-105-37 and sleep well tonight.

This entry was posted on Saturday, April 11th, 2009 at 10:12 am and is filed under Outfield. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.