FANTALYTICS – VOLUME 5
Joakim Soria vs Mariano Rivera
By Adam Forsyth
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In this edition, we will look at two premier closers at opposite ends of their careers. One in the twilight of his career with his name firmly placed amongst the greatest of all-time, and one young buck looking to establish himself, and slowly etch his name in the premier granite of fantasy elite closers.
On the surface, both are present day top-tier options, and while one closes for a team that many consider World Series favorites, the other closes for a team that will probably continue to battle to avoid being basement dwellers. This has become a position that they have comfortably settled in for over a decade – which may make some think that this case is a classic “Open-Close” type battle. However, here at Waiversharks.com, we believe that there is always more underneath the surface of the ocean and if you look deep into the dark blue waters, you’ll open yourself up to a whole new fantasy world.
FANTALYTICS takes pride in making sure that every nook and cranny is investigated before putting our seal of approval and will take no case lightly. I welcome you all to remove your pre-conceived notions and enjoy the read before understanding this edition entitled: The Case of the Closer – Old vs. New.
The Case for Joakim Soria
At only 24-years of age, The “Mexicutioner” has risen above the expectations of the baseball world, which includes the two teams that previously owned his rights prior to settling in Kansas City. I’m sure that while the Dodgers are fine now with Jonathan Broxton closing out games and San Diego isn’t concerned with giving Heath Bell a shot at replacing Trevor Hoffman; however, both teams couldn’t foresee the impact and confidence that the dynamic Chicano exudes on the mound. It’s safe to say that after swiping him in the Rule 5 draft of 2006, Soria’s stock has taken a tremendous jump.
He is a hard-throwing right hander that can pitch on consecutive nights and making 62 and 63 appearances in his first two full seasons which shows he is durable enough to withstand the daily grind that the MLB season brings.Soria looked even more comfortable in his first full season as closer in 2008 by getting the final out in 57 of his 63 games that he appeared, while racking up 42 saves along the way. This mark ranked third in the majors behind the record-setting performance 62 saves of Francisco Rodriguez and Jose Valverde’s 44 in Houston .
What’s impressive of Soria save total is the fact that only one of his saves was that of the cheap variety. By that, I mean out of all of his saves only one was tabbed by pitching less that 1.0 inning. This isn’t a low-blow to the eight that K-Rod accumulated in such a fashion, but more symbolic of how lights out Soria was.
Typically, Soria will enter the game at the beginning of the ninth and refuses to give the opposition any hope, as his 1.60 ERA, 0.86 WHIP and .169 BAA line clearly indicates. Furthermore, Soria was effective from his opening series against the Tigers straight through to his end of the season, without ever having back-to-back complications and only blowing three of his 45 save opportunities. (Valverde and K-Rod each blew seven save opportunities)
Some fantasy managers may be cautious to include him with the likes of Papelbon, Rivera, K-Rod and Nathan in the upper-echelon of closers and while they have reason to be cautious with the volatility of the closer position, I argue the fact that confidence plays a big part, as well as opportunity.
The Royals may not have the best team in the game, and may not win more than 75-80 games year after year, but when they have a lead of three runs or less heading into the final third of the game, the value of a great closer is expressed in the reaction the opposition has in their desperate attempts to score to avoid facing the closer.
Kansas City may not be taken seriously; however, with a weapon like number 48 coming out of the ‘pen to close out a game, the batters tend to tighten their grip and accept their fate more often than naught. For this simple fact alone, I have to believe that the Royals are headed in the right direction on the shoulders of the young talent, and on the arm of their closer.
The Case for Mariano Rivera
Umm, he’s Mariano Rivera. Case closed.
Seriously though, Mo has shown tremendous durability throughout his 14-year career with the Yankees and 2008 was no different. In fact for the Rivera’s arm has been salvaged the last few seasons without being depended on to close out games by pitching multiple innings at an alarming rate. With his 39 saves ranking him seventh in the majors, minus a shaky July (a whopping…3.27 ERA) Rivera didn’t have an ERA worse than 1.88 in any other month of the season. His dominance didn’t end there though, as the numbers for hits allowed by month were as follows: 4, 7, 6, 11, 9 and closed out with a 4-hit September. With only one blown save opportunity, a 1.40 ERA, 0.67 WHIP and a 12.8K/BB ratio, it’s hard to say that he is whimpering his way through his golden years.
Typically, there is always concern with a hard-throwing 39-year olds health, simply succumbing to the aches, pains, strains and discomfort over a long 162 game schedule; however, Joe Girardi can fully trust that Rivera will be honest in his health and won’t press him to pitch on consecutive nights, or much more than one inning unless completely necessary. I expect Rivera to continue his dominance and keep the pace with his standard incredible stats.
A transition to the new digs across the street from “The House That Ruth Built” may require fans to bestow as “The House that Mo Built” with Rivera having the opportunity to change the recent melancholy results from the last eight seasons since their last World Series win of 2000, by leading the Yankees to playoff glory.
Don’t consider that statement as a prediction, but while it’s understood that Derek Jeter is in fact the captain of the Yankees, it’s hard to deny that as Mariano Rivera goes, so do the Yankees. The fan favorite will undoubtedly bring his ‘A’ game to the hill each and every time, and continue to close out games en route to chasing the career saves mark currently held by the active but dwindling Trevor Hoffman.
Entering the second season of his three-year/$45-million deal, Rivera is currently 72 back of the new Brewers closer. Should Rivera sit close once the 2010 season comes to a close, perhaps one last contract to reach the monument at 41-plus years old will be necessary. One way or the other, the magical career of “The Panama Express” is chugging along full-steam ahead into 2009 and showing no signs or need for any repairs.
FANTALYTICS FINAL CALL
Two hard-throwing closers from sunny destinations? A classic showdown of old versus new? Comparable 2008 statistics?Teams on opposite ends of the spectrum?
I’m sure many readers (Yankees fans included) are wondering how this can go any way other than to stick with the dependable one, safely sticking with the RP with a long and proven track record.So, here goes.With the way the 2008 season panned out for Joakim Soria, “The Kid” certainly showed glimmers of “The Professor” in his knack for closing out games.
And on the flip-side, “The Professor” showed glimmers of “The Kid” in his resiliency and ability to dominate, throwing hard all season long and confusing hitters with the consistency of all seasons past.
So, how does FANTALYTICS recommend one over the other? Who should you have taken in your draft when Jonathan Papelbon, Francisco Rodriguez and Joe Nathan are off the table? Do you go with “Mo” or with “Jo”?
Most projection lists and average draft ranking have faithfully slid the dependable Rivera in their top three or four spot of closers; however, I feel that the lower ranked (typically sixth or seventh in most rankings) Joakim Soria is actually the way to go. I have all the confidence in the world that we aren’t dealing with a one-hit…er, 1-year wonder. Joakim Soria is and will be the real deal for many years to come. Be it a single year, keeper, or dynasty league, Soria (and the Royals for that matter) will continue to improve, as well as rise through the ranks of the MLB.
Furthermore, you can expect the Royals to play in many tight games which further increased his effectiveness and create a more impactful quantity of save opportunities for the slender Mexican phenom.The statistics will be tight for sure; however, with father time waiting to catch up to the Panamanian closing legend, durability may become the Achilles heel of this conversation and ultimately affect the outcome of this decision.
Taking risks and winning the small battles are what winning at fantasy baseball usually comes down to. Taking a “risk” on Soria is like cashing a check written by Bill Gates…It’s going to clear.
