FANTALYTICS – VOLUME 8

by Adam Forsyth

Phil Hughes vs. Jordan Zimmermann

In this edition of FANTALYTICS we have a pair of arms that the future appears to be nothing but bright. This is a tale of two 23-year olds that have taken totally different paths to get where they are right now. It is a tale of the biggest of big markets, versus the smallest of small markets. A story of a major league dynasty against a…well, I suppose you can just remove the “dy” and consider this a nasty organization that is struggling to find the right mix. Ah yes folks, we’re talking Phil Hughes of the mighty, free-spending New York Yankees, against the zip filled arm of Washington Nationals Jordan Zimmermann.

Both are young and dynamic in their own right. Both are somewhat struggling to this point of the season; however both are pegged as future top-end rotation starters, if not team aces. So strap yourself in folks, as it’s time for FANTALYTICS!

The Case for Phil Hughes

In speaking about the different paths, the Yankees attempts to bring Hughes to the big club on regular duty in 2007 at the tender age of only 20 hasn’t been rosy. To his credit, Hughes has battled and shown at times that he belongs. In fact; in only his second career start, Hughes threw a gem by tossing 6.1 innings of no-hit ball against a potent Texas line-up. The only reason he didn’t stay longer is because he left the game with a hamstring injury. It was a hamstring injury that cost him most of rest of the 2007 season.

Injuries and inconsistency have been the curse to Hughes thus far in his rollercoaster of a career. Hughes was held winless in 2008 after starting the season with an ERA of 9.00, an oblique injury that was originally thought to be a slight pull turned into a nightmarish 117 game absence.

This season, a couple of areas of concern from this season, it has to be his control as his K/BB ratio of 1.78 is lackluster for a guy with his a minor league ratio of 4.72. Also, is his knack of giving up the long ball. Through six starts and just under 30 IP, Hughes has given up six round-trippers, which heightens concerns about location.

So why then is Phil Hughes considered such a talent, with nothing but upside and with potential? You cannot deny that the kid has got the goods. If the former 1st round pick is able to put his finger on what he needs to do physically and mentally to be conditioned and dependable, he could be spectacular. He has all the tools to be a dominating force.
Being a Yankee is only icing on the cake as they are typically going to provide the run support that will help him in the win column.

The Case for Jordan Zimmermann

We turn our attention now to the Nationals current project, which to this point has been average at best in his major league rookie season. In his eight starts, Zimm has gone no less than 5.0 IP, but has given up five or more runs in five of those eight starts. There is much work to be done, but for the most part, he hasn’t looked out of place. He looks as if some fine tuning would really do the trick.

Now, I’m not suggesting a trip back down to the minor league level to re-establish his dominance or anything; however, I’m sure that pitching coach Randy St. Claire can attempt to make his mental game tougher, ensuring confidence on the mound will translate into better results.

Considering the seven HR’s that he’s given up in his 46 IP, he’ll surely have to work on that aspect of his game to lessen the ERA inflation. All in all, the 2nd round pick from 2007 has some shining statistics in his line; for instance, an impressive 3.36 K/BB ratio, along with a notable 9.20 K/9IP stat that displays the ability in the kids arm and causes further fantasy owner saliva at the potential this kid brings on the hill.

Being a pitcher on the Nats’ certainly has its’ downside. Wins, run support, solid defense (league “leading” 45 errors, to go with an MLB low .975 fielding percentage) are things that just don’t come with the territory. However, he will get the experience of growing in a situation where he can be the man. A top-level starter, where right now he is facing the number four or five in a rotation, next year, he may be slotted against the number one or two of most teams, as he’ll surely work his way up in rotation status.

Expect big things from this kid, even if it happens to be in the lowly baseball depths of D.C.

FANTALYTICS FINAL CALL

What is the call when discussing these two supposed future aces? Really, they both have their place in moving forward en route to many great years and all in all above standard careers. Both will be able to provide you help in categories with Hughes more than likely having the edge in the wins column, while Zimmermann an edge in K’s. Who is more likely to be talked about in five years from now?

Who gets you going more when you see them take the hill? While we’ve obviously had more opportunities to see Phil Hughes, as the Yankees garner much more nationwide attention and broadcast time, I beg of you to tune in to a Nationals game where Jordan Zimmermann is starting. He, even with his ERA over 6.00 is the type of pitcher that you would pay to watch.

He has such an impressive arsenal of pitches, and the type of movement on hard thrown stuff that makes you weep in your seat. In the words of the great golfer Gary Potter in the 1996 film spectacle Happy Gilmore, Zimmermann should try to “Harness in the good energy, block out the bad. Harness. Energy. Block. Bad.” If he’s able to do that, it’s not out of this world to say that this kid could be a perennial All-Star.

My guess is that Hughes will end up on the DL with some strange injury that will nag him yet again, while Zimmermann continues to grow and discover his ability. Final line on Zimm: 8W, 4.70 ERA, 190K, 1.37 WHIP.

FANTALYTICS – VOLUME 7

By: Adam Forsyth

Who is Fantasy Baseball’s Top Catcher: V-mart or McCann?

It’s been a while, so here at Waiversharks.com, we thought we would throw out a first quarter challenge to owners pondering the best possible backstop option in 2009! With the return of “The Bearded One” from the DL, what better time to square off head-to-head with the all-star masked man whose successful return from a forgettable 2008 was a pre-season hot topic?

While there are more top-tier catchers than ever with fantasy qualities that easily draw attention (and manager saliva) to their eye-popping stats, these two guys are both easily the top notch options for anyone seeking a fantasy title. (As Holden may have quipped - nothing is phony about either of them.) My job is to bring you the tools to understand, and I will attempt to break down the stats as well as provide you with all of the intangibles to do what is right for your team and your shot at fantasy superiority.

The Case for Victor Martinez

I hope that I wasn’t alone prior to the season when I chose to totally ignore the thrust of fantasy gurus that chose to write off the switch-hitting phenom. Not that anyone could imagine the return to form that the sometimes catcher, sometimes first baseman has displayed through the first quarter of the season. To be honest, there was a lot of concern even from the Indians staff of the sudden drop in power experienced in 2008 from the dependable 20 plus home run stud.

He has seemingly silenced all critics though, as at only 30 years of age, 2008 could only be understood as an anomaly and not a reality caused by years of abuse behind the plate. As mentioned before, this years’ start at the dish has definitely shot him up to the top ranks of catcher options, and while batting over .400 is no easy task at any point in the season, Martinez is looking extremely comfortable again.

With a slumping Tribe offense, expect V-Mart to constantly be the focal point of pulling them out of their troubles, as his leadership capabilities will allow him to help the youngsters out of slumps. Hopefully; a welcomed return from a finally healthy Travis Hafner, will only further the protection he receives at the plate.

The Case for Brian McCann

A bushier beard has swallowed the 25-year old backstops face, but thankfully has also allowed us to forget about the slow start that puzzled many owners early on in this year’s campaign. It has allowed us to come to grips that the struggles at the dish were nothing more than the issues with his vision, and his inability to play through the struggles instead of getting it taken care of.

One way or the other, since returning from the DL; and his newly issued specs, the “outdoorsman” has been mashing at a tremendous pace upping his average nearly .100 points. While he only has three long balls to his name this year, his stats across the board are consistent enough with that of what he has produced in his first three full seasons behind home plate in Atlanta that Braves fans and fantasy owners alike can breathe a collective sigh of relief.

With the opportunity to forget about his vision troubles, McCann will have to get used to having the goggles on, but if the first 30 post DL at-bats are any indication, he should be fine. Expect a full rebound from the kid and while the season is a marathon and not a sprint, we can assume the re-energized swagger to continue through September.

FANTALYTICS FINAL CALL

It wouldn’t be crazy to just call it a draw, as these two backstops can pull up numbers that would be parallel over the course of a full season. With around 40 games in the books, who will put up the best numbers the rest of the way though? Is it unimaginable to believe that Martinez can continue to hit at above a .400 clip? Probably so. Can McCann’s torrid pace in return from the DL continue through the dog days of summer while catching in over 120 games? Probably not.

So, somewhere in the middle would be the easiest solution right? Well, as usual, some of this is based on intuition and a hard look at the numbers. Not just this years’ numbers, but from seasons past as well.

Intuition leads me to believe that the Indians can’t be as bad as they’ve played and at only 3.5 games ahead of the deplorable Washington Nationals as the worst team in baseball, Eric Wedge’s job is certainly on the line. So, things can only get better for a team that could and probably should compete in the ho-hum AL Central. They may let him go and decide to go with an even more prominent youth movement; however, I expect them to at least be able to shake off any off the troubles and at least make a go of it the rest of the way.

You have to assume that a surge by the Indians can only help keep Martinez ’ numbers up…right? I can confidently say yes to that answer.

Intuition also leads me to believe that neither of these guys can really continue to mash at the same pace, so what it comes down to is some hard numbers. Martinez will split duties behind the plate with Kelly Shoppach and play first as mentioned at nearly a 60/40 split to keep him fresh and allow the wear and tear to be minimal. This has to be considered a plus, as while the Braves brought him David Ross to eliminate some of the stress that a 162 game schedule can have on a catcher who’s bat is tough to take out of a line-up, it is McCann that will probably be crouching 80 percent of the teams final 120 games, or around 96 games. Compared to the probable 65-70 that Martinez will catch in and that is a big deal. (Just ask any major league catcher how big of a deal that is!)

Each player has stats that are strong and similar throughout their career pre and post All-Star break, meaning that neither are more strong at a certain point of the schedule, which is a nice plus to both, because you don’t have to worry about a great start, slow finish type player that you can count on. While McCann has a touch more speed, I think if you had to make a choice, V-Mart has the more lethal power bat.

All of that being said, and the return to form being a non-issue now, I think that you have to determine that Victor Martinez is the legitimate choice to this edition of FANTALYTICS.

You can expect the ridiculous numbers to tail off a bit; however, a line of .320-25-100, along with 100+ runs scored from a catcher eligible position put him up there in the realm of the Fantasy Elite. So I say, welcome back Victor, it’s nice to see you again!