Read Wednesday’s Post…

The Case for Nick Markakis

What vehicle typifies Nick Markakis? Since Nick is a powerful throwback player, we see him in a muscle car vehicle similar to the original Fast & Furious car, which we believe was a 1970 Dodge Charger. He even resembles Vin Diesel a bit when he shaves his head!

Yes, Nick Markakis is having himself another solid season; however, we aren’t seeing a continued rise in his development. Is he going to be a career .300 hitter with 20 HR power and nice RBI contribution? While this isn’t something that fantasy owners would turn their nose up at, could he ever develop into a 30/30 type hitter that some deemed him prior to the 2008 season? Perhaps, but thus far, he hasn’t taken the strides to appear that he will be able to do so.

The 26-year old lefty’s numbers are nothing to sniff at, currently hitting over .290 with eight long balls and 45 RBI’s. His speed hasn’t been used effectively after topping out at 18 swipes in ’07; Nick dropped to 10 last year and has only two thus far after 70 games.

Markakis is still somewhat the focal point of the O’s offensive attack; however, with the surge of Adam Jones’ development along with the continued steady performance of Brian Roberts and the often under-valued Aubrey Huff, the pressure has been lightened to become the next great O-Bird. I don’t necessarily feel as if this is the ceiling for Nick the Greek (er…the half-Greek that is) and I truly expect him to have a second half surge that will raise the expectations and energize the confidence in his progress.

A glaring stat to be critical of on Markakis, would have to be his inability to start a rally. His BA without runners on is a paltry .268 and gets even worse when there is an out dipping to a measly .152. Should he be depended on as a catalyst in Maryland , especially after signing a big 6-year $66 million deal, it’s something that he is going to be depended on as a majority of AB’s over the course of a season come in such situations.

The Case for Andre Ethier

What car would make chef “Andre Ethier’s” mouth water? Playing out in LA, it’s gotta be a convertible! Andre is sort of a low key guy though – leaving the bling and media attention to Manny and Kemp – so we put Ethier in a silver James Bond 007 inspired Aston Martin V8 Vantage Roadster.

It has been a bit of a strange season for Andre Ethier. One that started out with great expectations and excitement about him taking the next step in his career, to that of disappointment from a bit of a slow start, followed by a heated month, to another slump, to…you get the picture.

With Manny Ramirez’ soon return to the fold after his 50 game suspension for steroid use, Ethier may be on tap for a 2nd half swell in his stats that will please fantasy owners and compliment their patience with his up and down trends.

The product of Arizona State University is on track to surpass his career highs in terms of power and stolen bases; however, across the board Ethier has slipped in the remainder of his peripherals. Runs scored, doubles and batting average have taken a noticeable decline which isn’t due to anything particular and can be excused as bits of bad luck and timing issues. Unfortunately at 27, it was previously assumed that this could be a break-out type season and with a crowded Dodgers outfield, Joe Torre may have to do some juggling to keep everyone in Dodger blue happy.

A slam on Ethier would have to be his inability to cash in when the table is set for him. Hitting only .233 with RISP and bringing home 33 RBI’s in 90 AB’s isn’t anything that puts a tag of elite amongst the top OF ranks, and things get even worse with two outs, dropping down near the Mendoza line to .205.

FANTALYTICS FINAL CALL

Ultimately, I keep wondering and thinking of legitimate reasons as to why I continue to do this to myself; however, a decision must be made. With so much on the line and only a tad more than half of the season remaining, who out of this group will continue to mash and become a post All-Star juggernaut at the dish? Who if any will have the fantasy air slowly leak out of their unlimited ceiling air balloon?

In a group of this level, if you are lucky enough to have one of these thoroughbreds honing the outfield behind first and second base, you are a happy camper, so let’s get that out of the way.

But seriously, a lot has to be taken into account and if all things are considered, I’m going to comfortably go with Nick Markakis as my respected winner, in a close near photo-finish with SUPER SPECTACULAR SUMMER RF EXTRAVAGANZA silver medalist Justin Upton. I truly feel as if the torrent pace that Upton has set in the first half won’t be able to keep up, all the while believing in Nick Markakis and his knack for upping the tempo and padding his stats after the All-Star break.

Find a Nick Markakis Bobblehead on eBay

Markakis’ numbers post midsummer classic (with the exception of last year when he was dealing with injuries) are tremendously better than in the cooler months prior and an increase of drastic percentage isn’t pushing the limits. There isn’t a guarantee that he will be able to dominate statistically in comparison to the others in their final lines comes seasons end; but, we are looking at the remainder of the season here and I see some cushy second half numbers when thoughts come popping into my crazy FANTALYTICAL mind.

Upton may be the winner when it comes to the final numbers come October, Cruz may belt the most round-trippers, Pence may have the greatest peripheral line contributing in everything from triples to OBP, Ethier may surge with Man-Ram back and not lose any PT in a jammed Dodger line-up; however, it is the left-handed #21 that I see taking the cake when it comes to performance from this point on.

HAPPY CANADA DAY!!!

The Case for Nelson Cruz

What should Nelson Cruz - cruise in? A 2010 G8 Sport Truck or modern day El Camino! Sure, the project was scraped by General Motors, but with the dough Nelson will be making the next few years, he could afford to build his own!

Power to burn in a notoriously favorable home park gives this chic pick from previous seasons a gold star as Nelson Cruz has exceeded any expectations after a couple of iffy opportunities of failure. At 28 (will turn 29 on July 1st) it appears that Cruz has allowed disgruntled owners to easily forget the challenges endured in yesteryear by going deep 18 times while clubbing home 45 big RBI’s through his first 250 AB’s. Throw in his 11 swipes and this kid is really showing his worth in his first full-time, full season gig.

Cruz has touched close to a .300 BA on several occasions this season; however, sitting at the mid .260 range is probably an indication of where he will comfortably settle. Striking out nearly 25% of the time will hurt this average, and should he find the plate discipline that currently eludes him, he’ll be a more reliable .275 to .285 hitter.

The injury to Josh Hamilton and struggles of Chris Davis don’t help Cruz out as far as line-up protection goes; however, he is currently being relied upon to be a main contributor to a confusing Rangers attack and has to be considered a staple in the middle of the order for the near future.

Take note though; in being the “senior” of this group and currently in his “prime years” of professional baseball, Cruz is probably displaying what we should expect for the next five years right now. We must consider this when comparing him with the four others within this group.

The Case for Hunter Pence

What should Hunter Pence drive? Well, Pence is from Texas , so a Cadillac, but he’s tall so a shiny pearl white Escalade suits him…and since he’s a pretty efficient player – let’s make it a Hybrid baby!

After a somewhat forgettable “two steps back” season of 2008, this Texan has solidified himself as a solid five-tool fantasy contributor returning to the promise displayed in his rookie season. Hitting comfortably over the .320 mark, while powering double digit HR’s and close to double digit steals, Pence is being used effectively in the line-up by not being placed in a pressure filled position and commonly following the likes of a Carlos Lee, Miguel Tejada or the Big Puma to provide him with some quality pitches each time he digs in.

Pence isn’t getting the tremendous RBI opportunities that someone in the 3-4-5 spots do; however, he maintains a near .300 BA (currently .298) with runners on base and an above average .333 BA with RISP with two outs. This shows that Pence is getting more comfortable when submersed in high-pressure situations.

If we had to come up with a knock about Pence, it would have to be with his struggles for consistency. While it hasn’t been as magnified this season; last season, Pence had months of .260, .346, .200, .294, .223 and .302 and while his extra base power remained steady, his ability to get on base, steal and score runs was directly affected. Pence has worked hard to rid himself of any stigma of being an inconsistent hitter which has pleased fantasy owners that bought into this blue chip stud years ago.

The Case for Justin Upton

Justin Upton – Would Updog pimp his ride? Probably – But for sure, it’s gotta be bulked up & powerful! And since Baby Upton plays for the Baby Snakes out in Arizona - what better powerful desert crawler is there than a Hummer? …& maybe even a couple of “ladies” to help push BJ’s younger brother out of a sand dune!

After a somewhat disappointing 2008, many fantasy owners weren’t sure of what to expect from the MLB’s younger Upton brother and with the oft-anemic D’Backs offense constantly being a concern, you wouldn’t think that having a 21-year old leading the charge would be possible. However, Justin Upton is certainly laying the foundation for what will hopefully be an impressive fantasy career.

Find a Justin Upton Bobblehead on eBay

Ranking 1, 2 or 3 in every statistical team category at his age is more than impressive and through 71 team games having an OPS above 1.000 is nothing short of phenomenal. He has cut down on his whiffs by nearly an entire AB (2.94AB/K in ’08 compared to 3.87AB/K this season) all the while appearing more patient each time he digs in. Positioned 3rd in the line-up, Upton has been given every opportunity to thrive and is showing that he isn’t willing to move from such an honor.

Upton is one homer away from tying last years’ mark of 15 (in over 100 less AB’s), is challenging to score 100 runs and could inevitably reach the 30/30 plateau. Not bad for being on a team that ranks 3rd from the bottom in terms of BA that typically depends on its’ pitching staff to win games.

Solid concern of the 2005 1st overall pick and his whiff-ability has a tendency to expose some other weaknesses (.267 BA with RISP), as striking out in big moments and his inefficiency in battling back when behind in a count are regularly spotlighted. You can discount a majority of that to his youth and lack of exposure; however, this will definitely be a key focus for his future development.

Tune in Thursday July 2nd to read the other two Right Field playas - and who we think is the #1 fantasy baseball right fielder for 2009!

FANTALYTICS – VOLUME 4

By Adam Forsyth

Ah yes, FANTALYTICS is back in session!

This time we are taking a look at a pair of outfield gems in different time-zones. Heck, different countries for that matter. One shags fly balls in right field for the Toronto Blue Jays; the other covers the grounds in centre field wearing Dodger Blue. Both are good defensively and have speed to burn.

Neither is noted for out of this world type power, but both can still knock the ball out of the park with consistency. Any fantasy manager would be proud, happy and settled should they be fortunate enough to land either one of these middle-of-the-lineup gems but we want to pass on the 411 on who will give you more for the upcoming season.

In this edition, we take a look at two dynamic outfielders on route to stellar careers. Sit back, relax and put your mind at ease, as we’ll break down this scenario and make sense of an extremely tough call.

Alex Rios vs. Matt Kemp, in today’s edition of FANTALYTICS, will not disappoint the most savvy of fantasy managers in providing the comfort for you, the owner, to make the necessary moves to climb atop the heap in your league.

The Case for Alex Rios

After increasing his home run and RBI totals from year to year (peaking at 24 and 85 respectively in 2007) Rios’ power numbers dipped a bit, even though he accumulated a similar number of at-bats as his career high season.

Rios did improve his status in a couple of other categories, with the most notable improvement being his jump in stolen bases and attempts. Rios had averaged 15 swipes per season, with a career high 17 coming in the same magical 2007 season, but ran his way to 32 steals (through 40 attempts) and an impressive 80% success rate.

His power totals disappointed many fantasy managers, as they were expecting the growth in his power to continue on a gradual incline. Minus the great display that he put on at the All-Star game in New York during the HR Derby, Rios seemed to eliminate all focus on power for the majority of the season.

The 28-year old kept a clean .291 batting average, which falls in line with his career .288 average. Even though he didn’t go yard with enough frequency, he still had plenty of extra base power, as 38% of his 185 hits went for more than a single bag, which is slightly higher than his career average of extra base hits of 35% prior to the 2008 season.

With Vernon Wells already showing signs of being in and out of the Jays line-up due to various injuries, it’s anyone’s guess who the tall Puerto Rican sensation will receive protection from in the free-swinging core of young batsmen that Cito Gaston will push out each night. With players like rookie Travis Snider, second-year outfielder Adam Lind whiffing at a steady rate, and the rest of the line-up being filled with lesser powered, or light-hitting dependable types, it could come down to Rios being expected to generate his own offense on a regular basis and be relied on more heavily to be the generator that pushes the Toronto offense.

Rios will continue to develop into a solid fantasy option. I expect his power numbers to jump up by at least 50 percent, and get into a more comfortable range of being noted as a 25-30 HR-100+ RBI-30+ steal player. The decent power and good speed combination is always difficult to find in the world of fantasy players, so to get those types is always the first instinct for a sharp manager.

The multi-category OF’s are much higher regarded than those that contribute in only one or two areas, so while Rios continues to establish himself as one of those dependable three and four category guys, he’ll keep moving up and up the ranks, and will likely ease his way into being considered the most valuable everyday Blue Jay.

The Case for Matt Kemp

In working his way up to the 2008 season, Matt Kemp has finally established himself as the everyday center fielder for the Los Angeles Dodgers. After a very successful minor league career that saw him post a .306-27-90-23 season in 2005, Kemp made the jump at the end of the following season, getting into 52 games, and saw even more action in 2007 that saw him get into 98 games.

The slow introduction has paid off immensely, as the Dodgers have now got a valuable player on their hands. Kemp has a nice blend of speed, decent pop, and baseball knowledge that makes him seem older than the age on his birth certificate suggests. At 24, Kemp brings true 25/35 type numbers to the table. With the recent re-signing of Manny Ramirez to the Dodgers fold, and surrounded by a smorgasbord of talent, this Dodger line-up will only add to the value of Kemp, allowing the Oklahoma native to grow even more by seeing better pitches in each and every at-bat.

Currently penciled in the lower end of the line-up, it wouldn’t be outlandish to see them capitalize on his speed a bit more and have him slide up the line-up to see more AB’s as he progresses.

Kemp was extremely consistent throughout the entire 162 games last season, and wasn’t a victim to the slump. Surprisingly his power numbers were ballooned at the usually pitcher-friendly Dodger Stadium, as he hit 14 of his 18 bombs, which could just mean that he is a fan of home cooking! One way or the other, the Dodgers line-up can be considered one of baseball’s most well-rounded trios, and Matt Kemp is a big part of that. Kemp is a big part of the Dodgers plans moving forward. With a nucleus of young talent, surrounded by a selection of experienced talent, the rise of the Dodgers is on schedule.

FANTALYTICS FINAL CALL

Yet another tough call for FANTALYTICS as there isn’t much not to like in either of these two talented outfielders. For those in split outfield leagues, both have multi-position eligibility (CF and RF for either), and comparable lines across the board to this point. They both have tremendous upside, and are both still developing their entire skill set en route to being statistical leaders on their teams for many years to come.

So, who gets the edge and why?

I wrestled with this Final Call almost as much as Kemp VS Torrealba!

I have, after much unsettled sleep however, come to the conclusion that Matt Kemp is the winner in this close race of thoroughbreds.

Three years the elder, Rios is going to have a tough go this season, being depended on to be the catalyst and the primary power source. With Vernon Wells in and out of the line-up due to injuries, and surrounded by rookie and young talent, it may be too much to ask for. It simply may not equate to the monster season that the Jays will need to stay competitive.

On the other hand, Kemp is wedged in a line-up where protection is a given, and star-power is overflowing, with the top-to-bottom who’s who putting the Dodgers in the upper echelon of MLB offensive juggernauts. While Kemp and Rios are both significant five-tool contributors, the upside of the difference in age makes Kemp’s statistics even more impressive, as he has achieved the status and propelled himself to the top of the outfield food chain in the fantasy ranks.

I’d expect quality numbers from Rios this year, as he is sure to maintain pace in being a dependable 25/25 player.

With Kemp, I can say without concern that the sky is the limit. He has the raw power, and is blessed with wheels. Kemp could hit 30 long balls, while swiping 35+ bags with regularity, as soon as 2009. With the Jays being in a tough AL East, and facing rotations like the Yankees, Red Sox and Rays with regularity, the Dodgers schedule proves much more friendly and will only further push the divide on these two blue-chip studs.

I’ll lay it on the line and push the Dodger OF’s line to be along the lines of: 100-.305-28-105-37 and sleep well tonight.

Note: Cases for both Joey Votto and Chris Davis from Waiver Sharks exclusive comparison blog Fantalytics - can be viewed today over at Knox Bardeen’s website Crooked Pitch. You can find today’s Fantalytics - Special Edition Post here.

Crooked Pitch

After years of paying for not always great fantasy baseball advice, Knox Bardeen created Crooked Pitch in 2007 to give away his “expertise” in hopes that the old adage “you get what you pay for” didn’t bite him in the ass. Knox is a member of the Fantasy Baseball Writers Association and writes at Fanhouse. You can find him in fantasy baseball arguments on twitter, and as a weekly columnist at Fantasy Pros 911.

FANTALYTICS Volume #3 - FINAL CALL

By: Adam Forsyth

Not only chicks dig the long-ball!

A lot of fantasy managers salivate at the opportunity to grab a pure power option, and with the first base position almost demanding it, it is nice to have some options where the players aren’t solely noted and can contribute across the board in both standard 5X5 formats, as well as in rotisserie leagues.

When reviewing everything that both of these players bring to the table, it’s a decision that you can’t necessarily go wrong should you select either…However, that’s not what we are about here at FANTALYTICS!

We are about making the tough choices that provide you with the upper hand when going into draft day. With that being said, the dual-position eligible Chris Davis provides a couple of valuable tools that Mr. Votto cannot.

The protection that he will receive in the Rangers line-up is insurmountable in comparison to the mix of talent in Ohio. The power upside that Davis provides is much more difficult to attain than the slight difference that may separate them in other categories such as SB’s and AVG.

Davis will fit the mold this year as a dynamic slugger that provides happy owners with a projected line of .285+ AVG 37-102-6.

Enjoy the offensive surplus that the Texas Rangers will provide as well, because as good as their batting is, their pitching is just not there yet. Give them some time though, as they are slowly getting better!

We want to re-iterate. This is today’s edition of “Fantalytics Final Call” To read cases for both sides of the Davis/Votto coin, flip over to Crooked Pitch to see what helped lead us to this exciting fantasy baseball up and comer conclusion!