The Case for Clayton Kershaw

The meteoric rise of Clayton Kershaw certainly got off to a rocky, if not extremely frustrating start in 2009. The left-handed Texan slumbered through a 0-2 start in April with a uninspired 7.29 ERA. The Dodgers could have at that point decided to explore options for the kid, as at only 21 years of age and through slightly less than 30 starts, he hadn’t fully proven that he could handle the mental side of the game. He had yet to show the same swagger and confidence displayed at every level of the game to that point of his career.

LA decided to stick with Kershaw in their rotation, and he turned in what can be acknowledged as a pretty good season.

While that 8-8 record reflects satisfactory performance, a little digging shows that “Kersh” really shone at times and simply dominated at others! document.write(’Joe Torre‘); seemed to handle Kershaw delicately, never letting him exceed seven innings on only one occasion, and keeping a keen eye on his pitch count. While this may have contributed to his lowly win-loss totals, it seemingly kept him fresh all year as he made 30 starts and tossed for 171 innings total.

Kershaw was phenomenal in months that start with ‘J’, by going 5-2 in 11 starts, with a 1.39 ERA and mowing down 62 batsmen at a nearly 1/IP clip.

While I realize in this battle, both are stuck in what seems to be a light-hitting division, this former first round pick has the benefit of tossing against two of the lightest hitting rosters in the bigs (Padres and Giants). While that doesn’t always end up being the case, it is at least worth mentioning that more than ½ of the Dodgers season games are to be played in the friendly confines of Dodger Stadium, Petco and AT&T, along with the plus of playing 20+ times versus those squads definitely bodes well for his confidence and continued growth.
Needless to say, we can expect C.K. to fine tune his 2009 stat line, and improve on the .500 win-loss record and strongly place his name alongside some of fantasy’s best SP offerings.

The Case for Matt Cain

Largely forgotten after a ho-hum 2008 season, that saw his confidence get rattled, Matt CainMatt Cain stormed back with vengeance and utter destruction for opposing hitters. Led by career low ‘s in walks, ERA and WHIP, Cain’s resurgence also contributed to new found career highs in complete games, innings pitched and most importantly, wins.

Now, Cain didn’t bomb his 2008 Giants season, it just seemed as if he had a “one step forward, two steps back” type campaign. He shelled that stigma early by going six innings or deeper in all but three of his starts. (one of those, he left the start with an injury and missed his next start, so it really could be only two!)

Needless to say, Cain is a huge part of the intimidating rotation set forth by the city by the Bay, as they will surely cause headaches and heartache for the competition. Cain would have had an even more impressive line had he not had an erratic September, as he seemed to wear down as the season did.

One way or the other, he pitches extremely well at home, and doesn’t have any glaring tendencies on the road, so he is not just a measure of a pitchers’ park. Cain re-established himself as a worthy fantasy number two option and should he continue to develop with the same dedication shown to his craft, the only knock can be his need to put together a start to finish that doesn’t taper off after the all-star break.

Cain has the fortune of being a teammate of two-time Cy Young winner Tim Lincecum, which takes the pressure and expectations off a bit. He isn’t going to be expected to be a slump-breaker, which bodes well for the 25-year old native of Dothan, Alabama .

The Giants are a work in progress no doubt, but with sure-fired young arms like Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum, Jonathan Sanchez and Madison Bumgarner in the mix, they’ll give you little to no break from some nasty stuff.

Fantalytics Final Call

So, what are we looking at here? A fine young left-hander that is entering that magical third season. One that many fantasy slappies (including myself…) believe is the put-up or shut-up season, directing the future of their statistical performance. A 25-year old hard throwing righty who is finally putting it ALL together for an light hitting roster with oodles of potential.

Truth be told, either of these arms would make me tingle with delight should I be perusing my post draft day results; however, I am speaking with the guy that has both of them staring right back in his face, saying…”Who do I take here? I need another strong SP, do I take Clayton, or Cainer?” To that guy, I say…Go with the Dodgers Kershaw.

The fact of the matter is, the dominance that C.K. showed in the mid-months in the bright lights of L.A. is simply a glimpse into the type of goods this kid brings to the table. Plus, a lefty in a light hitting division, full of pitcher friendly parks is only screaming out to me even louder that he is the ultimate choice.

While Matt Cain is no slouch, I simply don’t like how he hasn’t been able to go wire to wire with good numbers and always seems to have an anomaly or two in his season. That is the type of stuff that fantasy gurus try to avoid at all costs.

It’s very difficult to predict the hot streak - and to always pounce on a player at just the right moment, so I’ll always take the guy that is steady year round. While it’s too early to guarantee that this version of the famous Kershaw Knives will be able to cut loose from the pack of rising MLB pitching stars.

The fact that this particular Kershaw knifed himself through adversity - and a rough start to the 2009 MLB season, speaks volumes for both this kids character, and make-up.

Clayton Kershaw’s Fearless Forsyth Foreshadow :
(32 Starts) 186 IP, 15W, 208K, 89BB, 2.86

By Adam Forsyth

Allright, MEAT…Give him your heat!

There’s TWELVE DAYS OF CHRISTMAS, TWELVE APOSTLES, THE DIRTY DOZEN, HECK there’s even TWELVE MONKEYS.

We just couldn’t leave off at #11, so here’s three MLB young guns who can really crank the numbers up on the radar:

FANTALYTICS – VOLUME 12 / THE FINAL 2009 FANTALYTIC

We understand that the fantasy focus has changed gears to the world of the NFL, as well as (to a much smaller scale) the NHL. It’s unfortunate to admit, but with football in full swing, and the NHL opening up training camps and pre-season play, along with the fact that most playoffs for baseball leagues have entered their final innings, we have to close the curtains on another great season of fantasy baseball. However, with 11 editions of FANTALYTICS in the books, the superstitious side of me took over and I just had to complete the circuit by adding a twelfth and final edition to what has been a sterling season of fun, passion and prediction.

document.write(’ Enter a very interesting, and in our eyes at least – a much hotter topic than “Bradgelina!” We anticipate plenty of intrigue when pitchers and catchers report next February, for Spring Training 2010 - which should be a most interesting season for first year arms. With several options at enormous impacts being the reality, we take into view three premiere prospects that will soon take the fantasy world by storm. Two right handed power-pitching studs, and a lefty that is about to turn the Giants into an extremely tough team to play against.

On a side note, I hope that you have enjoyed reading FANTALYTICS as much as I have in writing them, and hope that I have provided you with some insight, entertainment and an opinion that may have contributed in making your fantasy season a joy. I truly love them bringing to you and look forward to another exciting seasons’ worth in 2010.

With that being said, it’s time to buckle up folks as the final FANTALYTICS of 2009 is upon us!!!

The Case for Neftali Feliz

As previously written in a Shallow and the Deep, the sky is the limit for this dynamic flame-thrower who has done nothing but impress in the final third of the 2009 season as part of the Rangers bullpen. While the Rangers playoff hopes appear to be dangling by a thread, none of the blame can be attributed to the performance of this young, slender Dominican native as he has been outstanding in all but one appearance.

What’s even more impressive of this 21-year old has been his ability to maintain composure. While he hasn’t been placed in too many situations that would be considered as high-pressure, he has shot down the opposition with the style and dominance of a long-time veteran of the game. This audition has surely placed a message to Rangers ownership and management that come 2010, the name (and arm of for that matter) Neftali Feliz belongs in their rotation. A transition to the rotation isn’t always as seamless as many would think or hope; however, Feliz has a naturally gifted arm that makes his pitches look effortless.

His statistics are outlandish, keeping pace with the efforts expressed in our first article on him, by striking out 35, while giving up only five walks for a 7:1 ratio. Oh, and did I mention that hitters are swinging a .121 AVG. against him, totaling a WHIP of an obscene 0.60! Look, I understand that these stats are a representation of 26.2 IP; however, we can’t ignore how intriguing this kid has been. We should all be so blessed to have a kid at this age come through for our home teams, and pray that for some reason, it’s due to the fact that teams haven’t been able to do enough homework on him.

To this point, in a strange twist resisting to follow the norm, only Oakland has been able to touch him up a bit with his ERA swelling when he faces the usually light hitting A’s.

Ah yes, 2010 will be a big season for this hard-thrower, as if you haven’t heard of him yet, you certainly will.

The Case for Madison Bumgarner

With a name like Madison Bumgarner, it’s kind of hard not to um…garner attention. Fortunately for this this left-handed talent, the attention thrust his way has been nothing but love. Now, in 2010 it’s time for some fantasy love as he will more than likely play into the starting rotation of what is turning into a very impressive starting five.

Recently called-up following the celebration of his 20th birthday, after a near full season of downright supremacy at the High-A and AA level, this North Carolinian got his first career start against a shallow Padres line-up on September 8th. While he didn’t dominate per se, he did pitch fairly well going 5.1 innings in a no-decision, while giving up five hits, striking out four and giving up only two runs. (both solo bombs off the bats of Chase Headley and Kevin Kouzmanoff)

Bumgarner throws a lot of strikes and uses a nice blend of speeds to keep hitters on their toes. He’s not afraid to come inside and displays a huge amount of confidence in his stuff as he can throw his fastball, change-up and breaking ball with effectiveness and consistency. Surely at only 20 years of age, he will continue to develop and if he is managed properly, he could become part of the best rotations baseball has ever seen. With Tim Lincecum already hitting the scene, the oft “forgotten in the mix” Matt Cain, (and his 13 wins, and 2.71 ERA) Jonathan Sanchez, with his “I’m incredible since throwing my no-hitter” attitude, as well as a seemingly re-born Barry Zito (and his impressive 3.94 ERA with 10 wins), the Giants are a truly interesting team for the upcoming season.

The Giants may however decide to hold off another season and let “The Bummer” develop and continue his authority against the lesser beings that the minor leagues offer, and rather prep him for a full-time role (pending injury to any of their top-tier performers) in 2011. That is the only concern that I have in stamping my approval for him being “The man” in this list, as his ETA may be pushed, only hindered by a lesser necessity, and not obviously based on talent.

The Case for Stephen Strasburg

After finally signing “The Next Great Pitching Talent” to his first major league contract, many thought that they’d be seeing him throw on the threads of the Nationals prior to the closing of the 2009 season. Smartly, the Nats’ (not that those words have ever really belonged in the same sentence…OUCH!) chose to hold off on this “once in a lifetime” phenom until the opening of next season, and instead will display his goods in the Arizona Fall League once the MLB season closes.

The unfortunate truth is that should he fail even slightly, or not turn into the dominant top-tier ace of the rotation that he has been projected to be, it may be considered a failure. The pressure is certainly on him at this point and that is a tough pill to swallow for many. I see this kid from San Diego, as having the typical California persona though and that speaks well for his transition. He will be able to handle this and the fact that he will be doing it for the cellar dwelling Nationals can only help the evolution. Imagine if this were taking place in the Bronx, putting on the pinstripes how overwhelming the pressure would be?

While the attendance figures in D.C. will more than likely double (or even triple…) when Stras toes the hill, the expectation will be an exciting boost to a franchise that is in desperate need of enhancement. The ability to be a franchise savior will challenge him to be at his best and the desire to become a winner will hopefully overshadow the fact that he will never ever have to worry about another payday in his life. Throwing 102 MPH isn’t a gift that many can brag about. In fact, you can count on one hand the amount of professional arms that can do it with consistency; however, throw in the fact that he has a deceiving curveball, defying slider and slow-moving change, his ability to mix speeds and inability to miss the plate as his accuracy is extremely impressive. He basically controls the game with his stuff and that is something that can’t be said about too many young prospects prior to understanding how to pitch. We should all be excited and not give into the hype and cast him off. Give him a shot and simply watch and enjoy.

FANTALYTICS FINAL CALL

Unfortunately, one of these studs cream rises to the top higher than the others and while I usually hate to go along with what the rest of the world suggests, always attempting to be bold, confident and cocky in my own prophecies. This season, I have gone against the trend with success, some failure, and some near embarrassment, but I wouldn’t change a thing with how I have foreshadowed the season.

However; on this occasion, I must be a lemming and select none other than Mr. Stephen J. Strasburg as my dynamic, most impactful “young gun” heading into the 2010 season. Yes, it is about as shocking as me boldly prognosticating that Brandon Inge will never, EVER hit over .250 again in his career. Or, suggesting that Chipper Jones will never, EVER get 500 AB’s ever again! Or that while Todd Helton did in fact put together a decent season, his relevance in the world of fantasy can only be considered mildly interesting.

I know, I know, I feel like a schmutz, unfortunately, even if this guy turns out half as good as he was en route to being the most sought after first overall pick in the history of baseball, it will still be quite a career to write about. Yes, many “sure-fire”, “can’t miss” arms have come our way (see Mark Prior) and most have failed. I’m fully confident that this hard-throwing dynamo will continue to seek and achieve success at the highest level of competition. Even playing for the smelly Nats’ in the nations’ capital, Stras will outpitch, outwit and outlast the other two names in a battle of “Survivor” proportions.

N.L. Rookie of the Year candidate? Definitely. Future N.L. Cy Young winner? My magic 8-ball is strongly suggesting that this is likely. Of course I’m having fun, but to be realistic, the kid from San Diego State University is in fact about as real deal as you can get. Kudos to the other lads in their attempt to dethrone the Rookie stud arm of 2010, but coming up short in this competition may be a bit more drastic than in years past.

Fearless Forsyth 2010 Season Foreshadow : (25 Starts) 156 IP, 11W, 182K, 49BB, 3.07ERA, 1.11WHIP

Editors Note: This brings to close another fun filled season of fantasy baseball advice and predictions.

Once again Cubbies fans need to take solace in the fact that even though you’re once again not #1 this year…

There’s always next year! …The End.

FANTALYTICS – VOLUME 10

Wandy Rodriguez (30) vs. Scott Richmond (29) vs. Randy Wells (26)
vs. J.A. Happ (26) vs. Jeff Niemann (26)

The other day I was going over the statistics of this season, in attempts to determine what I can do to make a push for the Fantasy League playoffs, when something sort of jumped out at me. With the real season at slowly climbing over the 100 games played mark, I recognized that there are an unusually high number of pitchers over the age of 26 that are experiencing their first taste of success.

Now, many may argue a name or two out of the five that I have selected for this edition of FANTALYTICS; however, truth be told, I easily could have added several other names.

This season has been an interesting one with many premiere SP disappointments (ah-hem…Cole Hamels, Francisco Liriano, Rich Harden, Carlos Zambrano, Scott Baker to name a few) and unfortunately for wide-eyed pre-season daydreamers, the list could go on and on. That isn’t even taking into consideration the always annoying injuries that derail any hopes of a successful campaign that tend to affect many managers long term plans. (see Brandon Webb, Jake Peavy, John Lackey, Scott Kazmir, Dice-K for quick reference)

Thankfully, surprise success stories can assist savvy fantasy managers, willing to take chances; so, in honor of that I have decided to throw the names of these roster saving heroes into a hat for this, the 10th edition of FANTALYTICS.

For some that are experiencing DL angst and are sitting on the fantasy playoff fence, hopefully this edition will open up another window of opportunity as it is tough to pry a Roy Halladay, or Tim Lincecum type at this stage of the season. Our hopes are to give you the gusto to potentially add one of the names on this list which may provide your squad with the boost that is necessary to surpass the competition, giving your team that well earned shot at post-season glory.

The Case for Wandy Rodriguez

At 30 years of age, Wandy is the “senior” of this group and arguably a name that may not belong in contention of a late bloomer as he has experienced limited success in previous seasons. However, I beg to differ.

Despite the occasional Astros throwback uniform night, Rodriguez has still managed his greatest success as a starter this year with a 10-6 record, a sub 3.00 ERA (2.63 at post time) and is holding opponents to a .242 batting average against. Another impressive stat is his WHIP, which has dropped to 1.21 (career 1.41 prior to 2009) as he has limited some of the big innings that he used to give up.

Unfortunately playing for a team that has been battling the .500 mark the entire season, Rodriguez is playing with purpose as he has been effective, chalking up 16 quality starts out of his 22 starts thus far.

While his ERA is still nearly a full run lower when pitching in his home park, (2.12 vs. 3.20) gone is the stigma of being a liability on the road. (we shouldn’t bring up the 2007 season, but I wouldn’t be able to sleep tonight if I didn’t…2.94 home ERA, to go with his 6.37 ERA on the road) He has improved his K/BB ratio and currently is sitting around the 3:1 mark, making him even more valuable to fantasy owners.

Exposing a flaw in Wandy’s game would have to be his continued knack for giving up the long ball. While not at an extremely alarming rate, the righty started the season out extremely effective in giving up only one big knock through May; however, since then has given up 14 in his last 11 starts. It will be critical to keep that number under wraps in order for him to finish strong for what has been a very strong fantasy season.

The Case for Scott Richmond

Who the heck is Scott Richmond some of you may say? With limited coverage to some on lower level fantasy standouts north of the border, this 29-year old Canadian righty had only 5 professional starts to his credit prior to the 2009 season.

With DL visits becoming “the cool thing to do” in T.O., Richmond issued a “look at me” to owners worldwide when he was granted the opportunity and he has shown more than anything that he can handle the challenge. With a very impressive 1.20 WHIP, (as a starter) Richmond has been steady when his turn in the rotation comes up, even if his 6-5 record doesn’t shout success. His 3.69 ERA (once again, as a starter) should at least pique your interest.

The Vancouver native has gone six innings deep in all but five of his 14 starts, and has yet to give up more than seven hits in an outing. While eliminating his three appearances in spot relief lowers his statistical line, it proves that he is a much more effective starter that requires the chance to find his groove.

Now, we all know that Scott Richmond isn’t a household name, and that his two starts against AL East opponents resulted in losses; however, if used as a number five, or even as a streaming spotter, Richmond’s value continues to rise like fresh baked bread.

Moving forward, even the most optimistic must recognize that as the season winds down, inner-division series frequency typically increases. This simply means that Richmond down the stretch will likely seem more tough match-ups against the Red Sox, Yankees and Rays which could hurt his fantasy value as the season comes to a close.

The Case for Randy Wells

Lou Pineilla has voiced his opinion in praising the 26-year old “Windy City Savior” suggesting that he fears where the Cubbies would be without the contributions of the burly righty. Sitting at 8-4 with an ERA under 3.00 (currently 2.73) Wells has been a pleasant surprise on a team that has been hot and cold all season long. Experiencing power droughts and scoring issues off and on since opening day, the Cubs pitching staff has had to deal with their own rollercoaster ride.

With each member of the Cubbies rotation having dealt with nagging injuries, including multiple DL-stints, it’s been a real blessing to have Randy Wells ready to take the ball every time he has been called upon. Steady and consistent, the Illinois native has 13 quality starts to his credit, out of his 16 starts.

It appears that Wells’ tireless work to garner control of his pitches has finally broken through, as he is holding opponents to a .249 BAA, while flashing an extremely impressive 1.14 WHIP through 100+ innings.

The knock on Wells prior to this season was his flair for giving up the long ball; however, in giving up a respectable nine round trippers this season, there doesn’t seem to be the same level of concern.

On the flip side, a glaring concern has to be his inability to get hitters out with RISP. Currently his 7.71 ERA with RISP must draw attention, while furthermore a 14.46 ERA with RISP w/2 outs indicates that he hasn’t been able to close the deal in ending an inning, or limiting the damage. Imagine if he were able to have or use an out pitch to his benefit just how more impressive his line would be. Give him time, he may just get there.

The Case for J.A. Happ

It is unfortunate that we are catching Happ shortly after experiencing the first two losses of his season; fortunately, he put to rest murmurs of a negative streak with his second CG gem against the Colorado Rockies. The Illinois native gave up only four hits, while punching out 10 Rockies hitters en route to his eighth win of the season. This Phillies stud lefty has seamlessly stepped into a rotation in need and is garnering strong consideration for an NL R.O.Y. nomination.

After the injury to Brett Myers brought panic to the City of Brotherly love, J.A. shifted from the bullpen where he was mostly effective, to a rotation spot and hasn’t looked back since. Even after the deadline acquisitions of an aging Pedro Martinez and reigning AL Cy Young winner (and fellow lefty) Cliff Lee, a strong case for Happ to remain in the rotation throughout their push to the playoffs has been made. In fact manager Charlie Manuel and GM Ruben Amaro gave the Phils’ #43 a vote of confidence in assuring that his spot in the rotation is secure.

It could be due to the fact that he has tossed 12 quality starts in the 15 he has toed the mound thus far. One of the reasons for such success is that he is extremely tough on lefties while wringing up 6.73K/9IP this season allowing him to get himself out of any jams that he has positioned himself in.

Experiencing somewhat of a reverse “Wandy Rodriguez Syndrome”, (while not as dramatic) Happ has been much more effective in road starts. With a 3.77 home ERA, along with 1.36 WHIP versus an eye-popping 1.47 ERA and 0.88 WHIP as a starter; however, don’t buy into forcing an “only start him on the road” mentality, as the Northwestern product is just fine.

It may just be a representation of the opponents faced ( St. Louis , Baltimore , Boston at home, compared to Arizona , Florida , San Diego and Washington on the road). One way or the other, it is still imperative that Happ improves this statistical anomaly to be fully respected.

The Case for Jeff Niemann

At 6-foot, 9-inches, and darn near 300 pounds, Jeff Niemann is an intimidating force to be reckoned with when stepping on the mound. The former first rounder (4th overall in 2004) has come into his own in Tampa this season, when it was expected that another top-tier Rays starter would grab the world by storm in 2009.

Now, it’s not that David Price hasn’t been serviceable, truth be told, if anyone on the Rays gets recognition for AL R.O.Y. this season, it should be this big Texan.

Leading the Rays starters in both wins and ERA, Niemann has kept the Tampa Bay boat afloat with his cutting edge goods, and his ability to mix speeds and locations to effectively keep batters on their toes. With two complete game shutouts to his credit this season, Niemann has gone deep into games more often than naught, and has 13 quality starts to his name this season (through 19 starts).

Now, it’s not that we wouldn’t expect this from a high pick such as Niemann, it’s just that in this factory of pitching currently based in Tampa , at 26, and it may have been felt that he was a lost foot soldier, seeking only the opportunity to be the man. Fortunately for the Rays, 2009 has been that opportunity.

Hindering the gentle giant is his lackluster inner division performance. I know it’s the AL East, arguably the most difficult in baseball; however, it’s just that being in that tough division, if you struggle as a SP, you will certainly struggle to find long-term success. Simply stated, he’ll need to perform much better in his remaining starts within the division to fully justify the recognition that he has garnered throughout the first 100 or so games of 2009.

FANTALYTICS FINAL CALL

With all this being said a decision has to be made. Who is worthy of being the top banana in this bunch of late-blooming potassium filled fruity crop? With the statistics stacked up, compared and reviewed, is there anyone that is a clear and deserving champion of the Hardy Mums? (Re: late blooming wildflower…sorry for the reference)

While you have to respect what they each has brought to the table this season, helping their teams overcome rotation concerns and injuries, it has been a pleasant surprise in watching them grow and develop their own arsenal. It is always a manager’s hope when they make a pick-up of someone that may be flying under the radar to develop into one of these stories, seizing the opportunity and we can only hope that moving forward they continue the success that the steam in their choo-choo train has chugged up thus far.

Needless to say, for the remainder of this season, (along with a keen eye on the 2010 season), I truly feel as if J.A. Happ is the leader in this brigade of belated pitching talents. Philadelphia is the defending World Series champion and even without Brett Myers in the fold, have one of the strongest groups of starting pitchers in the National League.

It has only gotten stronger with their deadline acquisitions and moving through the push for the playoffs, expect Happ to continue to be in the thick of things.

With a comfortable lead in the NL East, the Phillies will be tough to catch and should be a force in a playoff series.

Happ has the kind of stuff that makes a SP tough to hit off of, as he uses a dynamic change of speeds and has an arm angle that promotes natural deception which makes him tough to hit.

While he may not have the ‘K’-fficiency of Rodriguez, the control of Wells, the intimidating presence of Niemann, or the intangibles of Richmond, what Happ is, is a nice, neat total package that will make him fantasy worthy for many seasons to come.

Fearless Forsyth Foreshadow : (10 Starts) 72.1 IP, 6W, 68K, 19BB, 2.79 ERA, 1.09 WHIP

FANTALYTICS – VOLUME 8

by Adam Forsyth

Phil Hughes vs. Jordan Zimmermann

In this edition of FANTALYTICS we have a pair of arms that the future appears to be nothing but bright. This is a tale of two 23-year olds that have taken totally different paths to get where they are right now. It is a tale of the biggest of big markets, versus the smallest of small markets. A story of a major league dynasty against a…well, I suppose you can just remove the “dy” and consider this a nasty organization that is struggling to find the right mix. Ah yes folks, we’re talking Phil Hughes of the mighty, free-spending New York Yankees, against the zip filled arm of Washington Nationals Jordan Zimmermann.

Both are young and dynamic in their own right. Both are somewhat struggling to this point of the season; however both are pegged as future top-end rotation starters, if not team aces. So strap yourself in folks, as it’s time for FANTALYTICS!

The Case for Phil Hughes

In speaking about the different paths, the Yankees attempts to bring Hughes to the big club on regular duty in 2007 at the tender age of only 20 hasn’t been rosy. To his credit, Hughes has battled and shown at times that he belongs. In fact; in only his second career start, Hughes threw a gem by tossing 6.1 innings of no-hit ball against a potent Texas line-up. The only reason he didn’t stay longer is because he left the game with a hamstring injury. It was a hamstring injury that cost him most of rest of the 2007 season.

Injuries and inconsistency have been the curse to Hughes thus far in his rollercoaster of a career. Hughes was held winless in 2008 after starting the season with an ERA of 9.00, an oblique injury that was originally thought to be a slight pull turned into a nightmarish 117 game absence.

This season, a couple of areas of concern from this season, it has to be his control as his K/BB ratio of 1.78 is lackluster for a guy with his a minor league ratio of 4.72. Also, is his knack of giving up the long ball. Through six starts and just under 30 IP, Hughes has given up six round-trippers, which heightens concerns about location.

So why then is Phil Hughes considered such a talent, with nothing but upside and with potential? You cannot deny that the kid has got the goods. If the former 1st round pick is able to put his finger on what he needs to do physically and mentally to be conditioned and dependable, he could be spectacular. He has all the tools to be a dominating force.
Being a Yankee is only icing on the cake as they are typically going to provide the run support that will help him in the win column.

The Case for Jordan Zimmermann

We turn our attention now to the Nationals current project, which to this point has been average at best in his major league rookie season. In his eight starts, Zimm has gone no less than 5.0 IP, but has given up five or more runs in five of those eight starts. There is much work to be done, but for the most part, he hasn’t looked out of place. He looks as if some fine tuning would really do the trick.

Now, I’m not suggesting a trip back down to the minor league level to re-establish his dominance or anything; however, I’m sure that pitching coach Randy St. Claire can attempt to make his mental game tougher, ensuring confidence on the mound will translate into better results.

Considering the seven HR’s that he’s given up in his 46 IP, he’ll surely have to work on that aspect of his game to lessen the ERA inflation. All in all, the 2nd round pick from 2007 has some shining statistics in his line; for instance, an impressive 3.36 K/BB ratio, along with a notable 9.20 K/9IP stat that displays the ability in the kids arm and causes further fantasy owner saliva at the potential this kid brings on the hill.

Being a pitcher on the Nats’ certainly has its’ downside. Wins, run support, solid defense (league “leading” 45 errors, to go with an MLB low .975 fielding percentage) are things that just don’t come with the territory. However, he will get the experience of growing in a situation where he can be the man. A top-level starter, where right now he is facing the number four or five in a rotation, next year, he may be slotted against the number one or two of most teams, as he’ll surely work his way up in rotation status.

Expect big things from this kid, even if it happens to be in the lowly baseball depths of D.C.

FANTALYTICS FINAL CALL

What is the call when discussing these two supposed future aces? Really, they both have their place in moving forward en route to many great years and all in all above standard careers. Both will be able to provide you help in categories with Hughes more than likely having the edge in the wins column, while Zimmermann an edge in K’s. Who is more likely to be talked about in five years from now?

Who gets you going more when you see them take the hill? While we’ve obviously had more opportunities to see Phil Hughes, as the Yankees garner much more nationwide attention and broadcast time, I beg of you to tune in to a Nationals game where Jordan Zimmermann is starting. He, even with his ERA over 6.00 is the type of pitcher that you would pay to watch.

He has such an impressive arsenal of pitches, and the type of movement on hard thrown stuff that makes you weep in your seat. In the words of the great golfer Gary Potter in the 1996 film spectacle Happy Gilmore, Zimmermann should try to “Harness in the good energy, block out the bad. Harness. Energy. Block. Bad.” If he’s able to do that, it’s not out of this world to say that this kid could be a perennial All-Star.

My guess is that Hughes will end up on the DL with some strange injury that will nag him yet again, while Zimmermann continues to grow and discover his ability. Final line on Zimm: 8W, 4.70 ERA, 190K, 1.37 WHIP.

FANTALYTICS – VOLUME 5

Joakim Soria vs Mariano Rivera

By Adam Forsyth

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In this edition, we will look at two premier closers at opposite ends of their careers. One in the twilight of his career with his name firmly placed amongst the greatest of all-time, and one young buck looking to establish himself, and slowly etch his name in the premier granite of fantasy elite closers.

On the surface, both are present day top-tier options, and while one closes for a team that many consider World Series favorites, the other closes for a team that will probably continue to battle to avoid being basement dwellers. This has become a position that they have comfortably settled in for over a decade – which may make some think that this case is a classic “Open-Close” type battle. However, here at Waiversharks.com, we believe that there is always more underneath the surface of the ocean and if you look deep into the dark blue waters, you’ll open yourself up to a whole new fantasy world.

FANTALYTICS takes pride in making sure that every nook and cranny is investigated before putting our seal of approval and will take no case lightly. I welcome you all to remove your pre-conceived notions and enjoy the read before understanding this edition entitled: The Case of the Closer – Old vs. New.

The Case for Joakim Soria

At only 24-years of age, The “Mexicutioner” has risen above the expectations of the baseball world, which includes the two teams that previously owned his rights prior to settling in Kansas City. I’m sure that while the Dodgers are fine now with Jonathan Broxton closing out games and San Diego isn’t concerned with giving Heath Bell a shot at replacing Trevor Hoffman; however, both teams couldn’t foresee the impact and confidence that the dynamic Chicano exudes on the mound. It’s safe to say that after swiping him in the Rule 5 draft of 2006, Soria’s stock has taken a tremendous jump.

He is a hard-throwing right hander that can pitch on consecutive nights and making 62 and 63 appearances in his first two full seasons which shows he is durable enough to withstand the daily grind that the MLB season brings.Soria looked even more comfortable in his first full season as closer in 2008 by getting the final out in 57 of his 63 games that he appeared, while racking up 42 saves along the way. This mark ranked third in the majors behind the record-setting performance 62 saves of Francisco Rodriguez and Jose Valverde’s 44 in Houston .

What’s impressive of Soria save total is the fact that only one of his saves was that of the cheap variety. By that, I mean out of all of his saves only one was tabbed by pitching less that 1.0 inning. This isn’t a low-blow to the eight that K-Rod accumulated in such a fashion, but more symbolic of how lights out Soria was.

Typically, Soria will enter the game at the beginning of the ninth and refuses to give the opposition any hope, as his 1.60 ERA, 0.86 WHIP and .169 BAA line clearly indicates. Furthermore, Soria was effective from his opening series against the Tigers straight through to his end of the season, without ever having back-to-back complications and only blowing three of his 45 save opportunities. (Valverde and K-Rod each blew seven save opportunities)

Some fantasy managers may be cautious to include him with the likes of Papelbon, Rivera, K-Rod and Nathan in the upper-echelon of closers and while they have reason to be cautious with the volatility of the closer position, I argue the fact that confidence plays a big part, as well as opportunity.

The Royals may not have the best team in the game, and may not win more than 75-80 games year after year, but when they have a lead of three runs or less heading into the final third of the game, the value of a great closer is expressed in the reaction the opposition has in their desperate attempts to score to avoid facing the closer.

Kansas City may not be taken seriously; however, with a weapon like number 48 coming out of the ‘pen to close out a game, the batters tend to tighten their grip and accept their fate more often than naught. For this simple fact alone, I have to believe that the Royals are headed in the right direction on the shoulders of the young talent, and on the arm of their closer.

The Case for Mariano Rivera

Umm, he’s Mariano Rivera. Case closed.

Seriously though, Mo has shown tremendous durability throughout his 14-year career with the Yankees and 2008 was no different. In fact for the Rivera’s arm has been salvaged the last few seasons without being depended on to close out games by pitching multiple innings at an alarming rate. With his 39 saves ranking him seventh in the majors, minus a shaky July (a whopping…3.27 ERA) Rivera didn’t have an ERA worse than 1.88 in any other month of the season. His dominance didn’t end there though, as the numbers for hits allowed by month were as follows: 4, 7, 6, 11, 9 and closed out with a 4-hit September. With only one blown save opportunity, a 1.40 ERA, 0.67 WHIP and a 12.8K/BB ratio, it’s hard to say that he is whimpering his way through his golden years.

Typically, there is always concern with a hard-throwing 39-year olds health, simply succumbing to the aches, pains, strains and discomfort over a long 162 game schedule; however, Joe Girardi can fully trust that Rivera will be honest in his health and won’t press him to pitch on consecutive nights, or much more than one inning unless completely necessary. I expect Rivera to continue his dominance and keep the pace with his standard incredible stats.

A transition to the new digs across the street from “The House That Ruth Built” may require fans to bestow as “The House that Mo Built” with Rivera having the opportunity to change the recent melancholy results from the last eight seasons since their last World Series win of 2000, by leading the Yankees to playoff glory.

Don’t consider that statement as a prediction, but while it’s understood that Derek Jeter is in fact the captain of the Yankees, it’s hard to deny that as Mariano Rivera goes, so do the Yankees. The fan favorite will undoubtedly bring his ‘A’ game to the hill each and every time, and continue to close out games en route to chasing the career saves mark currently held by the active but dwindling Trevor Hoffman.

Entering the second season of his three-year/$45-million deal, Rivera is currently 72 back of the new Brewers closer. Should Rivera sit close once the 2010 season comes to a close, perhaps one last contract to reach the monument at 41-plus years old will be necessary. One way or the other, the magical career of “The Panama Express” is chugging along full-steam ahead into 2009 and showing no signs or need for any repairs.

FANTALYTICS FINAL CALL

Two hard-throwing closers from sunny destinations? A classic showdown of old versus new? Comparable 2008 statistics?Teams on opposite ends of the spectrum?

I’m sure many readers (Yankees fans included) are wondering how this can go any way other than to stick with the dependable one, safely sticking with the RP with a long and proven track record.So, here goes.With the way the 2008 season panned out for Joakim Soria, “The Kid” certainly showed glimmers of “The Professor” in his knack for closing out games.

And on the flip-side, “The Professor” showed glimmers of “The Kid” in his resiliency and ability to dominate, throwing hard all season long and confusing hitters with the consistency of all seasons past.

So, how does FANTALYTICS recommend one over the other? Who should you have taken in your draft when Jonathan Papelbon, Francisco Rodriguez and Joe Nathan are off the table? Do you go with “Mo” or with “Jo”?

Most projection lists and average draft ranking have faithfully slid the dependable Rivera in their top three or four spot of closers; however, I feel that the lower ranked (typically sixth or seventh in most rankings) Joakim Soria is actually the way to go. I have all the confidence in the world that we aren’t dealing with a one-hit…er, 1-year wonder. Joakim Soria is and will be the real deal for many years to come. Be it a single year, keeper, or dynasty league, Soria (and the Royals for that matter) will continue to improve, as well as rise through the ranks of the MLB.

Furthermore, you can expect the Royals to play in many tight games which further increased his effectiveness and create a more impactful quantity of save opportunities for the slender Mexican phenom.The statistics will be tight for sure; however, with father time waiting to catch up to the Panamanian closing legend, durability may become the Achilles heel of this conversation and ultimately affect the outcome of this decision.

Taking risks and winning the small battles are what winning at fantasy baseball usually comes down to. Taking a “risk” on Soria is like cashing a check written by Bill Gates…It’s going to clear.