FANTALYTICS – VOLUME 10

Wandy Rodriguez (30) vs. Scott Richmond (29) vs. Randy Wells (26)
vs. J.A. Happ (26) vs. Jeff Niemann (26)

The other day I was going over the statistics of this season, in attempts to determine what I can do to make a push for the Fantasy League playoffs, when something sort of jumped out at me. With the real season at slowly climbing over the 100 games played mark, I recognized that there are an unusually high number of pitchers over the age of 26 that are experiencing their first taste of success.

Now, many may argue a name or two out of the five that I have selected for this edition of FANTALYTICS; however, truth be told, I easily could have added several other names.

This season has been an interesting one with many premiere SP disappointments (ah-hem…Cole Hamels, Francisco Liriano, Rich Harden, Carlos Zambrano, Scott Baker to name a few) and unfortunately for wide-eyed pre-season daydreamers, the list could go on and on. That isn’t even taking into consideration the always annoying injuries that derail any hopes of a successful campaign that tend to affect many managers long term plans. (see Brandon Webb, Jake Peavy, John Lackey, Scott Kazmir, Dice-K for quick reference)

Thankfully, surprise success stories can assist savvy fantasy managers, willing to take chances; so, in honor of that I have decided to throw the names of these roster saving heroes into a hat for this, the 10th edition of FANTALYTICS.

For some that are experiencing DL angst and are sitting on the fantasy playoff fence, hopefully this edition will open up another window of opportunity as it is tough to pry a Roy Halladay, or Tim Lincecum type at this stage of the season. Our hopes are to give you the gusto to potentially add one of the names on this list which may provide your squad with the boost that is necessary to surpass the competition, giving your team that well earned shot at post-season glory.

The Case for Wandy Rodriguez

At 30 years of age, Wandy is the “senior” of this group and arguably a name that may not belong in contention of a late bloomer as he has experienced limited success in previous seasons. However, I beg to differ.

Despite the occasional Astros throwback uniform night, Rodriguez has still managed his greatest success as a starter this year with a 10-6 record, a sub 3.00 ERA (2.63 at post time) and is holding opponents to a .242 batting average against. Another impressive stat is his WHIP, which has dropped to 1.21 (career 1.41 prior to 2009) as he has limited some of the big innings that he used to give up.

Unfortunately playing for a team that has been battling the .500 mark the entire season, Rodriguez is playing with purpose as he has been effective, chalking up 16 quality starts out of his 22 starts thus far.

While his ERA is still nearly a full run lower when pitching in his home park, (2.12 vs. 3.20) gone is the stigma of being a liability on the road. (we shouldn’t bring up the 2007 season, but I wouldn’t be able to sleep tonight if I didn’t…2.94 home ERA, to go with his 6.37 ERA on the road) He has improved his K/BB ratio and currently is sitting around the 3:1 mark, making him even more valuable to fantasy owners.

Exposing a flaw in Wandy’s game would have to be his continued knack for giving up the long ball. While not at an extremely alarming rate, the righty started the season out extremely effective in giving up only one big knock through May; however, since then has given up 14 in his last 11 starts. It will be critical to keep that number under wraps in order for him to finish strong for what has been a very strong fantasy season.

The Case for Scott Richmond

Who the heck is Scott Richmond some of you may say? With limited coverage to some on lower level fantasy standouts north of the border, this 29-year old Canadian righty had only 5 professional starts to his credit prior to the 2009 season.

With DL visits becoming “the cool thing to do” in T.O., Richmond issued a “look at me” to owners worldwide when he was granted the opportunity and he has shown more than anything that he can handle the challenge. With a very impressive 1.20 WHIP, (as a starter) Richmond has been steady when his turn in the rotation comes up, even if his 6-5 record doesn’t shout success. His 3.69 ERA (once again, as a starter) should at least pique your interest.

The Vancouver native has gone six innings deep in all but five of his 14 starts, and has yet to give up more than seven hits in an outing. While eliminating his three appearances in spot relief lowers his statistical line, it proves that he is a much more effective starter that requires the chance to find his groove.

Now, we all know that Scott Richmond isn’t a household name, and that his two starts against AL East opponents resulted in losses; however, if used as a number five, or even as a streaming spotter, Richmond’s value continues to rise like fresh baked bread.

Moving forward, even the most optimistic must recognize that as the season winds down, inner-division series frequency typically increases. This simply means that Richmond down the stretch will likely seem more tough match-ups against the Red Sox, Yankees and Rays which could hurt his fantasy value as the season comes to a close.

The Case for Randy Wells

Lou Pineilla has voiced his opinion in praising the 26-year old “Windy City Savior” suggesting that he fears where the Cubbies would be without the contributions of the burly righty. Sitting at 8-4 with an ERA under 3.00 (currently 2.73) Wells has been a pleasant surprise on a team that has been hot and cold all season long. Experiencing power droughts and scoring issues off and on since opening day, the Cubs pitching staff has had to deal with their own rollercoaster ride.

With each member of the Cubbies rotation having dealt with nagging injuries, including multiple DL-stints, it’s been a real blessing to have Randy Wells ready to take the ball every time he has been called upon. Steady and consistent, the Illinois native has 13 quality starts to his credit, out of his 16 starts.

It appears that Wells’ tireless work to garner control of his pitches has finally broken through, as he is holding opponents to a .249 BAA, while flashing an extremely impressive 1.14 WHIP through 100+ innings.

The knock on Wells prior to this season was his flair for giving up the long ball; however, in giving up a respectable nine round trippers this season, there doesn’t seem to be the same level of concern.

On the flip side, a glaring concern has to be his inability to get hitters out with RISP. Currently his 7.71 ERA with RISP must draw attention, while furthermore a 14.46 ERA with RISP w/2 outs indicates that he hasn’t been able to close the deal in ending an inning, or limiting the damage. Imagine if he were able to have or use an out pitch to his benefit just how more impressive his line would be. Give him time, he may just get there.

The Case for J.A. Happ

It is unfortunate that we are catching Happ shortly after experiencing the first two losses of his season; fortunately, he put to rest murmurs of a negative streak with his second CG gem against the Colorado Rockies. The Illinois native gave up only four hits, while punching out 10 Rockies hitters en route to his eighth win of the season. This Phillies stud lefty has seamlessly stepped into a rotation in need and is garnering strong consideration for an NL R.O.Y. nomination.

After the injury to Brett Myers brought panic to the City of Brotherly love, J.A. shifted from the bullpen where he was mostly effective, to a rotation spot and hasn’t looked back since. Even after the deadline acquisitions of an aging Pedro Martinez and reigning AL Cy Young winner (and fellow lefty) Cliff Lee, a strong case for Happ to remain in the rotation throughout their push to the playoffs has been made. In fact manager Charlie Manuel and GM Ruben Amaro gave the Phils’ #43 a vote of confidence in assuring that his spot in the rotation is secure.

It could be due to the fact that he has tossed 12 quality starts in the 15 he has toed the mound thus far. One of the reasons for such success is that he is extremely tough on lefties while wringing up 6.73K/9IP this season allowing him to get himself out of any jams that he has positioned himself in.

Experiencing somewhat of a reverse “Wandy Rodriguez Syndrome”, (while not as dramatic) Happ has been much more effective in road starts. With a 3.77 home ERA, along with 1.36 WHIP versus an eye-popping 1.47 ERA and 0.88 WHIP as a starter; however, don’t buy into forcing an “only start him on the road” mentality, as the Northwestern product is just fine.

It may just be a representation of the opponents faced ( St. Louis , Baltimore , Boston at home, compared to Arizona , Florida , San Diego and Washington on the road). One way or the other, it is still imperative that Happ improves this statistical anomaly to be fully respected.

The Case for Jeff Niemann

At 6-foot, 9-inches, and darn near 300 pounds, Jeff Niemann is an intimidating force to be reckoned with when stepping on the mound. The former first rounder (4th overall in 2004) has come into his own in Tampa this season, when it was expected that another top-tier Rays starter would grab the world by storm in 2009.

Now, it’s not that David Price hasn’t been serviceable, truth be told, if anyone on the Rays gets recognition for AL R.O.Y. this season, it should be this big Texan.

Leading the Rays starters in both wins and ERA, Niemann has kept the Tampa Bay boat afloat with his cutting edge goods, and his ability to mix speeds and locations to effectively keep batters on their toes. With two complete game shutouts to his credit this season, Niemann has gone deep into games more often than naught, and has 13 quality starts to his name this season (through 19 starts).

Now, it’s not that we wouldn’t expect this from a high pick such as Niemann, it’s just that in this factory of pitching currently based in Tampa , at 26, and it may have been felt that he was a lost foot soldier, seeking only the opportunity to be the man. Fortunately for the Rays, 2009 has been that opportunity.

Hindering the gentle giant is his lackluster inner division performance. I know it’s the AL East, arguably the most difficult in baseball; however, it’s just that being in that tough division, if you struggle as a SP, you will certainly struggle to find long-term success. Simply stated, he’ll need to perform much better in his remaining starts within the division to fully justify the recognition that he has garnered throughout the first 100 or so games of 2009.

FANTALYTICS FINAL CALL

With all this being said a decision has to be made. Who is worthy of being the top banana in this bunch of late-blooming potassium filled fruity crop? With the statistics stacked up, compared and reviewed, is there anyone that is a clear and deserving champion of the Hardy Mums? (Re: late blooming wildflower…sorry for the reference)

While you have to respect what they each has brought to the table this season, helping their teams overcome rotation concerns and injuries, it has been a pleasant surprise in watching them grow and develop their own arsenal. It is always a manager’s hope when they make a pick-up of someone that may be flying under the radar to develop into one of these stories, seizing the opportunity and we can only hope that moving forward they continue the success that the steam in their choo-choo train has chugged up thus far.

Needless to say, for the remainder of this season, (along with a keen eye on the 2010 season), I truly feel as if J.A. Happ is the leader in this brigade of belated pitching talents. Philadelphia is the defending World Series champion and even without Brett Myers in the fold, have one of the strongest groups of starting pitchers in the National League.

It has only gotten stronger with their deadline acquisitions and moving through the push for the playoffs, expect Happ to continue to be in the thick of things.

With a comfortable lead in the NL East, the Phillies will be tough to catch and should be a force in a playoff series.

Happ has the kind of stuff that makes a SP tough to hit off of, as he uses a dynamic change of speeds and has an arm angle that promotes natural deception which makes him tough to hit.

While he may not have the ‘K’-fficiency of Rodriguez, the control of Wells, the intimidating presence of Niemann, or the intangibles of Richmond, what Happ is, is a nice, neat total package that will make him fantasy worthy for many seasons to come.

Fearless Forsyth Foreshadow : (10 Starts) 72.1 IP, 6W, 68K, 19BB, 2.79 ERA, 1.09 WHIP

Read Wednesday’s Post…

The Case for Nick Markakis

What vehicle typifies Nick Markakis? Since Nick is a powerful throwback player, we see him in a muscle car vehicle similar to the original Fast & Furious car, which we believe was a 1970 Dodge Charger. He even resembles Vin Diesel a bit when he shaves his head!

Yes, Nick Markakis is having himself another solid season; however, we aren’t seeing a continued rise in his development. Is he going to be a career .300 hitter with 20 HR power and nice RBI contribution? While this isn’t something that fantasy owners would turn their nose up at, could he ever develop into a 30/30 type hitter that some deemed him prior to the 2008 season? Perhaps, but thus far, he hasn’t taken the strides to appear that he will be able to do so.

The 26-year old lefty’s numbers are nothing to sniff at, currently hitting over .290 with eight long balls and 45 RBI’s. His speed hasn’t been used effectively after topping out at 18 swipes in ’07; Nick dropped to 10 last year and has only two thus far after 70 games.

Markakis is still somewhat the focal point of the O’s offensive attack; however, with the surge of Adam Jones’ development along with the continued steady performance of Brian Roberts and the often under-valued Aubrey Huff, the pressure has been lightened to become the next great O-Bird. I don’t necessarily feel as if this is the ceiling for Nick the Greek (er…the half-Greek that is) and I truly expect him to have a second half surge that will raise the expectations and energize the confidence in his progress.

A glaring stat to be critical of on Markakis, would have to be his inability to start a rally. His BA without runners on is a paltry .268 and gets even worse when there is an out dipping to a measly .152. Should he be depended on as a catalyst in Maryland , especially after signing a big 6-year $66 million deal, it’s something that he is going to be depended on as a majority of AB’s over the course of a season come in such situations.

The Case for Andre Ethier

What car would make chef “Andre Ethier’s” mouth water? Playing out in LA, it’s gotta be a convertible! Andre is sort of a low key guy though – leaving the bling and media attention to Manny and Kemp – so we put Ethier in a silver James Bond 007 inspired Aston Martin V8 Vantage Roadster.

It has been a bit of a strange season for Andre Ethier. One that started out with great expectations and excitement about him taking the next step in his career, to that of disappointment from a bit of a slow start, followed by a heated month, to another slump, to…you get the picture.

With Manny Ramirez’ soon return to the fold after his 50 game suspension for steroid use, Ethier may be on tap for a 2nd half swell in his stats that will please fantasy owners and compliment their patience with his up and down trends.

The product of Arizona State University is on track to surpass his career highs in terms of power and stolen bases; however, across the board Ethier has slipped in the remainder of his peripherals. Runs scored, doubles and batting average have taken a noticeable decline which isn’t due to anything particular and can be excused as bits of bad luck and timing issues. Unfortunately at 27, it was previously assumed that this could be a break-out type season and with a crowded Dodgers outfield, Joe Torre may have to do some juggling to keep everyone in Dodger blue happy.

A slam on Ethier would have to be his inability to cash in when the table is set for him. Hitting only .233 with RISP and bringing home 33 RBI’s in 90 AB’s isn’t anything that puts a tag of elite amongst the top OF ranks, and things get even worse with two outs, dropping down near the Mendoza line to .205.

FANTALYTICS FINAL CALL

Ultimately, I keep wondering and thinking of legitimate reasons as to why I continue to do this to myself; however, a decision must be made. With so much on the line and only a tad more than half of the season remaining, who out of this group will continue to mash and become a post All-Star juggernaut at the dish? Who if any will have the fantasy air slowly leak out of their unlimited ceiling air balloon?

In a group of this level, if you are lucky enough to have one of these thoroughbreds honing the outfield behind first and second base, you are a happy camper, so let’s get that out of the way.

But seriously, a lot has to be taken into account and if all things are considered, I’m going to comfortably go with Nick Markakis as my respected winner, in a close near photo-finish with SUPER SPECTACULAR SUMMER RF EXTRAVAGANZA silver medalist Justin Upton. I truly feel as if the torrent pace that Upton has set in the first half won’t be able to keep up, all the while believing in Nick Markakis and his knack for upping the tempo and padding his stats after the All-Star break.

Find a Nick Markakis Bobblehead on eBay

Markakis’ numbers post midsummer classic (with the exception of last year when he was dealing with injuries) are tremendously better than in the cooler months prior and an increase of drastic percentage isn’t pushing the limits. There isn’t a guarantee that he will be able to dominate statistically in comparison to the others in their final lines comes seasons end; but, we are looking at the remainder of the season here and I see some cushy second half numbers when thoughts come popping into my crazy FANTALYTICAL mind.

Upton may be the winner when it comes to the final numbers come October, Cruz may belt the most round-trippers, Pence may have the greatest peripheral line contributing in everything from triples to OBP, Ethier may surge with Man-Ram back and not lose any PT in a jammed Dodger line-up; however, it is the left-handed #21 that I see taking the cake when it comes to performance from this point on.

HAPPY CANADA DAY!!!

The Case for Nelson Cruz

What should Nelson Cruz - cruise in? A 2010 G8 Sport Truck or modern day El Camino! Sure, the project was scraped by General Motors, but with the dough Nelson will be making the next few years, he could afford to build his own!

Power to burn in a notoriously favorable home park gives this chic pick from previous seasons a gold star as Nelson Cruz has exceeded any expectations after a couple of iffy opportunities of failure. At 28 (will turn 29 on July 1st) it appears that Cruz has allowed disgruntled owners to easily forget the challenges endured in yesteryear by going deep 18 times while clubbing home 45 big RBI’s through his first 250 AB’s. Throw in his 11 swipes and this kid is really showing his worth in his first full-time, full season gig.

Cruz has touched close to a .300 BA on several occasions this season; however, sitting at the mid .260 range is probably an indication of where he will comfortably settle. Striking out nearly 25% of the time will hurt this average, and should he find the plate discipline that currently eludes him, he’ll be a more reliable .275 to .285 hitter.

The injury to Josh Hamilton and struggles of Chris Davis don’t help Cruz out as far as line-up protection goes; however, he is currently being relied upon to be a main contributor to a confusing Rangers attack and has to be considered a staple in the middle of the order for the near future.

Take note though; in being the “senior” of this group and currently in his “prime years” of professional baseball, Cruz is probably displaying what we should expect for the next five years right now. We must consider this when comparing him with the four others within this group.

The Case for Hunter Pence

What should Hunter Pence drive? Well, Pence is from Texas , so a Cadillac, but he’s tall so a shiny pearl white Escalade suits him…and since he’s a pretty efficient player – let’s make it a Hybrid baby!

After a somewhat forgettable “two steps back” season of 2008, this Texan has solidified himself as a solid five-tool fantasy contributor returning to the promise displayed in his rookie season. Hitting comfortably over the .320 mark, while powering double digit HR’s and close to double digit steals, Pence is being used effectively in the line-up by not being placed in a pressure filled position and commonly following the likes of a Carlos Lee, Miguel Tejada or the Big Puma to provide him with some quality pitches each time he digs in.

Pence isn’t getting the tremendous RBI opportunities that someone in the 3-4-5 spots do; however, he maintains a near .300 BA (currently .298) with runners on base and an above average .333 BA with RISP with two outs. This shows that Pence is getting more comfortable when submersed in high-pressure situations.

If we had to come up with a knock about Pence, it would have to be with his struggles for consistency. While it hasn’t been as magnified this season; last season, Pence had months of .260, .346, .200, .294, .223 and .302 and while his extra base power remained steady, his ability to get on base, steal and score runs was directly affected. Pence has worked hard to rid himself of any stigma of being an inconsistent hitter which has pleased fantasy owners that bought into this blue chip stud years ago.

The Case for Justin Upton

Justin Upton – Would Updog pimp his ride? Probably – But for sure, it’s gotta be bulked up & powerful! And since Baby Upton plays for the Baby Snakes out in Arizona - what better powerful desert crawler is there than a Hummer? …& maybe even a couple of “ladies” to help push BJ’s younger brother out of a sand dune!

After a somewhat disappointing 2008, many fantasy owners weren’t sure of what to expect from the MLB’s younger Upton brother and with the oft-anemic D’Backs offense constantly being a concern, you wouldn’t think that having a 21-year old leading the charge would be possible. However, Justin Upton is certainly laying the foundation for what will hopefully be an impressive fantasy career.

Find a Justin Upton Bobblehead on eBay

Ranking 1, 2 or 3 in every statistical team category at his age is more than impressive and through 71 team games having an OPS above 1.000 is nothing short of phenomenal. He has cut down on his whiffs by nearly an entire AB (2.94AB/K in ’08 compared to 3.87AB/K this season) all the while appearing more patient each time he digs in. Positioned 3rd in the line-up, Upton has been given every opportunity to thrive and is showing that he isn’t willing to move from such an honor.

Upton is one homer away from tying last years’ mark of 15 (in over 100 less AB’s), is challenging to score 100 runs and could inevitably reach the 30/30 plateau. Not bad for being on a team that ranks 3rd from the bottom in terms of BA that typically depends on its’ pitching staff to win games.

Solid concern of the 2005 1st overall pick and his whiff-ability has a tendency to expose some other weaknesses (.267 BA with RISP), as striking out in big moments and his inefficiency in battling back when behind in a count are regularly spotlighted. You can discount a majority of that to his youth and lack of exposure; however, this will definitely be a key focus for his future development.

Tune in Thursday July 2nd to read the other two Right Field playas - and who we think is the #1 fantasy baseball right fielder for 2009!

FANTALYTICS – VOLUME 8

by Adam Forsyth

Phil Hughes vs. Jordan Zimmermann

In this edition of FANTALYTICS we have a pair of arms that the future appears to be nothing but bright. This is a tale of two 23-year olds that have taken totally different paths to get where they are right now. It is a tale of the biggest of big markets, versus the smallest of small markets. A story of a major league dynasty against a…well, I suppose you can just remove the “dy” and consider this a nasty organization that is struggling to find the right mix. Ah yes folks, we’re talking Phil Hughes of the mighty, free-spending New York Yankees, against the zip filled arm of Washington Nationals Jordan Zimmermann.

Both are young and dynamic in their own right. Both are somewhat struggling to this point of the season; however both are pegged as future top-end rotation starters, if not team aces. So strap yourself in folks, as it’s time for FANTALYTICS!

The Case for Phil Hughes

In speaking about the different paths, the Yankees attempts to bring Hughes to the big club on regular duty in 2007 at the tender age of only 20 hasn’t been rosy. To his credit, Hughes has battled and shown at times that he belongs. In fact; in only his second career start, Hughes threw a gem by tossing 6.1 innings of no-hit ball against a potent Texas line-up. The only reason he didn’t stay longer is because he left the game with a hamstring injury. It was a hamstring injury that cost him most of rest of the 2007 season.

Injuries and inconsistency have been the curse to Hughes thus far in his rollercoaster of a career. Hughes was held winless in 2008 after starting the season with an ERA of 9.00, an oblique injury that was originally thought to be a slight pull turned into a nightmarish 117 game absence.

This season, a couple of areas of concern from this season, it has to be his control as his K/BB ratio of 1.78 is lackluster for a guy with his a minor league ratio of 4.72. Also, is his knack of giving up the long ball. Through six starts and just under 30 IP, Hughes has given up six round-trippers, which heightens concerns about location.

So why then is Phil Hughes considered such a talent, with nothing but upside and with potential? You cannot deny that the kid has got the goods. If the former 1st round pick is able to put his finger on what he needs to do physically and mentally to be conditioned and dependable, he could be spectacular. He has all the tools to be a dominating force.
Being a Yankee is only icing on the cake as they are typically going to provide the run support that will help him in the win column.

The Case for Jordan Zimmermann

We turn our attention now to the Nationals current project, which to this point has been average at best in his major league rookie season. In his eight starts, Zimm has gone no less than 5.0 IP, but has given up five or more runs in five of those eight starts. There is much work to be done, but for the most part, he hasn’t looked out of place. He looks as if some fine tuning would really do the trick.

Now, I’m not suggesting a trip back down to the minor league level to re-establish his dominance or anything; however, I’m sure that pitching coach Randy St. Claire can attempt to make his mental game tougher, ensuring confidence on the mound will translate into better results.

Considering the seven HR’s that he’s given up in his 46 IP, he’ll surely have to work on that aspect of his game to lessen the ERA inflation. All in all, the 2nd round pick from 2007 has some shining statistics in his line; for instance, an impressive 3.36 K/BB ratio, along with a notable 9.20 K/9IP stat that displays the ability in the kids arm and causes further fantasy owner saliva at the potential this kid brings on the hill.

Being a pitcher on the Nats’ certainly has its’ downside. Wins, run support, solid defense (league “leading” 45 errors, to go with an MLB low .975 fielding percentage) are things that just don’t come with the territory. However, he will get the experience of growing in a situation where he can be the man. A top-level starter, where right now he is facing the number four or five in a rotation, next year, he may be slotted against the number one or two of most teams, as he’ll surely work his way up in rotation status.

Expect big things from this kid, even if it happens to be in the lowly baseball depths of D.C.

FANTALYTICS FINAL CALL

What is the call when discussing these two supposed future aces? Really, they both have their place in moving forward en route to many great years and all in all above standard careers. Both will be able to provide you help in categories with Hughes more than likely having the edge in the wins column, while Zimmermann an edge in K’s. Who is more likely to be talked about in five years from now?

Who gets you going more when you see them take the hill? While we’ve obviously had more opportunities to see Phil Hughes, as the Yankees garner much more nationwide attention and broadcast time, I beg of you to tune in to a Nationals game where Jordan Zimmermann is starting. He, even with his ERA over 6.00 is the type of pitcher that you would pay to watch.

He has such an impressive arsenal of pitches, and the type of movement on hard thrown stuff that makes you weep in your seat. In the words of the great golfer Gary Potter in the 1996 film spectacle Happy Gilmore, Zimmermann should try to “Harness in the good energy, block out the bad. Harness. Energy. Block. Bad.” If he’s able to do that, it’s not out of this world to say that this kid could be a perennial All-Star.

My guess is that Hughes will end up on the DL with some strange injury that will nag him yet again, while Zimmermann continues to grow and discover his ability. Final line on Zimm: 8W, 4.70 ERA, 190K, 1.37 WHIP.

FANTALYTICS – VOLUME 7

By: Adam Forsyth

Who is Fantasy Baseball’s Top Catcher: V-mart or McCann?

It’s been a while, so here at Waiversharks.com, we thought we would throw out a first quarter challenge to owners pondering the best possible backstop option in 2009! With the return of “The Bearded One” from the DL, what better time to square off head-to-head with the all-star masked man whose successful return from a forgettable 2008 was a pre-season hot topic?

While there are more top-tier catchers than ever with fantasy qualities that easily draw attention (and manager saliva) to their eye-popping stats, these two guys are both easily the top notch options for anyone seeking a fantasy title. (As Holden may have quipped - nothing is phony about either of them.) My job is to bring you the tools to understand, and I will attempt to break down the stats as well as provide you with all of the intangibles to do what is right for your team and your shot at fantasy superiority.

The Case for Victor Martinez

I hope that I wasn’t alone prior to the season when I chose to totally ignore the thrust of fantasy gurus that chose to write off the switch-hitting phenom. Not that anyone could imagine the return to form that the sometimes catcher, sometimes first baseman has displayed through the first quarter of the season. To be honest, there was a lot of concern even from the Indians staff of the sudden drop in power experienced in 2008 from the dependable 20 plus home run stud.

He has seemingly silenced all critics though, as at only 30 years of age, 2008 could only be understood as an anomaly and not a reality caused by years of abuse behind the plate. As mentioned before, this years’ start at the dish has definitely shot him up to the top ranks of catcher options, and while batting over .400 is no easy task at any point in the season, Martinez is looking extremely comfortable again.

With a slumping Tribe offense, expect V-Mart to constantly be the focal point of pulling them out of their troubles, as his leadership capabilities will allow him to help the youngsters out of slumps. Hopefully; a welcomed return from a finally healthy Travis Hafner, will only further the protection he receives at the plate.

The Case for Brian McCann

A bushier beard has swallowed the 25-year old backstops face, but thankfully has also allowed us to forget about the slow start that puzzled many owners early on in this year’s campaign. It has allowed us to come to grips that the struggles at the dish were nothing more than the issues with his vision, and his inability to play through the struggles instead of getting it taken care of.

One way or the other, since returning from the DL; and his newly issued specs, the “outdoorsman” has been mashing at a tremendous pace upping his average nearly .100 points. While he only has three long balls to his name this year, his stats across the board are consistent enough with that of what he has produced in his first three full seasons behind home plate in Atlanta that Braves fans and fantasy owners alike can breathe a collective sigh of relief.

With the opportunity to forget about his vision troubles, McCann will have to get used to having the goggles on, but if the first 30 post DL at-bats are any indication, he should be fine. Expect a full rebound from the kid and while the season is a marathon and not a sprint, we can assume the re-energized swagger to continue through September.

FANTALYTICS FINAL CALL

It wouldn’t be crazy to just call it a draw, as these two backstops can pull up numbers that would be parallel over the course of a full season. With around 40 games in the books, who will put up the best numbers the rest of the way though? Is it unimaginable to believe that Martinez can continue to hit at above a .400 clip? Probably so. Can McCann’s torrid pace in return from the DL continue through the dog days of summer while catching in over 120 games? Probably not.

So, somewhere in the middle would be the easiest solution right? Well, as usual, some of this is based on intuition and a hard look at the numbers. Not just this years’ numbers, but from seasons past as well.

Intuition leads me to believe that the Indians can’t be as bad as they’ve played and at only 3.5 games ahead of the deplorable Washington Nationals as the worst team in baseball, Eric Wedge’s job is certainly on the line. So, things can only get better for a team that could and probably should compete in the ho-hum AL Central. They may let him go and decide to go with an even more prominent youth movement; however, I expect them to at least be able to shake off any off the troubles and at least make a go of it the rest of the way.

You have to assume that a surge by the Indians can only help keep Martinez ’ numbers up…right? I can confidently say yes to that answer.

Intuition also leads me to believe that neither of these guys can really continue to mash at the same pace, so what it comes down to is some hard numbers. Martinez will split duties behind the plate with Kelly Shoppach and play first as mentioned at nearly a 60/40 split to keep him fresh and allow the wear and tear to be minimal. This has to be considered a plus, as while the Braves brought him David Ross to eliminate some of the stress that a 162 game schedule can have on a catcher who’s bat is tough to take out of a line-up, it is McCann that will probably be crouching 80 percent of the teams final 120 games, or around 96 games. Compared to the probable 65-70 that Martinez will catch in and that is a big deal. (Just ask any major league catcher how big of a deal that is!)

Each player has stats that are strong and similar throughout their career pre and post All-Star break, meaning that neither are more strong at a certain point of the schedule, which is a nice plus to both, because you don’t have to worry about a great start, slow finish type player that you can count on. While McCann has a touch more speed, I think if you had to make a choice, V-Mart has the more lethal power bat.

All of that being said, and the return to form being a non-issue now, I think that you have to determine that Victor Martinez is the legitimate choice to this edition of FANTALYTICS.

You can expect the ridiculous numbers to tail off a bit; however, a line of .320-25-100, along with 100+ runs scored from a catcher eligible position put him up there in the realm of the Fantasy Elite. So I say, welcome back Victor, it’s nice to see you again!